Rex Rodgers
3* Columbus Blue Jackets -130
3* Nashville Predators -135
Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella
Game: Tennessee at Louisiana State Feb 4 2010 9:00PM
Prediction: Tennessee
Reason: LSU (9-12) hosts SEC rival Tennessee (18-4) on Thursday night, but home court advantage won't be enough to get the job done as they've struggled to a 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in Conference play, losing 6 of those 8 games by 9 points or more! At 16-4 SU, Tennessee will be one of the toughest Conference opponents they'll met this season and we find LSU at 0-7 ATS at home following back-to-back losses of 10 points or more to SEC foes. Lay the lumber with road Favored Tennessee.
10* Play On Tennessee SEC GOY.
Tony Taylor
TNT Total of Month
4* Spurs/Blazers 194 Over
BRANDON LANG
20 DIME - VALPARAISO
This team is playing some basketball.
Off their hard fought loss on the road at Wisconsin/Milwaukee 85-82 as a 7 1/2 point dog, they roll into Wisconsin Green Bay and win outright 84-79 as a 5 1/2 point dog.
In fact, since losing at Wright State 59-57 as a 16-point underdog, this team has gone on a 6-1 run both SU and ATS.
The only non-cover was a 4 point home win over Youngstown State as a 4 1/2 point favorite.
This game will be a battle and with Valpo playing with more confidence now than at anytime this entire year and catching points at home, it wouldn't suprise me if they won the game outright.($$ Yes, you heard me: I wouldn't be surprised if they won it outright; that's how much I like them tonight and it's why they're a 20 dime play.
Wright State has been no bargain on the road over its last 5 games going 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS.
At Detroit they were laying 2 and won right on the number 61-59. At Wisc/Milwaukee they lost outright 67-61 in OT laying 3 1/2.
At Wisc/Green Bay they lost outright 68-66 as a 5 point chalk and they split in Chicago beating Ill/Chicago by 17 as a 8 point favorite while losing at Loyola/Chicago 53-52 as an 8 1/2 point choice.
As you can see, Wright State is all about close games on the road as evidenced by their 1-6-1 ATS run on the highway over the last 8 games.
I feel we are in for another close one here in Valpo because not only is Valpo on a run of 5 straight covers but they are on a 9-1-1 ATS run as an underdog anywhere.
I look for Valpo to take this team down to the wire and possibly steal one outright.
Bryan Leonard
Mid-American Massacre
Kent State
MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY THUMPER
SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO
3 UNITS: SAN DIEGO -7.5
The San Francisco Dons played their best game of the season last time out resulting in a stunning win vs Gonzaga. That was on their homecourt and this team will likely be flat as a pancake taking to the road here. Off their homecourt they have been a disaster. They are 1-8 off their own court losing by an average of 18.6ppg in the 8 losses. The Torreros own wins vs Stanford,Houston, and Oklahoma and have more to bring to the table in this one. Dons just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 on the road. I'm going with San Diego in this one.
TIM TRUSHEL
Indiana
USC
Trent Citron
6 units Tennessee
5 units Cleveland State
4 units Gonzaga
Alatex
15* Wash State +2.5
Fla +2.5
Valpo +6.5
Matt Fargo
Wright State at Valparaiso
Pick: Valparaiso +6
Valparaiso has pretty much come out of nowhere and is making some noise in the Horizon. While no team is going to take out Butler, who has a four-game lead, teams are going to be vying for positioning to try and avoid playing the Bulldogs in the conference tournament until the latest possible time. The schedule has been close to impossible for the Crusaders who has played 16 of 23 games away from home so far this season. The way things started out on the road, it was expected to be a long season. Valparaiso went 1-10 in its first 11 true road games but things have suddenly turned around. The Crusaders are 5-1 in their last six games including 3-1 in their last four on the road, all of which have come in their last four games overall. The one loss came at Milwaukee by only three points and two of the three road losses in the Horizon have been by three points or less. The better news is that Valparaiso returns home for the first time since January 16th and it brings in a solid 6-1 record at the Athletics-Recreation Center. Even better is the fact we are getting points as the Crusaders are 10-4 ATS this season as underdogs. Wright St. came into the season as the top team to take out Butler in the Horizon. It hasn’t quite worked out that way as the Raiders are a decent 7-4 in the conference but have been stung by close losses. Three of the four losses have come by a combined nine points while the fourth came against the Bulldogs at home. They are 2-3 overall on the road within the conference and it will be tough for Wright St. here as it has its rematch at Butler this Saturday. The Raiders won the first meeting against Valparaiso this season at home by just a bucket as 16-point favorites and the line has come down in this second meeting considerably and for pretty solid reasons. Wright St. does have edges in key categories such as free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio but they are slim. Even though the Raiders do have an edge from the charity stripe by over four percent, the Crusaders made it to the line more often and are averaging more points. As for the ratio, it is just a 1.13 to 1.09 edge and in home/road games, the advantage goes to the other side. Valparaiso has a 1.11 ratio at home compared to a 0.98 ratio for the Raiders on the road and the Crusaders are +0.44 in ratio variance while Wright St. is +0.29. Another edge for Valparaiso is in three-point shooting and that is where the Raiders struggle as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams shooting 37 percent or better from behind the arc. Meanwhile, the Crusaders are 7-1 ATS revenging a loss this season. Wright St. is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of fewer than seven points while Valparaiso is 5-0 ATS and an underdog of fewer than seven points. 8* Valparaiso Crusaders
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: SAN DIEGO
10 Dime: TRAIL BLAZERS
Can you say “letdown”? Well, the San Francisco Dons will be saying it after this game at San Diego today. See, the Dons are coming off Saturday’s shocking 81-77 overtime upset of 13th-ranked Gonzaga – and when I say shocking, I’m not just talking about the fact San Francisco won outright as a 12-point underdog. I’m talking about the fact the Dons entered that game after three straight losses, including two home defeats to Santa Clara (66-65 as a six-point favorite) and Portland (74-58 as a five-point underdog).
