Keith Fredrick
Suns at Blazers
Pick: Suns +1.5
If one takes a look at this series - when things are emotionally charged - like in Game 1 when the Blazers had listened for days how they would be without Roy and everyone stepped it up a notch then in Game 4 Roy surprises everyone with a Willis Reed type of appearance - Portland has been able to extinguish the Suns. However, when things are basically normal - the talent edge that Phoenix brings has given them the decided edge and a 3-2 lead in the series. Game 6 is "yet another" playoff game and see the Suns ending the series this evening.
JB SPORTS
2* Portland
Matt Fargo
10* Suns +1
9* Mavs +3.5
BIG AL
3* Rangers -130
3* Braves/Cardinals Under 7
4* Spurs -3.5
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: DALLAS MAVERICKS
IMPORTANT NOTE: If the best number you can get is 3 1/2, I want you to buy the half-point and take Dallas at plus-4. These NBA Playoff lines have been very sharp, and these teams know each other very well, and the last thing we want to do is get beaten by the hook. So it's a prudent move to buy the insurance and protect ourselves in case this game lands on a 4-point margin.
Mavericks
Just not willing to give up on the Dallas Mavericks, and judging by this very cheap pointspread, neither are the oddsmakers. If the roles were reversed and the Mavs were at home and needed a win to close out the series, they’d be laying at least – AT LEAST – six points. So this is Vegas telling us that they believe the Mavs are the better team.
Obviously, Dallas wasn’t as good as it looked – and San Antonio wasn’t as bad as it looked – in that 103-81 rout in Game 5. And when you look at the boxscore and see that Ginobili (18 minutes), Duncan (24 minutes) and Parker (25½ minutes) all had their evening cut short, San Antonio clearly threw in the towel in the second half. But for the first time since Game 1, the Mavs finally played a solid all-around game with contributions from a plethora of players (five scored in double figures, with Caron Butler going off for 35 points).
The Mavs entered this series as a healthy favorite for a reason, and it wasn’t just because they had home-field advantage. They had enjoyed a lot of recent success against the Spurs (including an opening-round playoff series win in five games last spring). And they come into this Game 6 having gone 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 games against the Spurs overall and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 trips to San Antonio.
Also, remember back in Game 4 in San Antonio, the Mavs were in complete control at halftime, up by 11 points. But everything went wrong for Dallas (and right for the Spurs) in a pivotal third quarter that saw San Antonio outscore the Mavs 29-11. Despite that debacle, the Mavs still managed to make a game of it in the fourth quarter and they got the backdoor push, losing by three as a three-point underdog.
These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another, meeting 18 times since the start of last season. And seven of the nine contests this season have been decided by single digits. I smell another tight one here, which makes the points we’re getting all the more valuable. Throw in the fact that Dallas comes into tonight on ATS runs of 7-2-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 5-1 after a SU or ATS loss and 5-2-1 in playoff games against the Spurs, and I’ll confidently back the Mavs, who probably won’t even need the points as this series has had seven-game thriller written all over it from the start.
SPORTS UNLIMITED
5* Suns +1
JR O'Donnell
3* Dallas +3.5
Dallas 57-30 overall owns a strong 26-16 road record and they will not be afraid to roll into San Antonio who are 53-34 and we feel the public side here tonight, Jr's has a unique system of Power ratio: ratings and we have the Mavs at -3, a monster 7 point difference. The Mavs are in a nice cover spot here as the Vegas lines makers have San An @ -3.5, way way too cheap boys. The Mavs smell blood and want to bring the series back home. Dallas a smooth 8-3 the last 11 vs San Antonio and the huge edge here on turnovers by the Dallas Mavs will be factored in big time as they protect the Rock!
The Booooj
35 Units Suns +1
King Creole
2* Dallas / San Antonio Under 191
This series has already gone 0-4-1 O/U in the first 5 games, with an average combined point total of 186.6. But check out the progression of how the games have went. The deeper we get into the series, the lower the scores have been. GM 1: 194 pts... GM 2: 190 pts... GM 3: 184 pts... GM 4: 181 pts... GM 5: 184 pts.
SAN ANTONIO: 3-12 O/U in ALL Playoff GAME SIXES... including a PERFECT 0-6 O/U when playing off a SU and ATS loss. Also 1-7 O/U in ALL Playoff games on a THURSDAY.
DALLAS: 0-6 O/U in ALL Playoff GAME SIXES when the OU line is 220 < pts. Also 0-4 O/U in ALL Playoff games on a THURSDAY.
Let's run a query for LATE Playoff games (#5 / #6 / #7) when coming in off a multiple-game 'UNDER' streak...
10-23 O/U: All NBA Playoff GAME SIX home teams playing off BB 'Unders' in a row. these games have gone 0-5 O/U when the host is favored by < 6 pts and the OU line is 199 < pts (Spurs).
1-11 O/U since 03: All NBA Playoff Game FIVE, SIX, or SEVEN when both teams went 'Under the Total' in EACH of the last 4 games.... with an OU Line of 205 < pts.
Dallas finally got the monkey off their back in Game Five. Their 103 to 81 win broke a 3-game losing streak in this first round.
1-8 O/U since 03: All NBA Playoff Game FIVE, SIX, or SEVEN teams playing off a SU win... and 3 SU losses before that (Mavs)... when the OU line is 205 < pts. In GAME SIX specifically, we note that the results are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.
How about the DIVISION aspect of tonight's Game 6?
2-10 O/U since 03: All NBA Playoff GAME SIX home teams (Mavs) versus a fellow DIVISION opponent (SPURS)... when the OU line is < 205 points.
1-5 O/U last 3 years: All All NBA Playoff Game FIVE, SIX, or SEVEN home teams involving opponents from the NBA's SOUTHWEST division (Mavs / Spurs).
Let's not forget what has happened this season on THURSDAYS in the NBA...
5-17 O/U this season: All NBA home favs of -5 < points playing on a THURSDAY... and 2-11 O/U when the OU line is < 200 points.
1-6 O/U since 06: All NBA Playoff GAME SIXES on a THURSDAY... when the OU line is 195 < points
The Duke's Sports
Portland (-1) for 3.5 Units
We don't believe Portland is going away after tonight; the 'Blazers have a lot of fight left in them and handle adversity well; after all, they've gotten this far on resilience and resourcefulness after losing a ton of players to injuries throughout the season. Tonight, Camby (finger) should play and Roy should add another inspirational performance. And McMillan, who can out-coach Gentry in his sleep, should make the needed adjustments here. The Suns have had trouble in Portland (1-4 ATS) and face a Blazers team that's 5-1 ATS off a SU loss and 14-3 ATS after allowing 100+. Portland the call.
KELSO
10 UNIT* NBA* Dallas Mavericks, +4.5
10 UNIT* NBA* Dallas Mavericks, Under 191
5 UNIT* NBA* 2 TEAM PARLAY* Dallas Mavericks, & Game Under 191
Joyce Sterling
10* Portland -1
Boston Blackie
5* Phoenix/Portland Under 201.5
ATS Lock Club
4 Units SD Padres
Power Play of the Day
Phoenix Suns +1