Don Wallace Sports
3 Units Lakers +2.5
Tom Freese
15* TOW: Lakers / Celtics Under
10* Washington
Teddy Covers
Dallas +3
Alabama +6.5
Oregon +9
Wayne Root
Billionaire - Washington St
Millionaire - Saint John's
Pinnacle - Minnesota
Helmut
Murray St. Over
USC Under
Tom Freese
Lakers at Celtics
Play: Under
Reason: Boston is 21-8-1 UNDER their last 30 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. The Celtics are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games vs. a team with winning record. The Celtics are 11-5 UNDER their last 16 games as favorites 0.5 to 4.5 points. Boston is 33-16-1 UNDER their last 50 Thursday games. The Celtics are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 home games vs. the Lakers. Los Angeles is 26-10-1 UNDER their 37 Thursday games. The Lakers are 35-16 UNDER their last 51 games when playing with two days of rest. The Lakers are 28-13 UNDER their 41 games overall. The Lakers are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 games as underdogs. Kobe and company are 19-7-1 UNDER their last 27 games vs. Eastern Conference teams. 15* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK PLAY ON UNDER
California at Washington
Play: Washington
California is 13-10 this year. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games following 3 or more straight home games. California is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that 84 or points a game. The Golden Bears are 0-6 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Washington is 15-7 this year and they are 11-0 at home this year. The Huskies are 8-2 ATS their last 10 home games and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS their last 10 home games following 3 or more straight road games. 10* PLAY ON WASHINGTON
Chip Chirimbes
UCONN at St Johns
Pick: St Johns +2
No. 9 Connecticut (18-4, #10-6, Big East 6-4) is a fine 7-2 against the points on the road this season while St. Johns (13-9, #8-13, 5-5 Big East) is only 4-6 against the number at home. The Red Storm league leading defense will have to stop the Big East's top scorer in the Huskies Kemba Walker and convert some free throws to pull off the win at Madison Square Garden. The host team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games. Take St Johns!
Stan Lisowski
3* UL Monroe +4
The War Hawks have revenge from just about 2 weeks ago in a series that has seen the home team win 7 of 8 meetings outright. Arkansas State averages just 61 points away from home while playing to a -8 average margin. They are 2-13 straight up in road/road neutral games, while the home team is 20-2 in all Red Wolves true, home/away games this season.
Sam Clayton
2* Michigan State -6.5
Was really hoping for more points on the Illini to back them on the road at "The Barn," but Vegas is on top of that line. Just not worth the risk. Illini have only one conference road win, but if there's one team that cannot keep up with the three-point barrage Illinois can bring, it's Minnesota. Still have to PASS on that one.
Which brings me to the other half of the Big Ten double dip tonight, Penn State and Michigan State. It's been very nice on our wallets the past month or so fading the Spartans, who haven't covered a game since New Years Eve (0-9-1). They've dismissed backup point guard Korie Lucious, Durrell Summers has been tussling with Tom Izzo and outside of Draymond Green --- my favorite player in the conference --- there has been no leadership. Zilch. Especially from the seniors. And even after one of the worst stretches in Michigan State history, I still cannot count this bunch out because of how good they can be.
It's no question Sparty has an uphill battle to make the NCAA tournament and I'm not saying they will. However, I really like the situation and motivational angle for MSU tonight as everything seems to line up nicely. First off, Penn State was the team that upset the Spartans 34 days ago in Happy Valley --- a loss that opened up the floodgates for the green and white meltdown. MSU is a mediocre 3-5 since that loss and that mark could easily be 0-8 with two of the wins coming in overtime and the other in the final seconds by a point. Oh, right, I'm supposed to be selling you on the Spartans . . .
Aside from the obvious motivational reasons for State to get up for this game, I think the two most important factors are PERCEPTION and PRICE. The average joe is well aware of State's 5-15 ATS record and the notion that they've been playing like complete dogshit. It's going to take a lot of nuts to lay two possessions, especially at 6.5, but these are the "unpopular" stands I like to take over the course of the season. Call me crazy, but I believe the way Sparty has struggled has actually created VALUE on the number. If this game were being played last month, MSU is laying 9.5 at the Breslin Center. I know, if my uncle had melons, she'd also be my aunt. Yet, this number is in that "danger zone" I always talk about, where the home favorite is laying 6-7-8 points and has all the tools under the sun to win by double digits. Ask yourself one thing, are you really going to be shocked if Sparty comes out and wins handily against a mediocre road team like Penn State?
