Lenny Del Genio
Detroit -105
The Tigers were $125 favorites when the game was posted and have been bet down to $105 favorites. With Detroit’s ace Verlander on the hill we can’t pass up this cheap price. The Tigers won last night 4-3 to snap the Angels five game winning streak. Verlander has started slow this season, but we look for him to get back on track tonight. All the square money has come in on the Angels giving us tremendous line value on the Tigers. Late Steam Play on Detroit!
Marc Lawrence
Portland -1
The Trailblazers host the Suns in Game Three of this opening round Western Conference showdown looking to rebound from a 29-point pounding suffered at Phoenix on Tuesday. That sets the table for tonight's fray as team's at home in Game Three of the playoffs, playing off a previous SU home loss and a SU and ATS loss in their last game, are 11-2 SU and ATS since 1990 if they covered the spread by three or more points in Game One. If these same teams owns a win percentage of .535 or more on the season, they improve to 6-0 SU and ATS in this role. Look for the Blazers to improve to 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series. We recommend a 3-unit play on Portland.
Evan Altemus
3 Units Chicago +4
Cleveland relied on Lebron James solely to win Game 2, despite a very tough challenge by Chicago. The Bulls were in position to win that game before losing late and letting Cleveland pull away. I look for a very motivated effort from Chicago tonight, as they will focus their defense on stopping Lebron. I also expect the Cavaliers to relax a little after winning both Games 1 and 2 by margin. Chicago is a strong home team, and they have the talent to beat Cleveland. With this point spread, the Bulls can still lose and cover. Cleveland’s road record is about the same as Chicago’s home record this season, yet the Bulls are a 4 point underdog in this game with more motivation. Look for them to come out and win this game outright.
Mike Lineback
Phoenix Suns PK
The Duke's Sports
Cleveland Under (193) for 3 Units
Cleveland is looking to shore up their defense after, what they believe was, a sloppy performance allowing too many transition points and points in the paint. Defensive minded Cavaliers' HC Mike Brown had two days to evaluate film and make adjustments consequently, we'll look for a better defensive effort from the Cav's. On the other hand, the Bulls, which have a tendency to have lower scoring games at home, had time to work on switches and packing the paint to block off easy drives to the rim. The Bulls are 1-4 O/U after allowing an opponent to score 100+, 1-4 O/U after they score 100+, and 1-4 O/U on 2 days rest. Moreover, they're 2-7 O/U in their last 9 home games and 2-5 O/U following a SU loss. We projected a line of 191; however, this line wasn't adjusted down on account of the Bulls recent home history and the fact that the last two games of relevance (April 8th was meaningless) between these teams in Chicago amounted to 171 and 177, respectively. Value with the "under".
Hollywood Sports
Blackhawks vs Predators
Condition: Over
Nashville has shocked the Blackhawks by winning 4-1 on Tuesday to take a 2-1 lead in this series. Nashville has outscored Chicago 8-4 so far in three games. Chicago was the 3rd in the NHL in goals scored this season but Jonathan Toews, Marion Hossa and Patrick Sharp are scoreless so far in this series. While this is not a must-win game for the Blackhawks, its as close as it gets in. Chicago will score goals tonight. Coach Joel Quenneville will be changing lines to shake up his team. And while rookie goaltender Pekka Rinne has been super between the pipes, he is still a rookie. Expect the Blackhawks to put a tremendous amount of pressure on him tonight. Chicago has scored only three goals in the last two games -- but this puts the Over into an empirical angle that has been 66% effective over the last five seasons. When the Total is listed at 5 or lower in games where the road team has scored two goals or less in two straight games, this next game has gone Over the Puck Total in 121 of 183 situations. The Over is 6-2-1 in Chicago's last nine road games when they were favored. The Over is also 4-0-3 in Nashville's last seven home games when they were the underdog. And the Over is 8-2-2 in the Predators last 12 games when they played a team with a winning percentage over 60%. Together, these team trends produce our game specific 18-4-6 specific winning angle. Nashville has never won three games in a playoff series in the history of their franchise. The pressure of the moment will likely hurt them defensively. While the Predators may get a few goals (and may even win the game), the Blackhawks will not go down without a fight -- and that means goals. 20-Star NHL Puck Total Power Play with Over the Puck Total in the game between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Nashville Predators.
