Insider Sports Report
4* Louisville
4* Ole Miss
3* Orlando/Cleveland Under
Rex Rodgers
3* Calgary Flames -145
3* Boston Bruins +100
Tony Taylor
3* Nuggets/Spurs Over 204
3* Seton Hall -4.5
3* California -5
Jim Feist
NBA Inner Circle TV Game of the Week
Cleveland
Vegas Sports Beat
Total of Week
8* Notre Dame/ Seton Hall Under 161.5
Michael Cannon
40 Dime – TOWSON
Take Towson as the small home chalk over UNC-Wilmington.
I know these are two bad teams, but UNC-Wilmington is in a total state of disarray. It all started when coach Benny Moss was “reassigned” on Jan. 29. I’m not sure what that means, but by all accounts from those associated within the school’s athletic department he was fired.
The Seahawks were struggling before the dismissal of Moss, and now they are a complete mess. They have lost four straight and nine of their last 10, going 1-9 ATS. To illustrate the effect of Moss’ reassignment had, the Seahawks lost at home to Towson on Jan. 30, 58-53 as a 7½-point chalk.
To make matters worse, Seahawks’ guard Chad Tomko is doubtful tonight with an ankle injury. Tomko is the team’s leading scorer at 13.4 ppg.
Towson has them at home and knows they can win this game. The Tigers are coming off a home win over James Madison on Monday, 81-78.
The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two.
Take Towson as they grab the home win and cover.
MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY SYSTEM SIZZLER
SAN DIEGO @ PORTLAND
3 UNITS: SAN DIEGO +11
San Diego suffered a horrible loss at home in their last time out, as an 8 point favorite at home, they go down by 16. That sets this game up perfectly as teams that are off an upset loss as a favorite by 15 points or more, have come back in their next game to go 82-37 ATS. Portland may be doubting themselves off a 27 point loss at Gonzaga. Torreros slowdown team, taking less than 53 shots a game, make the double-digit spot look even better. I'll go with San Diego in this one.
BIG AL
Central Michigan at Ohio
Pick: Ohio -7.5
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio University Bobcats minus the points over Central Michigan. In its last game, Ohio blew out Western Michigan 90-74, as a 4.5-point home favorite. And off that big win, we'll play on the Bobcats, as Ohio is a terrific 36-15-1 ATS since 1998 off a double-digit victory as a fave (or PK). The Bobcats have also dominated the series vs. the Chipeawas, as Ohio is 23-8 straight-up, and 18-13 ATS since 1990 vs. CMU (including 11-6 ATS at home). This season, Ohio has struggled when installed as an underdog (1-6 ATS), but has done well as a favorite (7-5 ATS), and we'll play on the Bobcats tonight as a mid-sized home favorite.
David Malinsky
6* CALIFORNIA over WASHINGTON
On Saturday we turned a 6* behind Mike Montgomery and his Bears in a
prime revenge setting against an opponent that they could exploit,
and the result was an easy 72-58 win over U.C.L.A. at Pauley
Pavilion. This is more of the same, as we back the best team in the
Pac 10 at a bargain price range when they bring a serious chip on
their shoulder.
The Pac 10 standings do not have Cal front and center, of course,
because the Bears have suffered three point blank losses in their 7-4
league tally. But in those 11 games they have out-scored the
opposition by 74 points, and the have done it across the board ?
higher shooting percentage, higher 3-point percentage, higher FT
percentage, more rebounds, more assists, and fewer turnovers. Now a
savvy veteran group reaches back for something special off of the
most embarrassing moment in the Pac 10 season, that earlier 84-69
loss vs. these Huskies in Seattle, and it brings us our favorite
revenge setting ? not just when the better team brings the special
focus, but when the key cogs in particular are the ones leading the
way.
The Golden Bears are led on the court by those four SR?s in the
starting lineup, with Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo
Robertson all averaging at least 14 points per game, while Jamal
Boykin provides the physical presence on defense and on the boards.
How did that savvy veteran group fare in Seattle? How about an awful
11-35 from the field with 13 turnovers. When that quartet has more
TO?s than FG?s it means a special level of intensity the second time
around, as well as some swinging pendulums. But also note that the
result did not necessarily tell us anything about the matchup ? in
cashing a 4* ticket behind Washington that day our focus was all
about the energy of the matchup. It was a quick turnaround for Cal,
playing early on a Saturday afternoon after a Thursday night win at
Washington State in which the starters scored 91 of the 93 points,
and they were without Jorge Gutierrez, and with Randle nursing a sore
knee. The Huskies did what they do best ? use their athleticism to
wear down a team that could not bring their ?A? game.
