Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Ottawa -170
For a number of significant reasons I believe the Senators will take care of business in their own barn tonight.
Carolina kept it slim hopes alive with a titanic effort last night in Montreal, winning 2-1; suffice to say I believe the Hurricanes will be gassed this evening.
Cam Ward has been sharp since his return from injury, stopping all but two shots over two games, but he has a horrible 5.57 GAA in his last three starts in Ottawa.
The Hurricanes always struggle in Canada's capital; 1-5 their last six games played in Ottawa.
On the other side of the ice: Ottawa is 5-0 its last five and 9-3 its last 12 at Scotiabank Place.
The Sens need just one point to return to the playoffs after missing last year and they'll be looking for a sixth straight victory tonight.
“Last year, we let a lot of people down and let ourselves down, not being able to compete for the Stanley Cup,” forward Chris Kelly recently said. “To be one win away from being where we want to be is definitely a good feeling.”
Ottawa has come alive on the offensive end; 16 goals over the winning streak; in fact the Sens are coming off an impressive 5-4 OT road win over the Capitals on Tuesday.
Brian Elliot has been very sharp for the most part as well, and always saves his best for the Hurricanes; Elliot is 2-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA at home vs. Carolina.
Rocketman
Philadelphia -125
Philadelphia is 18-1 SU and ATS overall vs NY Islanders the past 3 years. Philadelphia is 8-1 SU and ATS at NY Islanders the past 3 seasons. Flyers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. Atlantic. Flyers are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Islanders are 8-17 in their last 25 overall. Islanders are 19-41 in their last 60 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Islanders are 42-94 in their last 136 vs. Eastern Conference. Islanders are 3-7 in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Islanders are 15-36 in their last 51 Thursday games. Islanders are 3-8 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 12-39 in their last 51 vs. Atlantic. Flyers are 22-7-1 in the last 30 meetings in New York. Flyers are 41-18-5 in the last 64 meetings. We'll play Philadelphia for 4 units tonight!
Tony George
Dayton -3
The Tarheels are young and inexperienced and the Dayton Flyers have done nothing but dominate almost everyone they have played in this tourney. They press on defense and that should give NC and their young guards, who turn it over anyway, a ton of issues and some cheap transition baskets tonight. Have no doubt, Dayton is an aggressive, high scoring team who takes chances and they should give NC, who has struggled to win in every game in this tourney, a big run for their money tonight. Dayton by 7. Play 1 Unit on Dayton.
Lenny Del Genio
Dayton -2.5
NIT Championship – North Carolina, the defending NCAA Champs take on Dayton tonight in Madison Square Garden for the NIT Championship. For the Tar Heels, it will be provide a little solace for such a non-NC like season, but for the Flyers it will be a momentum builder for next season.NC hasn’t received much support over the past three games as they were underdogs in each game. Before advancing to Madison Square Garden they went on the road and beat a tough Mississippi State team by a bucket, then went to UAB and won 60-55. On Tuesday night here in New York they won a barn burner over a scrappy Rhode Island team 68-67.Dayton comes into this championship game tonight having been a bookmaker’s nightmare covering in all four of their NIT contests. They won their semifinal game Tuesday night beating Mississippi 68-63 despite hitting only 34% of their shots. However, this Dayton team can play defense as they have held all four of their NIT opponents to less than 37% shooting from the field. The Sportsbooks opened this game with Dayton favored by 1.5 points and it was quickly bet up to the minus 3 points. We think the number has moved in the proper direction. This NC has been playing better in this tournament but we think that Dayton has the better team and will shut down this Tar Heel squad. As we mentioned Dayton is a great defensive team allowing only 62 points per game and we note that NC this season is an awful 1-7 ATS against teams that surrender 65 or less points per game. Play on Dayton!
Marc Lawrence
North Carolina +3
When the Tar Heels take on the Flyers at the Garden in New York City in the NIT championship game Thursday night they will take the court with an array of winning edges in their favor. It starts with head coach Roy Williams, who is 219-28 SU in non conference games, including 21-6 SU and ATS when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, if the last win was by less than 20 points. FYI: he's also 10-1 SU and ATS in this role when taking on an opponent with a win percentage of less than .810 on the season. In addition, Williams is 4-0 SU and ATS as a non conference dog versus sub .700 opposition, and 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS versus Atlantic 10 opposition - including 2-0 SU and ATS as a dog. In fact, he beat Dayton by 30 points in their last meeting on 12/31/2006, as a 22-point favorite. Finally, Williams is 3-0 SU and ATS in his career as an NIT dog (all this season). From our powerful database we note that defending NCAA champions are 6-0 SU and ATS in NIT games versus opponents that were either a favorite or dog of less than seven points in its last game. Add to that the fact that teams in NIT championship games, off a SU underdog win, are 7-2 SU and ATS when taking on an foe of back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including 6-0 SU and ATS if they are either a favorite of dog of less than three points in this game. With Dayton having been a dog in all four meetings against ACC opponents, we see no reason for them to be changing roles here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on North Carolina.
Bob Balfe
Portland +5
The Denver Nuggets are coming off of a long road trip in which they did not shoot the ball very well. When scoring is down for Denver, they have a really good shot at not winning the game because they are a very poor defensive basketball team. Alternatively, the Trailblazers have been playing excellent defense as of late and are on a roll heading into the playoffs. It is hard to come home after a long road trip, sleep in your own bed, and then go back to work the next day against a tough and hungry Portland team. This spread is at least two points too high (excellent arbitrage). Take the points with Portland.
Mike Lineback
Orlando -2
Dallas playing b2b, 3 in 4 with late travel Lnight, after stealing an OT win in Memphis. Dallas came back from 10+ points with 3 minutes to play. Tonight I think they give one back. Kidd, Nowitzki & Terry played 40+ minutes, with Dirk playing nearly playing 46 minutes and making all the comeback shots. Meanwhile, Orlando come to town rested & relatively healthy. Carter & Pietrus are slated to play, which gives Stan Van Gundy 10 quality players to wear out the Mavs. And, Van Gundy is one of the best coaches in league when he has time to prepare for an opponent. Magic off L3 days. Not to mention, Dallas are an incredible 9-27 ATS at home this season & 5-23 ATS their L28 games on Thursday. Take Orlando.
Erin Rynning
Portland +5