Billy Coleman
4'* Lakers Under
Evan Altemus
5 Units Boston +5.5
3 Units Under 192
The key for the Celtics is being well rested because of their older veteran players. They will be well rested for this game after several days off after eliminating Orlando in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Another key for Boston is that they have had a few days to travel, so they should be well rested after the long trip across country. The time change won’t be a problem either because this game will be played at 9pm EST. In addition, the Celtics are a very experienced group which will not be fazed by playing in the Staples Center, and they had an outstanding road record this season. Because of that, there is a tremendous amount of value on Boston because the Lakers are getting a great deal of points from the oddsmakers due to their home court. Another factor in our favor is that Los Angeles isn’t a dominating team that overwhelms opponents and keeps the pedal down. The Lakers let every playoff opponent come back in most of their home games, so even if Boston trails by double digits, there is a good chance that they would come back and cover the point spread. That’s especially true because Boston is such a tough and grinding team, while Los Angeles struggles to bring a consistent effort for the entire game. The side and total are also related in this game. Boston will not win a high scoring game with Los Angeles, which means if they win or keep the game close then it will go under. Los Angeles has a tendency to also play to pace/scoring of their opponent. They played a grinding lower scoring series against Oklahoma City and high scoring, more up-tempo games against Phoenix and Utah. In addition, both of these teams have had several days off, so the offense won’t be as good and legs will be fresher to play defense. Look for this game to be close and go under the total with Boston having a great chance to win the game outright.
Tony George
Boston +5.5
These have been close games in the last 2 these teams played this season, a 1-1 split and each one a 1 point game. I cannot ignore a team who plays defense like Boston. All things equal on the court other than Kobe is the best player in the NBA, I have to admit it is scary to go against LA at home in the Finals, but when you look at the playoffs, OK City played aggressive defense against LA and gave them fits, and when the Suns forced a matchup zone and manned up with their big men, they gave LA trouble as well. Boston can and will play solid defense, and are 18 ppg on defense better than LA. All things equal, a far better defensive team getting points like this in the NBA is a take, and Boston has serious talent up top, even with a banged up Rondo. Play 1 Unit on Boston
Larry Ness
10* NBA Game of the Year LA Lakers
The NBA has had its sights set on a Kobe and LeBron showdown for the NBA Finals for two straight years now and gone 0-for-2. However, the league can't be unhappy with yet another Celtics/Lakers matchup. Boston is in its 21st Finals and the Lakers in their 31st, as the league's two most storied franchises meet for the 12th time. Boston won the first eight meetings (the first seven of which came no later than 1969), LA the next two ('85 and '87) and then after a 21-season gap, the Celtics made it 9-2 all-time vs the Lakers by winning the title in 2008. The Celtics won that series in six games, while going a perfect 6-0 ATS. However, this is a much different (and better) LA team. Kobe's in "the zone" right now, entering this series having scored 30 or more points in 10 of his last 11 games (32.9 PPG during that stretch). Gasol was just "finding his way" with the Lakers back in 2008 but now is one of the league's premier players, averaging 20.0 PPG and 10.9 RPG this postseason, while shooting 56.5 percent. Bynum is not 100% but he's available, which is something he very much wasn't back in 2008. Odom is off a terrific 2009 postseason in which LA won it's 15th title plus this postseason, has improved in each round. He averaged 7.8-6.8 vs the Thunder, 9.5-10.0 vs the Jazz and 14.0-11.8 vs the Suns. Then there is Artest, who like Odom, has improved his scoring in each round. He averaged just 8.2 (34.4%) vs the Thunder, then 12.3 (42.6%) vs the Jazz and 14.3 (45.9) vs the Suns. Back in 2008, Kobe had to guard Pierce, which affected his ability to score offensively. This time around, Artest will draw that assignment and let me point out what he was able to do with Durant, the NBA's youngest-ever scoring champ in round one. Durant averaged 30.1 PPG on 47.6 percent shooting during the regular season but Artest held him to 25.0 PPG and more importantly, just 35.0 percent from the floor, including a woeful 28.5 perce‡nt on threes. Boston's "Big Three" was in its first season together back in 2008 but all three are two years older now and KG really seems to be wearing down, looking far less than 100 percent. He averaged just 10.3 PPG while shooting only 38.9 percent vs the Magic, after averaging 15.8 and 18.8 PPG in Boston's first two series, on 53.9 percent shooting. Pierce averaged 24.3 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting vs Orlando, after averaging only 13.5 PPG on 34.5 percent shooting vs the Cavs. His assignment vs Cleveland was LeBron and that clearly hurt his offense and expect a similar situation in The Finals, as Pierce figures to be Kobe's "main" defender. Rondo was spectacular vs the Cavs (20.7-6.3-11.8 on 54.1 percent shooting) but vs the Heat and Magic (14.5-4.7-9.0), his numbers were more in line with his regular season stats (13.7-4.4-9.8). Rondo's VERY GOOD, he's not GREAT! I don't trust Rasheed to show any consistency, as he scored in double digits in just FIVE of 17 postseason games this year, scoring four or less NINE times (has averaged 6.5-2.3). As for Big Baby, he's had one game of note per series (23 in game vs Miami, 15 in Game 5 vs Cle and 17 in Game 3 vs Orlando). Davis has averaged 5.2 PPG in Boston's other 14 playoff games. LA is a dominating 28-3 SU at home the last three postseasons (although right around .500 ATS) but note in their first home game of each of their 11 previous series, has gone 10-1, winning those 10 games by an average margin of 9.0 PPG. That's not an overwhelming margin of victory but's it is about two buckets over the opening pointspread for Game 1. LA opened last year's Finals with a resounding 100-75 win over the Magic and while this year's veteran Celtics team is NOT the inexperienced Magic, I see the Lakers winning very comfortably in Game 1.
