David Malinsky
4* UCLA over Stanford
UCLA is “getting it”. A roster that was only going to be good offensively had the potential to be great on the other end of the court, and those pieces are coming together – with size, depth and athleticism it was simply a matter of a young team learning to play well as a unit, and having the commitment on that end of the court. Now with the Pac 10 regular-season title a legitimate goal, that commitment can go to an even higher level.
The Bruins are allowing 41.0 percent shooting in Pac 10 play, with 59 blocked shots through those 12 games, and as each week goes by they get better on that end of the court – they just finished a 4-0 home stand in which Southern Cal, St. John’s, Oregon and Oregon State were limited to 56.0 ppg on 37.6 percent shooting, and they can again handle a young Stanford team that they held to 30.8 percent shooting, with only eight assists on 68 FG attempts, in that earlier 68-57 home win. And note that it was a win that came without Joshua Smith, who provides an additional edge against the Cardinal with his size up front. The absence of Smith the first go-round meant 23 minutes for little-used Anthony Stover, who has only played 72 minutes in the other 11 league games, yet the Bruins still won going away, a commanding 57-33 run-out after being down 24-11 early.
It is the physical tenacity of the UCLA defense that controls this flow again. With no SR’s on the roster, and five FR in the main rotation, the Cardinal are anything but a certainty to play well in a high-pressure setting such as this one. While the UCLA defense steps up down the stretch we can not say the same for Johnny Dawkins’ squad, which has allowed 49.8 percent shooting over the last two Pac 10 weekends, yet they survived at 2-2 in that stretch because of a great run from Jeremy Green, who scored 92 points in those four outings, knocking down a remarkable 12 straight triples in one stretch. But the Bruins have excellent on-ball defenders in the back-court, holding Green to 4-15 in that first meeting, and as he cools off the rest of the Cardinal are not ready to pick up the slack against this class of defense yet.
Jason Johnson
Minnesota at Penn State
Pick: Penn State -2
Penn State continued its impressive home court play in a 24 point win over Northwestern over the weekend. The victory improved the Lions mark to 12-4 in Happy Valley. Considering that Minnesota doesn't exactly play well on the road posting a 3-5 record this season, I think we'll see PSU continue their winning ways tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* Coll. of Charleston -9.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Charleston:
The Cougars are 12-9-1 ATS this year, including 6-5 ATS on the road; on February 12th they beat NC Greensboro 87-69, "pushing" as 18-point favorites; that was this teams fourth consecutive victory, having easily covered in the three previous games.
Note that Charleston is 7-1 SU its last eight on the road vs. The Citadel.
On the other side of the court: The Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS this year, including just 3-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd; on February 14th they lost 65-61 in OT to Savannah State; that was this teams fifth straight SU/ATS loss.
Note that The Citadel is just 1-4 SU its last five in front of the home town crowd; just 3-15 SU its last 18 vs. the Cougars.
Bottom line: After winning 36 games the previous 2 seasons, The Citadel takes a 5-game losing streak and a record of 9-18 into tonight's game with the 19-7 Cougars, who sit atop the Southern Conference with a 12-2 league mark.
The Citadel has had to deal with a ton of different issues including the loss of such players as John Brown (now the top rebounder in the Big South Conference at Liberty) and Harrison DuPont (now at UC-Davis).
The Cougars simply outmatch the Bulldogs in key positions, and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this contest; 8* play on CHARLESTON!
Lenny Del Genio
Richmond +6
This is a huge game in the Atlantic 10 with both teams trailing conference leader Xavier by a full game in the standings and both looking to solidify at-large NCAA Tourney status in case they don't win the postseason tourney. Coincidentally, these were the two teams that met in LY's A-10 Final with Temple beating Richmond 56-52, a score that indicates the game was clearly played at the pace the Owls prefer. However, according to at least one Spider, "We hang our hats defensively. "We were fine with them holding the ball. We felt if we could get it down to a couple of seconds on the shot clock we could force them to take a shot they didn't want to take. We thought it worked to our advantage." When these teams met in the regular season last year, it was all Richmond, 71-54 as 1.5-point faves. This year, they are getting a generous amount of points playing in Philly, and the Spiders are shooting much better from 3-point range than LY. In fact, not only are they shooting better than 41% from behind the arc, but they are also holding opponents to just 30%. Since the start of last season, they are 13-3 ATS as an underdog. L3 seasons, they are 15-5 ATS as a road dog. They are on a 13-3 ATS run on the conference road + a perfect 7-0 ATS when off a home conference win. Both teams are hot and in that case, we'll take the points. Richmond is our College Hoops Underdog of the Week.
Evan Altemus
UCLA +1
Stanford hasn't played well lately despite some recent covers. The Cardinal are just 3-6 straight up in their last 9 games but two of their wins were against conference bottom feeders Arizona State and Oregon State. Also both of those games were at home. UCLA has been playing vastly better defense lately, almost 8 percentage points better than Stanford, as they have held teams to 37% shooting in their last 5 games. UCLA is a grinding team and less flashy, meaning that they are good at covering small point spreads but struggle to beat teams by margin. UCLA already beat Stanford this season, but I don't expect Stanford to get a revenge win because the Bruins are playing too well right now.
The Duke's Sports
Chicago (-1') for 1.5 Units
We like the Bulls disciplined approach to their game this -- a tribute to their new HC Thibodeau, who has made them a strong defensive team and a leading contender in the EC. In the first matchup November 17, 2010, Chicago held the Spurs to a measly 37 first half points but got ambushed in the 3rd quarter with a 37-12 run to let the game slip away. We believe the Bulls have matured immensely from then and are now better able to withstand offensive runs by the opposition; at the same time, their offense is methodically designed with Rose a virtuoso at the point. And Boozer was a great acquisition. He has a great understanding of hustle play on both ends of the floor -- similar to the injured Noah. We'll take Chicago.
Teddy Covers
UCLA +1.5
Dr Bob
3* Alabama -8.5
2* Penn State -2.5
2* Troy +2
Jim Feist
Bulls
Mavericks
UCLA
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Penn St
No Limit - Stanford
Sports Bank
400 Suns Under