Ben Burns
10* Mariners
10* Mets/Astros Over
8* LA Dodgers
10* 76ers / Heat Over
10* Portland
10* Chicago / Vancouver Under
Jimmy Boyd
5* 76ers +5.5
4* Blazers -5.5
5* Phillies
DAVID MALINSKY
4* ST. LOUIS/WASHINGTON OVER 8.5
An afternoon game after a double-header can often mean major headaches in terms of laying out a pitching rotation. And that is exactly what we have here. So with the markets giving Tom Gorzelanny and Kyle Lohse more respect than they deserve, we have excellent value in a game that does not require an offensive explosion to get us in the money.
In an afternoon setting, we start our bullpen fatigue ratings with anyone that threw more than 20 pitches the previous day, or worked more than one full inning. That flags Chad Gaudin, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen and Colin Balester for Washington, and Fernando Salas, Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte and Eduardo Sanchez for St. Louis. Let’s also put an * next to current Cardinal closer Mitchell Boggs, who threw 15 pitches in the night-cap, and has not worked in a back-to-back setting yet this season.
That takes us to the Gorzelanny/Lohse matchup, and there are holes to be found. Gorzelanny is off to an 0-1/5.56 start in which getting the ball down in the strike zone has been a major problem – he has already been tagged for three HR’s over 11.1 frames, with an alarming count of 11 fly-ball outs vs. only three on the ground. With his command nothing special (38.3 percent of his pitches have missed the strike zone), he is not a likely candidate to work deeply here, which brings that weakened National bullpen into play.
Meanwhile Lohse is getting a lot of respect off of his 2-1/2.82 opening, with solid peripherals, but his stuff is such that extended strong periods are rare. Without the kind of velocity to miss bats he has to pitch to contact, and many times what looks like a positive cycle is actually a case of the geometry of the game playing well for him. Here is the best way to break him down. We have a category called “Good” starts, those being games in which a pitcher worked six IP or more, and allowed two ER or less (if the unearned count gets too high, sometimes we will scratch the game from the list). Lohse has had nine such games qualify the last three seasons, and off of the first eight his ensuing start worked to an awful 1-6/9.49. Now he is off of back-to-back “good” outings, and extending to a third is asking a lot for a guy with his limitations. Admittedly injuries played a pair in his 2009-10 showings, and he is healthy now, but he is a journeyman that has posted an ERA of less than 4.18 once in 10 career seasons. This game is being priced on his recent statistical form, and history shows us that he can not maintain that.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play St. Louis (-165) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
St. Louis pitcher, Kyle Lohse has won 7 consecutive games as a home favorite of -150 to -175 and he has an ERA of 2.82 this season. Washington has lost 6 of the last 7 games vs. St. Louis on the road and pitcher, Tom Gorzelanny has an ERA of 8.44 in raod games this season.
Play Florida (-130) over Pittsburgh (Bonus)
Play Boston (-155) over Los Angeles Angels (Bonus)
Chris Jordan
400* Rays
100* Red Sox
100* Heat
ATS Winners
Bulls/Pacers Over 189
Bulls -4.5
Heat -4.5
Blazers/Mavs Over 186
Dbacks/Reds Over 8.5
Dbacks +125
Cardinals -1.5 +125
Ben Burns
10* Chicago / Indiana Over
This is wrong, correct play is 10* 76ers / Heat Over
Larry Ness
10* Portland -5.5
9* Chicago Over 189
10* Seattle Mariners -137
Larry Ness
10* Portland -5.5
10* Seattle -137
Scott Rickenbach
10* Chicago / Tampa Bay Over
Ben Burns
10* Mariners
10* Mets/Astros Over
8* LA Dodgers
10* 76ers / Heat Over
10* Portland
10* Chicago / Vancouver Under
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Houston Astros +125
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Dallas Mavericks
4 Units Miami Heat
Bryan Leonard
Miami at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia +5.5
The Heat have been an enigma this season, looking unbeatable on occasions but very human at other times. They have beaten Philadelphia nine straight games and are coming off a 94-73 beat down in Miami. Now the overconfident Heat take to the hostile environment of Philadelphia to try to go up 3-0 in this series.
Teams who are down in a series and are coming off an embarrassing performance give it all the next game out, especially if playing at home. Miami had 33 more free throws than the Sixers in the first two games and that simply won't continue with the venue change. The star treatment is much easier to project when playing at home and that won't be the case for the Heat here. We expect Philadelphia to let it all out tonight as they try to make this a series once again.
BIG AL
GOM - Portland - 5.5