JR O'Donnell
3* Lakers -5.5
The Lakers will not be the popular side tonight as the public will ride the Boston Celtics knowing that the Lake show gang is a slow starting club. The Lakers have a swagger about them and the way the Lakers play on the "Defensive" end as we have huge edges on the Defensive and Rebounding! The JR O POWER RATINGS have the Lake show by 9.5 points. We will call for the Lakers to shut down the Celtics Rondo who has just played out of his mind in the NBA playoffs so far. Celtics are 1-4 the last 5 off three plus days rest and the Lake Show 6-1 the last 7.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Los Angeles Lakers (-) vs Boston
We could sit here and write paragraph after paragraph about all the match-ups and which team each match-up favors, etc. However, all of that information is widely publicized and certainly has also been factored into this line. As a result, and as we’ve often stated in past write-ups, the key to turning ATS wins is often finding that extra ‘edge’ or ‘hunger’ or ‘motivation’. We believe we have that here with the Lakers in Game One of this series. As satisfying as it was for the Lakers to roll through the Magic last season to win the NBA Championship, they still have unfinished business on their agenda. That unfinished business was to avenge their loss to the Celtics in the NBA Finals back in 2008. Now, Los Angeles is getting what they hope for as they seek revenge in these 2010 NBA Finals. It was some of the Celtics extracurricular activities – both on and off the court – that still hold extra meaning with the Lakers and have added extra fuel to their fire for Game One. Just as we talked about in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals when the Lakers (and, particularly, Kobe Bryant) got extra motivation from the Suns Steve Nash guaranteeing the series would go seven games, Bryant and the Lakers have plenty of motivation here after what happened against the Celtics two years ago. There are key difference makers this season for the Lakers while, for Boston, the reality is that they are simply two years older! Yes, Rajon Rondo is an exception to that and he’s been a phenomenal player this season but you can bet that Phil Jackson will have some extra wrinkles put into play here that will be geared at slowing down Rondo. This is Bryant’s chance to get back at Paul Pierce and Company and his motivation will likely be never higher than it is for Game One as the Lakers look to defend their home court in this first game and immediately set the tone for the entire series!
Though you would think extra rest would help the aging Celtics, Boston is actually 3-7 ATS this season (and 7-12 ATS the last three seasons) when playing with three or more days of rest. Also, the Celtics were just 1-8 ATS against Pacific Division teams this season. Additionally, after a win by ten points or more, Boston is just 11-18 ATS this season. The Lakers are 6-3 ATS this season (and 18-9 ATS the last three seasons) when they are playing with three or more days of rest. Also, off of an upset win as an underdog, the Lakers are 18-9 ATS the last three seasons. As a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points, the Lakers are 13-8 ATS the last three seasons. They also are playing this game with home loss revenge (Boston’s lone ATS cover against the Pacific Division this season) and the Lakers are 19-11 ATS the last three seasons when playing with home loss revenge. And, as noted above, the motivation here for LA goes much deeper than that and will be a key factor in their intensity and level of play tonight and the Celtics will struggle to match that intensity…no matter what the stage is as, yes, it’s NBA Finals time. Play the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Florida vs Milwaukee Over
Milwaukee’s bullpen has simply been horrific so far this season and Florida’s bullpen hasn’t been much better. The Marlins bullpen ERA ranks in the lower third of the majors while the Brewers bullpen ERA ranks next to last. Now, of course the Marlins bullpen may not play a huge factor today because it’s Josh Johnson on the mound for Florida. However, don’t be surprised if Johnson runs out of gas a little early here. He threw 121 pitches in 7 innings in his most recent start (when he was outdueled by Roy Halladay) against the Phillies. Even though we have plenty of respect for Johnson, we have no qualms about playing the over in this match-up. One of the keys is that the Marlins right-hander has faced a lot of weaker (and/or struggling) lineups so far this season. The few stronger lineups he’s faced (like the Phillies) he’s been fortunate enough to catch at a time when they were slumping. Now Johnson is facing a Brewers lineup that is powerful and that has scored 28 runs in their last 5 games.
