Marc Lawrence
3 Units Los Angeles Lakers +3.5
The Lakers and Celtics meet in Game Four of the NBA Championship Finals in Boston Thursday night in a highly attractive winning situation for Los Angeles. That comes about as No. 1 seeds in the Championship Round of this event are 17-7 ATS as road dogs off a SU underdog win. Better yet, No. 1 seeds in this round off a SU underdog win are 8-0 ATS the next game when facing a sub .740 opponent. With Los Angeles 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four underdog roles in this year playoffs and Boston 1-10-1 ATS at home against .450 or greater Western Conference opponents this season, look for more of the same here this evening.
Jim Feist
Inner Circle: Boston Celtics -3.5
A must win game for the home team, down 2 games to 1. The last two games the Celtics have showed up defensively, holding LA to 91 and 94 the last two games, holding LA under 100 points for the first time in 11 games. Boston matches up well with the Lakers, as long as the refs don't go wild with fouls. We finally got an answer on whether Kevin Garnett was hurt or just ice cold the first two games, as he was tremendous in Game 3 with 11 of 16 shooting and 25 points. There's no injury with him. Except another big game at home from the Big Ticket. The Celtics played a terrible offensive game on Tuesday, and yet rallied from a 17-point deficit to make it a close fourth quarter. It's remarkable the Celtics were in it with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rasheed Wallace a combined 6-of-30! They are playing good defense on Kobe Bryant, who was 10 of 29 in Game 3. And the Lakers should be concerned with Andruw Bynum tweaking his knee in the second half, as the Celtics made their run when he went out. The Celtics have bounced back after losses all through the playoffs and they will again at home. Play the Celtics.
20* High Roller: Red Sox / Indians Under 9
The Boston pitching staff has really been dominant the last month, fueling their impressive run back into the pennant race. The defense, too, has improved greatly since a bad April. They have been great on this road trip, allowing 0, 4, 2, 1 and 2 runs in five straight games. The first two games of this series sailed under the total. Ace lefty Jon Lester (7-2, 2.73 ERA) has been on a roll, with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .195 off him on the season. He faces a Cleveland offense that is third worst in the AL in runs scored. One bright spot for the Indians is righty Mitch Talbot (7-4, 3.54 ERA), who has good stuff. Talbot earned his seventh win of the season on Saturday by limiting the White Sox to one run and six hits over seven innings. In his last three starts he has walked only 3 batters with a 2.66 ERA. Look for a defensive duel, play the Red Sox/Indians Under the total
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Lakers / Celtics Under 190.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under"
The Lakers dominated the hapless Celtics not the defensive end and I believe we're going to see an exact duplicate of that performance in Game 4.
Boston also shot just 16 of 24 from the foul line.
That said, Boston did play well defensively as well, and has the last two games; it held Kobe Bryant to just 10 of 29 from the floor in Game 3.
Very important to note that LA has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 9 of 10 games this year after allowing 85 points or less in its previous contest.
On the other side of the court: As I predicted before Game 3, Ray Allen was going to have an "off" night; he set a record with eight 3-pointers in the Game 2 win Sunday, then went 0-for-13 from the floor in Game 3.
Paul Pierce always continues to struggle under the relentless defensive pressure from Ron Artest.
Keep in mind that the total has in fact gone "under" the posted number in five of Boston's last six games at the Garden.
Bottom line: If Boston is going to win Game 4, it has to come out and do what it does best; have a dominating defensive game.
No change in game plan for LA; as a result, the value in Game 4 is on the UNDER!
JR O'Donnell
2* Celtics - 4
We are the 50-32 Killer C's tonight as they bounce back tonight as JR O. realizes that this will be a popular play and some times you just have to move when the #'s are there! Boston C's will give effort tonight and the Power Ratings that we have move the Celtics at - 7 at home vs the Lakers. Ray Allen will not shoot 0- the game tonight. The Kg show will take the home town boys on his back and Doc Rivers crew will roll with the fact they are 6-1 that last 7 off a loss. The Celtics are the play Tonight!
King Creole
5* Lakers / Celtics Under 190.5
We're back on the 'UNDER' in Game Four... as we expect to winning streak to hot EIGHT in a row in the NBA Playoffs. Game One went UNDER... Game Two went OVER... and Game Three went UNDER. That situation is the first one I queried in the Playbook NBA post-season database.
2-12 O/U last 4 years: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home teams playing off an 'Under'... an 'Over'... and an 'Under' in the last 3 games. In the last three seasons, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U... with an average OU margin of -13,7 points per game.
Let's take a peek at the OU tendencies for the '4.4' game specifically. That would be GAME FOUR of the FOURTH ROUND.
In the last seven seasons, the '4.4' game has gone 1-6 O/U overall... and a PERFECT 0-5 O/U when the OU line is 173 or more points.
