MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY THRILLER
CAL ST. FULLERTON @ PACIFIC
3 UNITS: CAL ST. FULLERTON +7.5
Tigers have been cruising at home entering tonight's action with a stellar 7-1 mark. It must be noted however against teams where they were from +6 to -6 at home, the competitive games, they show 4 games with the largest margin of victory being 8, and a negative scoring margin. UC Fullerton has been disappointing this season, until recently, as they have won 3 of their last 4, and are starting to get hot from long range. They have 6 bobafide scorers, and have the ability to win here or at the very least hang close. I'll go with Cal Fullerton in this one.
Brandon Lang
10 DIME - LAKERS-CAVALIERS UNDER THE TOTAL - The play in this game tonight is the total.
You had better believe defense will be center stage as the Lakers and Cavs do battle.
The last 5 times these two have met they have gone Under the posted total, and I saw nothing that leads me to believe this one won't be much of the same.
What alarms me about Los Angeles is Kobe and his finger.
Last game out against the Orlando Magic he shot 4 of 19 from the floor and just struggled all night.
The Lakers scored just 4 points in the last 5:53 of the 2nd quarter and 12 points the entire 3rd quarter.I'm talking about 16 points in close to 18 minutes of play at home no less against a Magic team not known for their defense.
Believe me the Cavs are known for their defense and at home against a team they feel right now they just might meet in the NBA finals, it's a step up game for them.
They were very sluggish defensively in the first half against the Raptors Tuesday night allowing 60 points but a lot of that was tired legs first game back after their west coast road trip.
They found their legs in the 2nd half holding Toronto to just 40 points.
I expect both these teams to clamp down just like they have with one another the last few meetings.
As mentioned, the last 5 meetings have all gone under and but also the last 5 meetings in Cleveland have gone under as well.
When playing one another both of these teams have trouble reaching 100 points. It's either one or the other and that my friends is why the last 5 have gone under.
Looking for a 6th straight under tonight between the Lakers and Cavs tonight.
FREE SELECTION - ST. MARY'S GAELS
RAS
1.5 Units Long Beach State -1
1 Unit Cal Poly SLO -2
1 Unit Fresno St +4
DAVID MALINSKY
5* L.A. LAKERS over CLEVELAND
Many times we use the phrase ?Tough Out? when talking about the
characteristics that a particular road underdog brings to the table
that put them in the hunt to win in a hostile environment, and to at
least stay within the pointspread. Tonight we may have the epitome of
that category. Rarely do we ever get to take a team as good as the
Lakers plus this many points in a regular season game, and rarely
does a team of this class bring the level of chip on their shoulder
that they have tonight.
The humbling 102-87 loss that Los Angeles suffered at home on
Christmas day vs. Cleveland may have been an even more bitter pill to
swallow than the scoreboard could show. It was the kind of meltdown
across the board that can bring a special focus from each individual
member of the rotation. Kobe Bryant? 11-33 from the field with four
TO?s. Ron Artest was brought in largely to defend guys like LeBron
James and Paul Pierce come playoff time, but he fouled out in only
30:31 of court time. Lamar Odom was tossed after drawing a pair of
technical fouls, two of the five that the Lakers had that afternoon.
But the true elite respond well to such defeats, especially with
ample time off to prepare a game plan for this setting, and in terms
of talent, experience and moxie Los Angeles brings the ideal package.
There is nothing special about the Cleveland form right now to be
favored in this range. Over the last eight games the Cavaliers have
been in the right place at the right time against depleted opponents,
missing the likes of Gilbert Arenas, Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Roy,
Chris Kaman and several Warriors when they escaped by three at Golden
State. But they lost three times outright in that stretch, and went
just 2-5-1 ATS, continuing to show an awkward floor game that still
does not flow well when Shaq is on the court. And when ?A vs. A?
match up during the regular season there simply is not much of a home
court advantage ? if anything the true ?A? teams relish playing in a
hostile environment during the long and sometimes monotonous slog of
a schedule. As such it should come as no surprise that the road team
is 7-2 ATS in this series the last five seasons, including a 101-91
Laker win on this court LY, and tonight we call for more of the same.
4* DENVER/L.A. CLIPPERS Under
Yesterday we wrote about the Clippers being priced improperly from a
Totals standpoint, with both their true pace and true defense not
fully recognized because of the number of injuries they have had to
play through. But what had been a solid ride throughout the evening
on our 4* Under ticket turned into one of those awkward end-games
that are an NBA hazard, as a 160 with 6:40 remaining saw 41 points
scored the rest of the way, including 13 in the final 1:37. That
stings, but as always the silver lining to the dark cloud is that it
leaves the value in place to play again. And there is more than just
that value working for us here.