Now we get Lorenzo Romar?s team at their worst. They have raw
athleticism but not a lot of polish, and as a result are an awful 0-4
SU and ATS on the Pac 10 road, falling to the spread by a significant
62 points in those games. They could not cope with Cal when all hands
were on deck in an 86-71 loss on this court LY, and in their first
road game since January 23rd they are even more subject to the kind
of issues that have haunted them in previous treks ? when they are
not getting easy points in transition the offense simply bogs down,
and that focused Randle/Christopher back-court is not going to give
the ball up often tonight. This will be the third time we have been
able to elevate Cal to a 6* rating in Pac 10 play, with the first two
cashing by 23 points, and the timing is right again.
4* UTAH STATE over BOISE STATE
Because of the complexity of Stew Morrill?s playbook every once in a
while we will see a Utah State team get out of the gate slowly, and
that was the case when the Aggies fell at New Mexico State and
Louisiana Tech to open W.A.C. play. But talk about a slap in the face
kick starting the Aggies ? since then it has been an 8-0 SU and ATS
roll, with seven of the wins coming in double figures, and the level
of basketball being played is special. In this stretch they are
shooting 50.8 percent from the field, including 48.5 percent from
3-point range, while holding the opposition to 38.6 and 31.0 in those
same categories, and they have won the battle of the boards by 8.3.
They have also hit 76.4 percent of their free throws, a great way to
extend margins. And extending a margin is exactly where we expect to
see them in the latter stages tonight against a Boise State squad
that lacks the tools and confidence to slow the onrushing train.
Utah State is more than forewarned about this setting. While the
Aggies dominated the Broncos in that earlier 81-59 home win, when
Morrill did not have any starter on the court longer than 28 minutes
(12 different players saw at least four minutes of action), they have
made public comments all week about the embarrassment they suffered
on this court LY, a 66-56 defeat that ended their school record
19-game win streak. It was a night in which they shot a season low
36.5 percent, while turning the ball over 19 times. That bitter
memory provides just the spark that is needed to dominate an opponent
that simply does not get in the way.
Boise State has allowed half of the 10 W.A.C. opponents to shoot
better than 50 percent from the field, a simply awful count. It shows
a lack of heart and desire on defense, and if that is your particular
fault February can be a long month, regardless of how few calendar
days there are. The Broncos tried to make a big deal out of their
last home game against Idaho, coming in with a full week to prepare
in a setting that could have turned the momentum of their season
around, but they were whipped by much more than even the abysmal
79-55 final score can show, trailing by a shocking 45-19 at halftime.
An anemic Idaho offense dented them for 56 percent shooting. Now they
have to step way up in class, and we will call for the Aggie roll to
continue in style here, consistently breaking this defense down for
easy shots with their outstanding floor balance (six different
players are averaging at least 9.5 per game in their 8-0 run), and
building this margin easily into double figures.
4* PORTLAND over SAN DIEGO
When a key veteran floor leader is lost from a weak team having a bad
season, the fear is that they will crash without that savvy presence
on the court, resorting into the kind of unfocused play that leads to
ugly results. So what happened to San Diego vs. Santa Clara without
De?Jon Jackson, whose Torrero career is over after he had made 81
appearances in the starting lineup? They crashed and burned with the
kind of unfocused play that created an ugly result, a hideous 59-43
home loss to a team that had entered the game at 9-16. It is not
going to get any better here.
Bill Grier could not have been more blunt about how his team played
on Saturday, but you can see that is was also not just about losing
Jackson ? it is something that apparently has been brewing all
season. So after he started his press conference alluding to ?Too
many guys worried about their own deal and not enough about the
team.? he followed up with - ?But when we actually hit some
adversity in the game, we became pretty selfish and no one was
accountable. That?s the thing I?ve been fighting with this group all
season long.? The stretch drive is going to be a long one for a
team that brought little to the table, even when Jackson was on the
court.