Now, let's run a query for how the series has played out thus far in terms of overall SU and ATS results. Boston lost Game One... won Game Two... and lost Game Three,
0-4 O/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home teams (Celtics) playing off a SU favorite loss... SU win.. and SU loss in the first 3 games of the series.
We'll take a step back and query this particular situation in ALL Playoff games....
2-10 O/U last 7 years: All NBA Playoff teams playing off a SU home Playoff FAVORITE loss... and a SU Playoff road UNDERDOG win (Celtics)... when the OU line is 208 < points.
3-16-1 O/U last 3 seasons: All NBA Playoff home teams off a Playoff ATS loss of 9 or more points... and a Playoff ATS win of 9 or more points (Celtics), Favorites of less than (<) 6 points in this situation have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U.
After scoring 103 points IN Los Angeles on Sunday night, the Celtics only managed to put up 84 points at home on Tuesday night.
2-12 O/U last 7 seasons: All NBA Playoff home teams who scored 85 points in the game before that (Boston). If the OU line in these games falls in the range of > 180 points and < 202 points... the results improve to a PERFECT 0-5 O/U.
Speaking of OU line ranges, let's run another query that applies to ALL Game Fours...
3-12 O/U last 6 years: All NBA Playoff GAME FOURS when the OU line is 190 to 195 points. And in Rounds 2, 3, or 4.... the results improve to a PERFECT 0-6 O/U.
After taking 2 days off after Game One.... each team played with only ONE day of rest in Game Three. That will also be the case in Game Four. So let's run a query for the rest situation. I ran one for ALL Round Four games... and another one for ALL Game Fours. BOTH results have us squarely on the right side.
0-6 O/U last 5 seasons: All NBA Playoff ROUND FOUR home teams playing with ONE day of REST (Celtics).... playing off an ATS loss.
3-15 O/U last 5 seasons: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home teams with ONE day of REST (Celtics) when the OU line is 207 points.
0-10 O/U since 2005: All NBA Playoff ROUND FOUR games played on a THURSDAY.
Larry Ness
10* Lakers / Celtics Over 190
The Lakers finished off the Thunder in Game 6 of the first round 95-94 and over their next 11 games averaged 110.9 points with those games averaging a total of 215.7 points. That streak included LA's 102-89 win over the Celtics in Game 1 of The Finals. However, LA was held in check in a Game 2, a 103-94 loss (contest did go over, though). LA then made MAJOR defensive adjustments after Ray Allen 'EXPLODED' for 32 points while making a NBA Finals record eight three pointers in Game 2, winning Game 3 by the score of 91-84 while Allen went 0-of-13 from the floor (0-of-8 on threes). Looking ahead to Game 4, note that Kobe has yet to to have a great game in this series (he's shooting just 39.4 percent). Isn't he due for a 'monster' game? Also, the Celtics have not done much to stop either Gasol or Bynum. Gasol is averaging 20.3-10.7 this series (shooting 57.1 percent) while Bynum, who missed the 2008 Finals due to an injury, has made his presence felt "big time" in 2010, averaging 13.3-7.3 (on 52.0 percent shooting). I know the Celtics like to win with defense but I think they'll have to score to beat LA in this game. Doc Rivers spent quite a bit of time Wednesday discussing (complaining about?) the state of the officiating in the NBA Finals. He's claiming that there were several uncalled offensive fouls against the Lakers in Game 3, focusing in on what he says were "a ton of moving screens they got away with." Jackson has become a master at 'working' the refs and I believe Rivers is trying to do the same. Pierce has yet to have a good game this series (he's shooting 36.1 percent this series, while averaging 12.5 PPG the last two games, after scoring 24 in Game 1), after being named the Finals MVP in 2008 when the Celtics beat the Lakers. While Artest has done an outstanding job on the future Hall-of-Famer, I have to believe Pierce will "come up big" in this game. Allen can't possibly shoot as poorly as he did in Game 3 and Rondo has to be embarrassed with not only his mediocre performa€nce in Game 3 but with Fisher's domination of the 4th quarter on Tuesday. Can the Celtics win? Maybe not but they will score. So will LA and expect both teams to reach triple digits in this game.
Rocketman
5* Chicago Cubs +100
Milwaukee is 1-5 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Milwaukee bullpen has a 6.12 ERA overall this year and a 6.62 ERA at home this season. Ryan Dempster has a 3.76 ERA overall this year, 3.82 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Dave Bush is 1-5 with a 4.97 ERA in all games this year, 1-5 with a 4.99 ERA in all starts, 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA at home and 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA his last 3 starts. Dempster is 13-2 with a 3.18 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. Bush is 2-9 with a 5.60 ERA overall vs Chicago Cubs since 1997. We'll play the Chicago Cubs for 5 units today!