As we have written often in the past, playing the second game of a
back-to-back night in Denver is the toughest thing that the NBA
schedule maker can throw out there, especially coming from the
Pacific time zone. The altitude of the Mile High City takes an
absolute toll on the legs. Now we have the most rare setting in which
both the Nuggets and their opponents are off of Wednesday games, and
it is particularly difficult for George Karl?s crew, with the
Warriors taking them to O.T. in Oakland last night. Carmelo Anthony
turned in a season-high of 46:04 to salvage that win, with Kenyon
Martin (41:16), Nene (39:31) and Chauncey Billups (38:00) also
putting in major workloads.
How often does Denver play on the West Coast, and then return home
for a night game the next evening? It has not happened yet this
season, and there were only two such instances LY, both playing Under
the Total. We expect to see a pair of fatigued teams here, with
neither looking to push the pace and the perimeter shooting a
question mark, the latter magnified by the fact that both teams are
playing good defense around the basket. That leads to an easy Under
call at the high line that has been set.
4* INDIANAPOLIS/NY JETS Under
Here is what we saw in the AFC Playoffs last week ? the Jets came out
with a conservative plan to hang in the game at San Diego, hoping to
keep it close enough to make a few plays to win as the afternoon
progressed. Meanwhile the Colts played a methodical game against an
opponent that lacked offensive punch, focusing more on avoiding
mistakes that could give points away than attacking, and forcing the
opposition to have to execute their way down the field to score. It
ultimately led to a pair of easy Under?s, with neither game coming
within 11 points of the Total.
Here is what we are going to see in the AFC Playoffs this week ? the
same thing.
Rex Ryan gutted out that win at San Diego by doing what he had to do
? run the football and rely on his defense. 39 of the 63 snaps were
running plays, and there were only two first-down passes the entire
game. They produced precious little, with only 14 first downs and 262
yards, but a key interception set up a short field for a TD early in
the 4th quarter, and then Shonn Greene broke that 53-yard TD run
midway through the final stanza. Take away that burst from Greene and
the offense generated an anemic 3.4 yards per snap. And that was
after only coming up with 15 first downs at Cincinnati the prior
week, when 41 of 56 snaps were running plays. It is partially a
tribute to conservative play, but also the blunt fact that the
passing game was 31st in the NFL in yardage this season, and with
rookie QB Mark Sanchez having far more INT?s than TD passes they
simply can not rely on that part of their arsenal to make plays. If
anything the focus here is even more devoted to slowing the tempo,
running the football, and reducing the game to as few possessions as
possible. We always like to look to an Under when a quality underdog
brings that kind of game plan.
What is even better is when the favorite does not mind that same
flow, and will go out of their way to take the air out of the ball
with a lead in the second half. That is the Indianapolis way, and in
Peyton Manning the Colts may have the best clock manager with a lead
that the NFL has ever produced. While the defense was indeed solid in
last week?s win over Baltimore, helping their cause was the fact that
the clock management of the offense limited the Ravens to just 55
offensive snaps, making it even more difficult for Joe Flacco & Co.
to ever find a rhythm.
Clinching this for us is that the Colts do not necessarily get to a
lead all that easily anyway ? for as much as we respect the work of
Manning this season, the bottom line is that this offense drew a most
favorable schedule, only having two games all season against teams
that finished in the league?s Top 190 in Total Defense. The running
game never developed, and outside of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark
the receiving corps lacks playmakers. Given the way that Darrelle
Revis can shadow Wayne, and with the Jets among the NFL?s best at
defending TE?s this season, Manning?s best options are taken away.
That turns this into a battle for field position from the Colts as
well ? instead of going on the attack against those New York blitzes
look for the focus to be on ball security, forcing the Jet offense to
make plays to earn their points. It adds up to pace and efficiency
levels that make points very hard to come by, and the risk of
turnovers creating easy scores is low, since avoiding those mistakes
will be a big part of the conservative game plans.