It is a much different story for Portland tonight. With several
quality wins under their belts the Pilots have a major focus on
making it to a post-season tournament, and at 14-8 the resume gives
them the potential if they can take care of business in settings such
as this one. It gets magnified tonight because of the presence of the
ESPNU cameras (yes, it is only ESPNU, but on this campus that is a
big deal), and also through the physical freshness that they can
bring in playing for only the second time in February, and the first
home game since January 23rd. And while they will be without Nik
Raivio again, note that they have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS as
favorites without him, beating Loyola-Marymount by 40 and Pepperdine
by 16 on this court, and San Francisco by 16 and Santa Clara by 22 on
the road. The fact that they were KO?d early at Gonzaga last week is
not a negative at all; if anything that only establishes a greater
sense of urgency for the task at hand, with a full week to prepare
helping Eric Reveno to put a game plan together. The Pilots are
playing with tremendous precision on offense, shooting 47.8 percent
from the field in conference play, including 39.7 beyond the arc, and
they have only turned the ball over 91 times in those eight games.
With the physical energy there to bring that precision fully into
play they can grind out a weak San Diego team that does not bring the
tools, confidence or the spirit to compete.
ALATEX
15* California -4.5
New Mexico State +4
MIKE LINEBACK
4* Orlando Magic +6.5
4* (*POD*) Denver Nuggets -5.5
St.Bernadine Sports
2* Calgary Flames (-150) over Dallas Stars
If the Dallas Stars are going to head into the Olympic break with some momentum, they'll need to show some improvement on the road. Visiting the struggling Calgary Flames after the acquisition of Kari Lehtonen could help. Dallas (26-21-12) is among the worst road teams in the league, going 8-15-7 while dropping 13 of its last 14 with its only victory coming at NHL-worst Edmonton on Jan. 22. Jarome Iginla has two assists against the Senators and has four goals and three assists in the past four meetings with Dallas.
FRANK PATRON
MUST WIN 40000 UNIT GAME OF THE YEAR #4
STANFORD -4
BRANDON LANG
15 DIME - ARIZONA WILDCATS
Great spot to jump on the home team here.
Off back-to-back road losses at Washington and Washington State, they are back home to face a Ducks squad they drilled 74-60 in Eugene back on January 16th as a 5 point dog.
All told, the Wildcats are on a 3-1 SU and ATS at home in Pac-10 play.
After dropping their home opener in conference to Washington State by 2 as a 2 point favorite, they drilled the best team in the conference Washington by 17 as a 5 point home dog.
Then Northern California came calling and both went home unhappy as they took care of Stanford by 8 as a 6-point favorite and an upset of Cal by 4 as a 2-point home dog.
Overall they are 7-3 ATS their last 10, and now face a struggling Oregon team that just can't get out of their own way.
After two solid home wins against Ucla 71-66 in OT laying 4 and USC by 10 catching 2 they went into rival Oregon State catching 1 1/2 and were buried 62-42.
Their last road trip prior to that was at Cal where they lost by 32 as an 11 point dog 89-57 and at Stanford 84-69 as a 4 1/2 point dog.
They are a horrific 7-12 ATS on the year highlighted by a 2-5 SU and ATS on the highway with all 5 losses by 8 points or more.
I am confident this one wil be by at least by double digits.
5 DIME - UTAH STATE AGGIES
The best team in the WAC takes on the 2nd worst, and the way the Aggies are taking care of business, I will gladly lay this number tonight.
Not only is Utah State on a run of 8 in a row both SU and ATS but 7 of the 8 wins have been by double digits.
Beat Hawaii at home by 44 laying 17 1/2 followed by another home win over this same Boise State team by 22 laying 13 1/2.
They go on the road at Fresno and Idaho and win by 26 points and 12 as 2 1/2 and 6 point favorites respectively.
Then they come back home and take care of San Jose State by 19 laying 17 1/2, Idaho by 18 laying 14 1/2 and Nevada by 11 as a 9 point favorite.
The only single digit game in this run was the 7 point win at Nevada in OT as a 2 1/2 point favorite.
Boise State is a horrendous 2-7 ATS at home this year and has only covered 3 of their last 10 games overall.
I fully expect Utah State to continue to pay out like a slot machine and pick up another double digit win.
FREE PICK - VALPARAISO CRUSADERS
Sportsbetsnow
2 Units CLE/ORL UNDER 194
2 Units Spurs +6