How in the hell did San Francisco spring the upset Saturday? Only think I can think of is the Zags just didn’t take the game seriously and they paid the price. Tonight, though, it’s back to reality for the Dons. They have to go on the road (where they’re 1-10 this year, with the only win coming by three points at Loyola Marymount, which is one of the worst teams in all of Division I), and they have to face an angry San Diego squad that is no doubt looking to deliver a little payback.
It was a month ago that the Toreros, fresh off a nine-point win at Santa Clara to start the West Coast Conference season, went up the road to San Francisco and got pummeled 87-71 despite being a 2½-point road chalk. That set off a five-game SU an ATS losing skid that San Diego finally pulled out of just this past Saturday, when it went to Pepperdine and cruised 66-44 as a two-point road favorite.
Prior to last month’s meeting, the Toreros had won five in a row against San Francisco (3-1-1 ATS). That includes last year’s 73-63 win in San Diego. And while the Toreros are 0-2 SU and ATS in conference home games, they played two of the league’s best teams (Portland and Gonzaga).
The bottom line here, guys, is this: San Francisco got lucky on Saturday, because the Dons really aren’t in Gonzaga’s league. Instead, their talent is more representative of a team that’s 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games, 11-23-1 ATS in their last 35 games overall, 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points.
Lay the chalk with San Diego, which will play one of its best games of the season tonight and get its revenge by handing San Francisco its eighth double-digit loss away from home this year!
Portland
Both the Blazers and Spurs have been without their point guards for some time (Tony Parker for San Antonio; Brandon Roy for Portland), and both guys are doubtful tonight. But what this comes down to is each squad played road games last night (San Antonio held off Sacramento 115-113; Portland lost at Utah 118-105), and I trust the young Blazers MUCH more in a back-to-back spot than I do the aging Spurs.
Portland is 8-3 ATS this season when playing the second night of a back-to-back, and that run stretches to 12-3 ATS when you go back to last year. San Antonio is 3-5 ATS this year when playing two straight days. In January, the Spurs had three back-to-backs, and travel was involved in all three. In the first, they followed up an 11-point win at Washington with a 91-86 loss at Toronto (as a three-point road favorite). In the second, they followed up a 20-point home win over the Lakers with a one-point overtime victory at Oklahoma City (as a 1½-point underdog). And in the third, they followed up a 16-point loss at Charlotte with a six-point setback at Memphis (as a 1½-point underdog).
The fact the Spurs are actually favored in this game is a bit perplexing, too. Despite last night’s win in Sacramento (and they failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite), they’re just 9-9 on the road, while Portland is 17-9 at home. Also, the Blazers have won four straight meetings with San Antonio, including both clashes this season (96-84 at home; 98-94 on the road). In fact, in the road victory back on Dec. 23, Parker was on the floor for San Antonio, but the Roy didn’t play for Portland, yet the Blazers won outright as a 12-point underdog!
Finally, while the Spurs are in ATS slumps of 2-5 overall, 2-6 as a favorite, 2-9 against the Northwest Division, 1-6 on Thursday, Portland has covered in six of its last seven after a loss and 30 of its last 42 as a home underdog. And the home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, with San Antonio failing to cover in its last five visits to Portland. Wrong team is favored here, guys. Take the Blazers.
ROCKETMAN
5* Portland Trailblazers
MIKE LINEBACK
4* San Antonio Spurs -2
NHL Pro Picks
Montreal +144
NY Islanders +132
Ottawa +106
Edmonton +188
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket Detroit U
Valparaiso
Maryland