The Brewers are 7-3 to the over this season when the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Milwaukee is 18-10 to the over in road games this season. The Brewers are 24-10 to the over against right-handed starters. As for the Marlins, they are an amazing 16-5 to the over this season when the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Florida is also 19-10 to the over in home games this season. At home with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs, note that the Marlins are 41-19 to the over the last three seasons. Included in that impressive record is a 10-3 mark this season! The biggest reason we see those trends adding another W today is that the Brewers are starting Chris Capuano. Note that the Brewers southpaw went 5.12 with a 5.10 ERA in his most recent MLB season and that was way back in 2007. He’s had multiple surgeries since then (including the famed Tommy John procedure) and we expect Capuano to struggle in his first MLB start in 2.5 years! In his career, Capuano has been hit 42 points higher by righties than lefties and the Marlins will be able to ‘stack’ their lineup with right-handed lumber. Also, the Brewers southpaw has been hit 45 points higher on the road compared to at home in his career. He’ll have his hands full here as Florida has scored 22 runs and pounded out 31 hits so far in this series. Also, another key is that Capuano is unlikely to go deep in his first start back and Milwaukee’s bullpen continues to be a trouble spot! Play OVER the total in Florida as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* Detroit vs Cleveland Over
Each of the first two games in this series have stayed under the total but, prior to this, the Indians last 12 games had gone 10-1-1 to the over! As for Detroit, they had only stayed under the total twice in their last eight games heading into this series. With today’s pitching match-up being conducive to an over, don’t be surprised if these teams “over tendencies” return in a big way this afternoon. We are well aware of the fact that the Tigers Rick Porcello is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA in his five career starts against the Indians. The reason this does not concern is because the Tigers have lost 6 of the last 9 starts that Porcello has made and he’s been rocked at a .320 clip this season. He’s just not missing bats often enough and things aren’t exactly heading the right direction for Porcello either. The Detroit right-hander has allowed 24 hits in 19.1 innings in his last three starts.
The Indians also have pitching concerns in this match-up. David Huff gets the start for Cleveland and he’s allowed at least three earned runs in seven straight starts even though he hasn’t lasted more than six innings in any of those outings. The Indians southpaw lost his only start against the Tigers this season and that outing was in Detroit. In fact, on the road this season, Porcello is 0-5 with a 6.53 ERA and teams are hitting .328 against him. He’s already allowed 10 homers in 50.1 innings this season after allowing 16 in 128.1 innings last season! You can see he’s heading the wrong direction in this area as well. The Indians, as a road dog of +175 to +200, are 10-6 to the over the last three seasons. Detroit is 15-10 to the over as a home favorite of -175 to -200 the last three seasons. Also, the Tigers are 12-7 to the over this season when playing a team with a losing record. Look for the Indians to go to 11-3-1 to the over as a slugfest erupts on a mild afternoon at Comerica Park. Keep in mind, although the Tigers bullpen is the best in the American League so far this season, the Indians bullpen is the worst in the American League! Play OVER the total in Detroit as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Marc Lawrence
Boston Celtics +5.5
When the Celtics meet the Lakers in Game One of this Championship series Thursday night they will take the floor knowing the teams in Game One off an NBA playoff series clinching upset underdog win are just 13-25-5 ATS since 1998 when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win, including 0-9-1 ATS if they allowed 100 or more points in the upset victory. With the Lakers 1-10 ATS at home in this series when the Celtics own a win percentage of .555 or more, including 0-10 ATS when laying three or more points, the points become the play with this defensive dog here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Boston.
King Creole
3* Celtics / Lakers Under 192
Get this one in AS SOON AS POSSIBLE as the OU line in Game One is dropping fast. Started at 195.5 points. Current OU line as of Tuesday is only 191.5 to 192.5 points.
In the two regular season meetings THIS season, the UNDER went a PERFECT 2-0. The OU line for the Jan. 31st game in Boston was 195.5 points. Final score: Lakers 90 / Celtics 89. The game went UNDER by 16.5 points, The OU line for the Feb. 18th rematch game in Los Angeles was only 188.5. Final score: Celtics 87 / Lakers 86. The game went UNDER (again!) by 15.5 points. When these two teams played each other in the 2008 NBA Finals, the GAME ONE O/U line was a similar line to this years (191.5). And the outcome was (yet) another UNDER (by -4.5 points).