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels
Condition: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers (8-7) won 4-3 last night to earn their first victory in this four game series. We look for a big outing from Justin Verlander tonight as he looks to be close to righting his ship after allowing three runs in 7 innings of work in his last start in Seattle. For the season, Verlander is 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA -- but he has been unlucky as well with a BABIP* (see definition below) that is a high .348. As Verlander's BABIP naturally lowers, so to will his ERA. Last year, Verlander was dominant with 260 strikeouts en route to a 19-9 record with a 3.45 ERA. Verlander's SIERA** (see definition below) suggests that he really should have had an ERA closer to a super 2.72 figure. The Angels are hitting only .251 so far this season. We look for Verlander to enjoy his best outing so far this season tonight.
Joe Saunders pitched an 8-inning, 5-hit gem where he allowed only two unearned runs in his last outing against at Toronto. For the season, Saunders is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA. But Saunders has a very low .220 BABIP in his three starts this year so he is likely to not see his good luck continue. Last season, Saunders was a nice 16-7 but his peripherals were weak as he had a 4.60 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. And against Detroit throughout his career, this lefty has a 5.18 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .293. Detroit is hitting a respectable .274 for the season -- but they have also won seven of their last ten games against left-handed starters. The Angels have lost six of their last eight games as an underdog with Saunders on the hill. Detroit has also won five of their last six games when Verlander is coming off a quality start in his last appearance. Together, these team trends produce our game specific 18-6 combined winning angle. Verlander versus Saunders provides us a much better pitching advantage then the -110 to -120 money line requires us to pay. 10-Star MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money line on the Detroit Tigers over the Los Angeles Angels listing both pitchers Justin Verlander and Joe Saunders.
* BABIP: Batting Average for Balls put In Play: A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is around .290 to .300. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to see this number lower.
** SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average -- an adjusted ERA figure that takes into account ball park and defensive factors to predict what a pitcher's ERA would be under standardized conditions. In addition, this metric also takes into account the pitcher's fly-ball and ground-ball rates and how that relates to his club's defense as well as the pitchers controllable skills (strikeouts and walks). The result is a metric that both tries to more accurately standardize ERAs from pitcher-to-pitcher but also better predict future pitching performances.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Condition: Oklahoma City Thunder
While the Lakers have won the first two games of this series, the Thunder has looked more athletic and energetic. Now returning home to their Ford Center where they enjoyed a 27-14 record with a +5.7 net point differential, we look for this upstart team to earn a win in this franchise's first home playoff game. The crowd should really help give the Thunder even more energy as these next two games are already sold out. We also expect Kevin Durant to get to the foul line more often in this game. He traveled to the charity stripe only six times in Oklahoma City's 95-92 loss on Tuesday. On his home court, Durant will likely be the beneficiary of more foul calls. The Lakers have struggled offensively in this series and the Thunder have done a pretty good job of keeping Kobe Bryant in check. Defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha has been tough on Kobe who was held to only 21 points in Game One. And while Bryant scored 39 points in Game Two, he did this on 39 possessions (for a mediocre +1.0 points-per-possession rate) while just hitting 12 of 28 shots. We look for guard Russell Westbrook to have a good game tonight as well as he holds a definitive advantage over Derek Fisher driving inside the paint.
Besides the obvious experience advantage the Lakers have in this series, these are two similar teams. The Lakers are only +0.2 points-per-possession better on offense then the Thunder while they are just +0.6 points-per-possession better on the defensive end. While the Lakers clearly control the series, we suspect that this a game they will not put up too much of a fight in. The Lakers have failed to cover their last six games coming off a win. They have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games as an underdog of under five points while the Thunder have covered twelve of their last fifteen games when favored by under five points. The Lakers have failed to cover four straight road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of over 60% while the Thunder have covered five of their last seven home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our game specific 34-6 ATS combined winning angle. The Thunder's energy behind an electric home crowd should make the difference in this game. In their last meeting in the Ford Center, the Thunder trounced the Lakers by a 91-75 score. That result is telling for this game. 20-Star NBA Bounce-Back Beatdown on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.
Scott Delaney
30 Dime Suns
EXECUTIVE
250% Portland Trailblazers
SEABASS
50 LAD
50 Tex/Bos Over
100 Atl Braves
200 Port/Phx Under
200 LAL/Okc Over
100 Chi Bulls
100 NJ Devils
200 Chi Blackhawks