Penn State limps into this contest with their second leading scorer and top rebounder Jeff Brooks (OUT) on the shelf with a dislocated shoulder. Brooks ran wild for 17 in their last meeting and the Nittany Lions have really missed him on the floor, dropping their last two contests at Illinois by 17 and at home to Michigan by 3. Diving deeper than statistics, Brooks makes Talor Battle 3x better because of his ability to stretch the defense with his sweet stroke. PSU is already dead last in the Big Ten in assists per game; now subtract a guy who shoots 57% from the floor and 47% from three. Yuck. Izzo realistically can double team Battle between the rings and really put PSU in a tough spot. Even if #12 goes off for 20 points, it's going to be the supporting cast that needs to have a spectacular game (and then some) to stay within the number.
At the end of the day, I still trust Tom Izzo. I believe that he'll not only have his players ready after two colossal losses, but more importantly, I know the Spartans walk into that locker room every single day and see the SIX Final Four banners hanging on the back wall. This talented bunch does not want to go down in history as the team to break MSU's 13-year streak in the tourney. It is sink or swim time for the defending Big Ten champs and given all we know about the chance to smack adversity square in the jaw, I'm laying the points and looking for a 10-point MSU win at home with their backs against the wall.
The Duke's Sports
Penn State Over (128') for 2 Units
We believe there is good value with the "total" considering this series has a total range of 129 to 140 over its last four games at East Lansing. This series is a relatively higher scoring series at 6-2 O/U in its last 8 overall and 5-1 O/U in its last 6 at Michigan State. Both defenses have not measured up lately. Mich State has allowed a generous 54.3% shooting over its last 6 games and Penn State's defense leaves much to be desired on the road -- allowing 71 ppg. Mich State is 4-1 O/U off a SU loss and should regain some of its offensive acumen at home after stalling out on the road this month. Penn State is 6-1 O/U as a road dog in this spread range. "Over" the call.
Ben Burns
Minnesota -2
These teams have similar overall records. However, a closer look reveals that the Gophers have been much better at home than the Illini have been on the road.
Illinois checks in with a 4-7 record in road/neutral games. They're 0-3 in three 2011 road games, losing at Penn State, Wisconsin and Indiana. While losing at Wisconsin is "understandable," note that the Gophers are arguably much stronger than either Penn State or Indiana.
The Gophers have also had trouble on the road. However, they're an outstanding 11-2 here at Minnesota. They've outscored opponents by a 73.6 to 67.1 margin here.
True, the Gophers have dropped three straight. However, two of those were on the road and the lone home loss was against Ohio State - and there's no shame in that. Prior to that, they Gophers had been perfect in Big-Ten home games and their only other home loss came way back in November.
Note that the Gophers are a perfect 9-0 SU (6-3 ATS) the last nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range.
The Gophers won at Illinois last season and they won 59-36 (in a game that was listed at pickem) when the teams last played here at Minnesota. With tonight's line again low enough that a SU win should also result in an ATS victory, I expect the Gophers to bounce back and "get the cash."
Dr Bob
2* Celtics 2.5
3* Sacramento St +17
2* Illinois +2.5
College Opinion
Wisconsin Green Bay (-2) over ILLINOIS CHICAGO
Wisconsin Green Bay is 7-2 ATS after a loss this season (4-0 ATS in conference play) and the Phoenix should be able to beat an Illinois Chicago squad that is just 2-16 straight up in their last 18 games. I’ll lean with Green Bay at -2 or better.
California Sports
4* W Green Bay
4* Fullerton
4* Wright St
3* Alabama
Maddux Sports
10 Units Mich St-6
10 Units Minnesota -2
10 Units Tenn Tech +13
10 Units Devils/Leafs Under 5.5
PPP
5% Wright St