Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, May 9,2010

Ben Burns

MLB GOM - 10* Houston Astros

King Creole

2* Cavaliers / Celtics Under 197

Sunday's OU line in Game Four is on the high side for an Eastern Conference playoff game... particularly in the later rounds. On Friday night, the line was 193 points for Game Three. The oddsmakers have made a big jump for Sunday's game.... with a line in the range of 196.5 to 197 points.

This worked for yesterday's winner (Hawks / Magic UNDER)... and it applies again in this game.
2-12 O/U since 96: All NBA Playoff Games in Rounds 2, 3, or 4 for EASTERN CONFERENCE opponents... when the OU line is > 193 points (Cavs / Celtics). This has gone 1-9 O/U in Game Three or GREATER... and a perfect 0-5 O/U in Game Four or GREATER.

Let's look at the '2/4/ game specifically. That would be Round TWO / Game FOUR...
3-10 O/U since 06 / 2-8 O/U since 07: All '2/4' games. If both teams went 'OVER' in their last game, the results improve to 1-7 O/U... and when the OU line is 210 195 points and < 200 points....

Dave Cokin

Matchup: San Diego at Houston
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CORREIA, K vs. (R) OSWALT, R

Play: San Diego (ML +112)

If you're looking at just the pitchers involved in this game, you'd probably prefer siding with Roy Oswalt. The Astros ace is in very good form, and he's got monster lifetime numbers against the Padres. But there's more to this than just starting pitching. The late inning relief talent is much stronger on the Padres side, and even though the Friars are not exactly an offensive juggernaut, they're hitting it better than the feeble Astros. It looks to me like Oswalt will have to go at least seven very strong innings here, unless Houston finds a way to get something going with their bats. The bottom line is that even with Oswalt throwing, it's tough to justify the Astros being favorite over anyone right now. But since they are, that compels me to make on play on the Padres to complete the weekend sweep.

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Matchup: Milwaukee at Arizona
Listed pitchers must go: (L) NARVESON, C vs. (R) KENNEDY, I

Play: Milwaukee (ML +140)

The Brewers are having a very strong week. They knocked off the Dodgers twice in three tries, and were it not for some shoddy defense they would have the series sweep. Milwaukee has another chance to complete a whitewash here as they gun for their third straight against the Diamondbacks. This game is a classic example of a number that is being overly influenced by the starting pitchers. No argument that Ian Kennedy is throwing very well for Arizona. But the Diamondbacks still become an underdog in any game that is close in the late innings because of their lousy bullpen. Also, you've got a Brewers team with a good road record getting a very generous price from a team that's just .500 at home. It's all about getting good value, and in this spot, that's the deciding factor that has me on the Brewers to notch another win.

BIG AL

3* Celtics +1

3* Rockies -126
3* Red Sox -116
3* Rangers -167

Opinion Orioles +127

James Patrick

Matchup: Phoenix at San Antonio
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Over (206.5 -110)

Suns vs. Spurs 8:00 p.m. est. TNT (Phoenix leads series 3-0)
HC Greg Popovich made a mini-makeover with the addition of Richard Jefferson and San Antonio is still one of the elite teams in the NBA this season. The Boys from the Lone Star State found out in game #3 that their bench is going to have to play a huge role if the outcome of this series is going to change. HC Popovich experimented with some combination's that gave the Suns problems. Stopping the penetration of the middle by Steve Nash has the Spurs coaching staff going crazy. HC Greg Popovich has a magic number that keeps popping up when we consider an investment on this team. Our magic number for the Spurs in this game is (96) as they have lost only (11) of their past (72) playoff games when posting (96) or more points. San Antonio has put an end to the Phoenix postseason run (5) times since 2003. This series has played Over the Total in (5) of (6) match-ups and the Spurs are (5-0) ATS Over the Total off a double digit home loss in their prior home game. Surely the Spurs will get their Magic Number of (96) but the problem will be holding down the Red Hot Suns. We also note that Spurs HC Popovich is (87-64) ATS Over the Total after a loss by (10) or more points during his time as Head Coach of San Antonio. Western Conference scoring slug fest as the Spurs try an remain in this series to fight another day.
3* #727 Phoenix - San Antonio Over the Total

Steve Budin

25 Dime Spurs -2 1st Half

Jeff Benton

20 Dime: Boston Celtics

There’s just no way. There’s just no way the Cavaliers are going to shoot nearly 60 percent again today as they did in Game 3. There’s just no way the Cavaliers are going to get to the free-throw line 34 times (let alone make 31 foul shots) again today as they did in Game 3. There’s just no way the Cavaliers are going to outrebound Boston 45-30. And there’s just no way that Boston is going to miss 13 of 17 three-point field goals and get a combined 18 points in 70 minutes from Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, as happened in Game 3.

The point: While Cleveland absolutely deserved to win Game 3, there’s NO WAY the Cavaliers are 29 points better than Boston. That was just one of those “perfect storm” games where everything Cleveland did went right and everything the Celtics did went very, very wrong. You can expect Boston, which outplayed the Cavaliers for most of Game 1 and all of Game 2 in Cleveland, to come out today with a vengeance. After all, this team has already made dubious history, as the Game 2 loss was the worst home playoff defeat in the Celtics’ glorious history. If that doesn’t fire up Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Rondo, etc., nothing will.

To show you just how fluky Cleveland’s performance was in Game 3, consider that in the first two contests (on their home floor), the Cavs shot a combined 66-for-148, or 45 percent. On Friday, they went 44-for-74 (59.5 percent). In Games 1 and 2, Boston had an 84-73 rebounding edge. On Friday, Cleveland was +15 on the boards.

One more point to make: Going back to their thrilling seven-game playoff series in 2008, these teams have met 18 times and they’ve split those 18 meetings. And over the past 16 meetings, only once has a team won consecutive games, with the squads alternating wins and losses in the last five clashes going back to mid-March. Also, only once in their last 27 postseason contests have the Celtics lost back-to-back games.

This is serious gut-check time for Boston, and I’m banking on the team that showed up in that 18-point win at Cleveland in Game 2 to take the floor today. I’m not predicting a similar 18-point Celtics blowout, but I’m confident that this one will be in the bag with four minutes left to play.

ATS Lock Club

8 Units Suns +3.5

4 Units Orioles

3 Units Red Sox

Lenny Del Genio

20* Phoenix +3.5

Bob Balfe

Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5

In one of the tougher and more complicated series in these playoffs, we face a Game 4 with various assortments of confusing information and variables. Both teams picked up huge road victories via blowouts. Boston rarely loses two games in a row at home, especially in the playoffs. LeBron James proved me wrong in Game 3 that he, in fact, can beat the Celtics by himself. This is a perfect example of how bettors can spiral downward and fail to be successful. The majority of bettors who took the Celtics in Game 3 want a rematch and will bet on Boston simply to validate their analysis in Game 3. The fact is, Cleveland is the play. They have made all the necessary adjustments to not allow Boston to breathe any additional life into this series. We are going to hop on the LeBron bandwagon temporarily and take the smart bet here. Game 3's loss is over and done with, do not retaliate - we will get Cleveland back later, but for now, take the Cavs.

Rocketman

5* Toronto

4* Phoenix

Dwayne Bryant

Houston Astros

Nick Parsons

10* Suns / Spurs Under 207

Marc Lawrence

3 Units TB Rays