Wednesday Rainout Plays
JOHNSON / HALLADAY
LATOS / SANTANA
ATS Lock Club
4 Units San Diego/NY Mets Under 7
John Ryan
15* Titan - Padres
Anthony Redd
50 Dime Padres
KELSO
15 Units NY Mets -145
Bob Balfe
New York Mets -152
Tom Freese
San Diego at New York
Mets starter Johan Santana has allowed 4 runs total in his last 4 starts. New York is 6-1 UNDER their last 7 home games and they are 6-2-1 UNDER off a win. The Mets are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego starter Mat Latos has allowed 8 runs total in his last 6 starts. San Diego is 18-7-2 UNDER their last 27 road games and they are 20-8-2 UNDER their last 30 games overall. The Padres are 5-2 UNDER in the last 7 starts made by Latos. 15* 'TOTAL OF THE WEEK PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Santana vs. Latos)
Jimmy Moore Guaranteed Selections
4* Los Angeles Angels -115
The Angels have been playing very well lately and they start Santana who has been dominant against the A's with a career mark of 11-2 and a career ERA of 1.54. Oakland has not been playing great lately and that does not bode well going up against Santana.
JB SPORTS
3* Boston Celtics
NSA
20* Lakers +3.5
20* Red Sox -1.5
20* TBay -140
DAVID MALINSKY
4* CINCINNATI -1.5 +110 over SAN FRANCISCO
We can get an underdog return for a game that should break wide open in this one, and that makes it easy to step in.
The Giants are six games above .500 despite having an awful offense across the board – they are 14th in the N.L. in Runs, 13th in HR’s, 12th in Total Bases, 15th in W’s, and 15th in steals. But you can overcome those weaknesses with great starting pitching, which they have through most of the rotation. But not from Todd Wellemeyer at the bottom. This is where the markets have difficulties, however, in that the overall Giant record keeps prices fair, when in reality we are dealing with the awful combination of a weak offense, and a pitcher working at a 5.72 allowance. This will be the 6th road start for Wellemeyer, and San Francisco has gone 0-5 through the first five, getting out-scored by 21 runs, and only covering the +1.5 one time. He lasted only three innings in a dismal loss against punchless Pittsburgh in his last outing, which hardly brings the confidence to go up against a Cincinnati offense that leads the N.L. in Runs, HR’s and Total Bases. It is an Offense vs. Pitcher mismatch.
Meanwhile we have rarely seen a pitcher have a great MLB debut with such little fanfare as Mike Leake, with a sparkling 5-0/2.22 over 11 starts that somehow still remains off of the radar screens. Leake is a master already at working the corners of the strike zone, not issuing many W’s (only 13 in 61.1 innings since his first two starts), or HR’s (only four all season), and that makes him an excellent matchup here. If you do not give anything away, and force the Giants to make things happen with their bats, there will not be many big innings, and the fact that they lack speed on the bases has already led to being dead last in the N.L. in grounding into double-plays, something that becomes a prime factor against Leake’s sinker (he has a solid 1.90:1 ratio of ground ball outs to fly outs). There are also no fatigue ratings for the Cincinnati bullpen, so the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Joe D'Amico
Texas Rangers -1½
Texas is surging, as they have won 2 in a row and 6 of their L10. The Ranger’s are atop the A.L. West at 32-27, including a 22-11 home record. The team is averaging over 4.9 RPG on the strength of their deadly lineup. Vladamir Guerrero is leading the way ahead of the teams combined four .300 hitter’s. Guerrero is batting .336 with 51 strong RBI’s. Texas has played Seattle 9 times TY, winning 7 of those contests. In this current series, the Ranger’s are outscoring the Mariner’s 21-6. They have Tommy Hunter on the mound. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA on the season. He faces a Seattle team that has dropped 2 in a row and 6 of their L10. The M’s are in last-place in the A.L. west at 23-36, including an 8-19 away record. Seattle is posting just 3.6 RPG. Their top five batter’s in the lineup have combined for a mere 13 HR’s. Now, DH and only power-hitter, Mike Sweeney is on the DL with a back problem. Due to his absence, the M’s don’t have anyone that can clear the base paths. Seattle has Ryan Rowland-smith throwing today. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 6.95 ERA TY. This includes a 0-2, 8.72 record on the road. The M’s are 1-7 their L8 vs. the Ranger’s, 1-5 their L6 vs. RH starters, and 0-4 in Rowland-Smith’s L4 starts. The Ranger’s are 20-8 their L28 at home, 5-1 their L6 home games vs. LH starters, and 6-1 in Hunter’s L7 starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Texas on the Run Line.
POWER PLAY WINS
Boston Celtics -3.5