Let's look at each teams OU tendencies in Game One of a Playoff series:
LOS ANGELES is 2-10 O/U since 2003 in Playoff GAME ONES when the OU line is 210 < points... and 1-8 O/U when the OU line is 198 < points....
BOSTON is 2-9 O/U since 2004 in Playoff GAME ONES... and 1-8 O/U when the OU line is 198 < points...
When querying the FIRST GAME of the FINAL ROUND in our Playbook NBA database... it's been ALL about the "UNDER" as of late!
In the last 6 seasons, the '4.1' Game (RD 4 / GM 1) has gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U. Average OU line: 186.6 points.... Average total points scored: only 167.8. The average game has gone UNDER by almost 20 points!
LA wrapped up Round Three with a big 111-103 ROAD win over their division rival Phoenix Suns (and we were ON 'em).
1-15 O/U last 6 years: All Playoff GAME ONE home teams (in RD 2, 3, 4) off a SU Playoff road win (Lakers)... when the OU line is < 198 points.
3-13 O/U last 7 years: All Playoff GAME ONE teams (in RD 2, 3, 4) off a SU Playoff UNDERDOG win (Lakers). Since the 2005 season, these teams have gone 1-9 O/U.
1-6-1 O/U: All Playoff GAME ONE teams (in RD 3 or 4) at home (Lakers) after eliminating a fellow DIVISION opponent in the previous round.
The Over / Under line in Saturday's Game Six against the Suns was 217 points. In Thursday's Game One against the Celtics, the OU line is almost 25 points LOWER!
0-6 O/U la€st 8 years: All Playoff home teams with an OU line of 210 points.
Both teams (Lakers and Celtics) went UNDER the TOTAL in their respective Round Three Playoff-clinching wins...
1-8 O/U last 7 years: All Playoff GAME ONES (in RD 3 or 4) when BOTH teams went 'Under' in their last game. If the host is favored by 8 < points (like the Lakers are), the results are a PERFECT 0-7 O/U.
Boston comes in off a Game Six HOME win of 12 points (96 to 84). Prior to that, they lost on the road to the Magic by a score of 113 to 92.
2-17 O/U last 4 years: All Playoff GAME ONE teams (in RD 2, 3. 4) off a double-digit home win (Celtics). And when the OU line in these games is points... and a SU Playoff LOSS of 12 > points (Celtics)... when the OU line is > 188 points. In the last 3 seasons, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-11 O/U (and already 0-2 O/U THIS season).
1-14 O/U last 3 years (and already 0-4 O/U THIS season): All Playoff road teams off a SU home win in which they allowed points.
A couple of queries for this particular Day of the Week SEALS the deal for this Best Bet:
0-11 O/U last 7 years: All Playoff ROUND FOUR games on a THURSDAY... when the OU line is 173 > points...
0-6 O/U last 13 years: All Playoff GAME ONES (any round) on a THURSDAY... when the OU line is 173 > points.
Don Wallace Sports
10* Lakers -5.5
Stephen Nover
25 Dime Boston Celtics
Bobby Maxwell
400 Unit LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Washington at Houston
Time: 2:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MARTIN, J.D. vs. (R) MOEHLER, B
Play: Washington (ML -105)
The Astros have won back to back games over Washington, but I like the Nats to square this series with the getaway day win. Not much question that the road team has the better offense, but I also like their pitching to win out today. JD Martin had been hot down on the farm prior to his promotion, and he pitched well in a tough loss over the weekend. The Astros are into the scrap heap here with the shopworn Brian Moehler making a start. Houston is not a bad fade at any reasonable price, and this is simply a good fundamental spot for Washington. Spot the small price with the Nationals.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matchup: Minnesota at Seattle
Time: 10:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PAVANO, C vs. (R) HERNANDEZ, F
Play: Minnesota (ML +125)
The Mariners are up 2-1 in their series with the Twins, but I like the road team to even things up tonight. Felix Hernandez has been battling some early inning issues lately, and Seattle has lost every one of the last seven starts by their ace. You never know for sure what you'll get from Carl Pavano. But he's up against a lineup he should be able to handle tonight, and the fact is that I'm getting the considerably stronger entry at a nice underdog price. The Twins fit the ideal value dog profile tonight, and I'll be grabbing the number with Minnesota.
Big Al McMordie's 3-Game Package
Royals
Nationals
As/Red Sox under
Young Gun Sports
4* LA Angels +100
ATS Lock Club
4 units on Washington -120 over Houston
3 units on Texas -115 over Chicago White Sox
3 units on Celtics +5.5 over Lakers