BIG AL
Braves/Diamondbacks Under 9.5
Analysis: At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total. The Detroit Tigers apparently felt so good about the state of their starting pitching that they shipped the second lefthanded starter this season over to the National League. At the beginning of the month, Detroit sent Willis to the Diamonbacks for righth ander Billy Buckner and cash (they had shipped Nate Robertson off to the Marlins in a similar deal at the end of Spring training). Willis will no doubt be glad to get back to the NL where he dominated hitters for several years as a member of the Marlins and he didn't waste much time showing that he can still get back to that form as he shut out the Rockies over six innings in his debut on June 5. And even more impressive about that outing is that it was in Arizona where the park is known to strongly favor hitters over pitchers. Willis is back there again this afternoon and his opposing pitcher will be one of the hottest in the NL in young righthander Tommy Hanson, who no doubt has a little revenge on his mind as his last loss was back on May 15 at home against this Arizona club (his only loss since a 1-0 shutout at the hands of the Mets on April 25). But Hanson has been much better on the road (2.19 ERA) than at home (5.40) this season. Take the 'under.'
Scott Rickenbach
10* Boston / LA Lakers Over
Tuesday’s game stayed under the total but both teams shot poorly from three point land and that had a lot to do with it. We don’t expect a repeat of that in Game Four and we also would not be surprised to see a let-up, even though it would be inadvertent, from the Lakers defense in this one. It’s just natural for a team to have a bit of a let-up in defensive intensity after a big, emotional road win that put them in the drivers seat in this series. Note that the Lakers are already 8-3 to the over in this post-season when they are leading in a series. As for the Celtics, they will undoubtedly fight back hard here and we look for them to resume the big shot success they had against the Lakers in Game Two in Los Angeles. Keep in mind, Boston is 5-2 to the over this season (and 20-11 to the over the last three seasons) when they are off of a game where they scored 85 points or less. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite, the Celtics are 14-8 to the over this season.
In Game Two in Los Angeles, the C’s got a huge game from Rajon Rondo with his fantastic skills on the offensive end. Also, Ray Allen had an amazing night from three point land. The Celtics offense was simply “clicking” on Sunday and they just couldn’t keep their momentum after scoring such a key win on the road. Now, with their backs against the wall (and knowing they simply can’t afford to lose anther home game here) we look for Rondo to again be on the attack in Game Four and we look for the looks for the Celtics offense to open back up again as a result of his playmaking ability. The key here though, is that the Lakers offense is going to battle all the way in this one too. They scored 91 points Tuesday even though Kobe Bryant made just 10 of 29 shots. He’s unlikely to have such another poor shooting night here and we certainly don’t expect Ray Allen to go 0 for 13 from the floor again. Keep in mind, other than Bryant, the rest of the Lakers made 50% of their shots Tuesday. As for Boston, other than Allen, the rest of the Celtics made 50% of their shots from the floor Tuesday. We get line value as this total has been pushed down further when, the reality is, a number of factors are pointing to a higher scoring game here. As you can see from the numbers above, we’ve also got some strong trends supporting the over in this one! Play OVER the total in Boston as a *10* Top Play selection.
10* Baltimore / New York Yankees Over
Yesterday the Orioles and Yankees combined for 21 hits but the game only ended up with 6 runs on the scoreboard. That is helping to give us some line value with today’s total because, even with yesterday’s under, the Yanks are still 22-13 to the over in games against right-handed starters this season. The Orioles are starting rookie Jake Arrieta tonight and, though he’s put up impressive numbers in AAA this season, he’s still a 24 year old rookie making his MLB debut and he’s been known to have issues with his command. Facing a powerful and intimidating Yankees lineup is likely to make those issues with command even worse for Arrieta. Note that he’s facing a Yankees team that is 24-10 to the over this season when the posted total on their game is 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Yanks are 13-8 to the over the last three seasons when they are a road favorite of -175 or more. The Orioles are 6-1 to the over the last three seasons when they are a home dog of +175 or more and we do feel that AJ Burnett is getting a little too much respect in this spot. Keep in mind, he’s allowed 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 6 starts. Yes, Burnett has enjoyed success against the Orioles this season but, even though he’s 11-2 against Baltimore in his career, he has compiled a 4.42 ERA against them.