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Penn St. -10
Special K
7* Indiana +9.5
Wunderdog
Game: Penn State + USC Parlay
4 Unit Parlay -195 (moneyline)
Game: South Alabama at North Texas
5 Units South Alabama +5
Game: Oregon State at Stanford
5 Units Oregon State +7.5
Game: Oregon State at Stanford
2 Units Oregon State +260
Game: Loyola Marymount at Portland
5 Units Loyola Marymount +13
Matt Fargo
10* San Jose St. Spartans + 6.5
The Boooj
50 Units Cleveland (-3) over LA Lakers
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: LA Lakers +4
Matt Fargo
10* San Jose St. Spartans + 6.5
Louisiana Tech enters the week on a 10-game winning streak and is in first place in the WAC with a 5-0 record. No one saw this coming. The Bulldogs were expected to be a good team this season but it has raced out to a start that is the best in 25 years of the program. With over half of the season done, Louisiana Tech is starting to finally get some recognition but it may be too late. The public loves riding these streaks and the betting market needs to adjust and in this case, Louisiana Tech is a rather overpriced road favorite. Taking a look at its last two road games which were just 10 and 12 days ago, the Bulldogs were favorites on the road by one and two points and now it has substantially jumped. The linesmakers had to make this number this high yet the public is still on board. For a team that is 17-2, there are some problems. First off, the schedule has been light as the Bulldogs have played the 222nd ranked schedule in the nation which is nothing to brag about. Despite the easy slate, Louisiana Tech has an assist/turnover ratio blow the breakeven point at 0.91 and that falls to 0.85 in road games. The Bulldogs are also having trouble from behind the arc especially on the road where they are hitting just 28.7 percent from long range. San Jose St. was thought to possibly be the team in the Bulldogs position right now. The Spartans were picked as a middle of the pack WAC team and expectations were that this was one of the most talented teams in a while here and there was the possibility of a big breakout season. It has not happened but it has not been bad. Of the eight losses, four have been by single-digits with another coming at Washington by just 10 points. San Jose St. has lost only once at home this season and that was against a very good St. Mary’s team early in the season. As mentioned, the Bulldogs do not shoot the long ball well and it is the opposite for the Spartans who are hitting 40 percent from three-point land on the season, 23rd in the nation, including a solid 45.8 percent at home. The long range shooting margin is +13.6 percent at home for the Spartans and -14.5 percent for Louisiana Tech. Also, the Spartans have a 0.97 assist/turnover ratio, which is below breakeven, but it is better than the opposition and also with playing a tougher schedule on the season. San Jose St. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games in the second half of the season against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg and it is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. Do not be surprised with an outright win here. 10* San Jose St. Spartans
Teddy Covers
Oregon State
New Mexico State
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Ottawa -165
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the home side in this situation:
The Blues (22-20-7) have won five of six after a 4-3 overtime victory at Montreal last night; I believe they are prime for a letdown and believe they'll falter in the back-to-back situation.
The Blues coughed up a 3-1 lead in the third period, when Montreal tied the score with 33 seconds remaining in regulation on a goal by Mike Cammalleri; St. Louis is lucky to have skated away with that OT victory, but have to be tired collectively for tonight's contest.
St. Louis might be 5-1 its last six, but it always struggles on the road; 2-4 its last six.
On the other side of the court: The surging Senators could have veteran forward Milan Michalek back in the lineup tonight when they try for a season-high fifth straight victory - and fifth straight over the visiting St. Louis Blues.
Michalek’s return could only provide a boost for the Senators (26-21-4), who beat Chicago 4-1 at home Tuesday for their fourth straight victory after losing a season-high five in a row.
The Senators have outscored their opponents 15-4 during the winning stretch after being outscored 22-5 during their recent skid.
First, AHL call-up Mike Brodeur won two straight, beating New York and Montreal. And then, in a little more than 24 hours and with Brodeur battling the flu, Brian Elliott chalked up victories over Boston and Chicago; with No. 1 goalie Pascal Leclaire on the shelf still from injury, the Sens goaltenders have "turned it around".
Not only are the Sens 4-1 their last five, they are also 12-5 their last 17 at Scotiabank place.
Bottom line: "That just shows we can compete with anybody in the league," said Elliott. "Not only can we compete, we can get a convincing win. We just have to trust in our system and we can compete with anybody on any given night when we're all on the same page."
Look for OTTAWA to improve to 17-11 (+4.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record and for St. Louis to fall to 3-9 (-8.8 units) in non-conference games!
9* SENATORS
Rocketman
Cal Riverside +2
Cal Riverside comes in with a 7-10 overall record this year while Cal Poly is now 6-10 on the season. Cal Riverside is allowing only 63.7 points per game overall this year. Cal Riverside is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS overall vs Cal Poly the past 3 years. Mustangs are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Mustangs are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Big West. Mustangs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Mustangs are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Highlanders are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Highlanders are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cal Poly SLO. Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. We'll play Cal Riverside for 3 units tonight!
Tony George
Clippers / Denver Over 210
Both allowing 105 ppg, and both teams scoring well, Denver at 113 ppg pace their last 5. This will be a shootout. Off an OT win last night, Denver will be tired and play little defense, and Golden State plays no defense! A perfect set up.