The Orioles confidence at the plate is on the rise as they’ve pounded out 35 hits in their last 3 games. Yesterday’s under was just the 2nd under in Baltimore’s last 7 games while the Yankees, even with Wednesday’s under, are still 16-9 to the over in games against AL East opponents this season. Burnett is 3-2 on the road this season but note the 4.97 ERA and the .274 BAA. Also, the Yankees right-hander is 3-0 with a miniscule ERA in day games but note that Burnett has compiled a 4.72 ERA in his night games. Though he enjoyed success against Baltimore in his two starts versus the Orioles this season, those outings were much earlier in the year when he was rolling. In fact, after his last outing against the O’s his ERA was just 1.99 on the year. That was in early May. Burnett’s ERA has since risen by nearly two full runs and we expect his recent struggles to continue as the Orioles stay hot at the plate. The O’s will need all the runs they can get because their rookie hurler, Arrieta, is facing a tough test tonight and will struggle against the red hot Bronx Bombers. Play OVER the total in Baltimore as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Oakland / Los Angeles Angels Over
Ervin Santana has been on a strong run and shows some impressive numbers in his season stats. However, he’s also struggled much more on the road than at home throughout his career. Even though, this season, his ERA is better on the road than at home, that’s truly a bit of a fluke because Santana has been hit 31 points higher on the road compared to at home. Also, he’s been hit 32 points higher in day games than at night. In his career, Santana has a 5.08 ERA on the road and a 5.32 ERA in day games. He has great career numbers against the A’s but Oakland hit him quite well on May 15th and there easily could have been a lot more damage than the three runs (two earned) that were charged to Santana. The good news for Angels fans here, even if Santana struggles the way we expect him to, is that Los Angeles has been red hot at the plate and they’ve scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games. This total is only an 8 and, of course, part of the reason for that is how well Trevor Cahill has been pitching for Oakland. Cahill, though he has very impressive overall numbers this season, has run into trouble lately with free passes…he’s walked 11 batters in his last 18.1 innings.
The way the Angels are hitting right now, they are a very dangerous team for Cahill to face as they will be patient and wait for their pitch. When the hitters are “in a zone” like the Angels sticks are right now, they make pitchers work and they do damage when pitches do find the sweet spot of the plate. We feel that Cahill is over-rated right now due to his unusually strong start to this season. Keep in mind, this is still a guy who went 10-13 last season with a 4.63 ERA. Also, despite a low ERA at home, Cahill has been hit 37 points higher in Oakland compared to on the road. Additionally, he’s been hit 18 points higher in day games compared to his night starts. The Angels are seeing him for a 2nd time this season and we’ve used this “theory” before and it works. Oftentimes a team seeing a pitcher for a 2nd time will enjoy more success at the plate than in the first match-up. This is especially true when that team is hot at the plate like the Angels are now. The only other team that Cahill has faced for a 2nd time this season was the Rangers and the A’s right-hander labored a lot in the 2nd match-up and, though he was only charged with two earned runs, that game ended up a 7-6 final and a similar result today would not surprise us at all as the Angels get their 2nd look at Cahill this season. Play OVER the total in Oakland as an *8* Regular Play selection.
The Duke's Sports
LA Lakers Over (189') for 2 Units
Perimeter shooting in Game 3 was poor by both teams: While the Celtics shot just 22% from beyond the arc, the Lakers shot a dismal 13%. Despite that, the teams shooting percentages from the floor were respectable at 44 and 45%, respectively; moreover, the refs did there part in extending the game with by sending each team to the free throw line 24 times. And, like we projected, transition points were few and far between (20). Tonight, we'll look for the Celtics to attempt to shake the Lakers' stronghold defensively in the half-court game and shoot quicker in the shot clock with sharper passes and better dribble penetration by Rondo. And both perimeter games should improve. The Celtics are 35-16 O/U following a SU loss. "Over " the call.
ASA
3* Mariners/ Rangers Under 10
While Ryan Rowland-Smith has poor numbers for the year he should not be considered a lost cause. In both a relief role and a starting role Rowland-Smith was a very effective pitcher for the Mariners in 2008 and 2009 featuring season ERA marks of 3.42 and 3.74 respectively. After decent early season numbers Rowland-Smith hit a wall with three consecutive terrible starts in early May. He was moved to the bullpen for the rest of the month where he did not allow an earned run in three appearances and last week he made a strong start against a hot Angels team, allowing just one run and four hits in five innings. He could be in line for another solid outing in Texas Thursday evening.
Texas is a far better hitting team against right-handed pitching, going just 9-9 for the year against left-handers and featuring a far lower team average in every situation against southpaws. The Rangers have posted impressive offensive numbers in the last two weeks but they struggled considerably in the last start against a left-hander as Cliff Lee shut them down to open this series. The ‘under’ is 6-3 in the last nine Texas home games against left-handed starters and the ‘under’ is also 8-4-1 in the last 13 meetings between these teams in Arlington.
Tommy Hunter made an incredibly impressive 2010 debut with a complete game win against the Rays last weekend. Hunter was an effective starting pitcher for the Rangers last season and after a successful start to the season in AAA he made a smooth transition back to the majors. Hunter allowed just one run and five hits in that start and he pitched extremely well in two outings against the Mariners last season, giving up just three earned runs in over 13 innings. Hunter will face a Seattle line-up that is batting just .237 for the season against right-handed pitching and .234 for the year in
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Units LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Over 190
Kelso
10 Units Yankees -1.5
10 Units Nationals -155
5 Unit PARLAY BOTH
10 Units Mets -150
3 Units Angels -110
Teddy Covers
Celtics -3.5
Blue Jays
Young Guns
3* Yankees Over
BOB VALENTINO
100 DIME Boston Celtics
Executive
250% Lakers
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LA Lakers and Boston OVER 190
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LA Lakers -3.5
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$500K COMPUTER CRUSHER BASEBALL POD
Boston w/Lester -195
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Boston -3.5
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Boston -3.5