Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, March 10,2011

Chris Jordan

400* Auburn +11.5

RAS

UC Irvine +10.5

Santa Barbara +1.5

Cal St Fullerton + 1.5

Jeff Benton

15 Dime Boston College
15 Dime USC / California Over
15 Dime New Mexico

15 Dime Boston College

Wake Forest went 1-15 in the ACC this year, and in those 16 games, the Demon Deacons were competitive exactly twice: a five-point home win over Virginia and a one-point home loss to Miami, Fla. Other than that, Wake Forest lost 13 league games by an average of 23 ppg, with all 13 losses by 14 points or more. Included was Sunday’s 84-68 loss at Boston College, and even if you give Wake Forest credit for a spread-cover in that defeat – the line was anywhere between 15½ and 16½ – the Demon Deacons were still just 5-10-1 ATS in ACC games, never once cashing in back-to-back contests.

While Wake Forest enters the ACC tournament on a 10-game losing skid (and 2-19 since mid-December), Boston College has posted three straight convincing wins over the Demon Deacons, Virginia Tech (76-61 on the road) and Virginia (63-44 on the road). And you know the first rule of thumb come tournament time: Ride the teams that are playing well, fade the teams that are playing poorly. Here, we get the perfect storm of such teams facing each other. Not only that, but Boston College knows it needs a win (if not two) to punch its Big Dance ticket. At the same time, it’s not a stretch to predict that the Demon Deacons just want their season to end.

Finally, even if you count Sunday’s game against Wake Forest as a non-cover for Boston College, the Eagles are still 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and the favorite is still 7-1 ATS in this rivalry since B.C. joined the Big East in 2005-06. Eagles soar to an easy victory.

15 Dime USC / California Over

Final scores of the two meetings this season between Cal and USC: 68-66 and 78-75. Both games went over the posted total, part of a 10-1-1 OVER run in this rivalry. That includes two meetings in the conference tournament that not only cleared the posted total, but look at the final scores: 79-75 and 82-67.

Cal comes into this game having averaged nearly 81 ppg over its last eight games, with the Bears topping 70 points in each of those contests, with the “over” cashing seven times. And that’s part of a 19-6-1 “over” stretch for Cal. USC, meanwhile, has also shown some offensive spark lately, averaging 68.8 ppg over its last six contests. And even though the Trojans play outstanding defense, they’ve been lit up pretty good this year by the Pac-10’s three most explosive offensive squads.

The over is 9-1-1 in USC’s last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record, while the Bears – in addition to the aforementioned 19-6-1 “over” streak – are on high-scoring runs of 52-20-2 in Pac-10 play, 64-27-1 following a victory, 10-1-1 versus winning teams and 9-1-1 when taking the court as an underdog of less than seven points.

15 Dime New Mexico

Here’s how New Mexico’s last 11 games unfolded: Seven victories (including two over BYU) and four losses by 6, 6, 2 and 3 points (the latter in overtime). In fact, of the Lobos’ last 10 defeats, eight were by six points or fewer, and those eight losses were by a cumulative 25 points. In other words, the Lobos are in almost every game they play, and they carry a three-game winning streak into this contest (including the 82-64 win at BYU two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, Colorado State closed the regular season by losing four of its last five games, including double-digit losses at Air Force (74-57) and San Diego State (66-48). The Rams had just two victories against conference teams that finished in the top six in the standings: 78-63 at UNLV and 68-62 over New Mexico at home. But both teams avenged those losses to Colorado State (UNLV won 68-61 in Fort Collins; New Mexico won by the same score in Albuquerque). Other than that, Rams’ only other Mountain West wins came against Air Force (the teams split their season series), Utah, TCU and Wyoming.

New Mexico is playing much better basketball right now, and prior to their six-point loss in Colorado on Feb. 12, the Lobos had won eight in a row in this rivalry.

Dr. Bob

3* Kansas State (-6½) over Colorado

Kansas State lost twice to Colorado this season but the Wildcats apply to a 58-17-2 ATS conference tournament revenge situation and they enter this tournament playing very well (6-0 straight up, 5-1 ATS). Kansas State actually applies to an incredibly good 131-39-4 ATS conference tournament situation and my ratings the Wildcats by 6½ points. Both teams struggled away from home this season (Colorado 4-10-1 ATS and Kansas State 4-9-1 ATS), but my road/neutral ratings favor Kansas State by 7 points. With a great situation and a fair line the Wildcats are a very good play. I’ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 or less and for 2-Stars up to -8 points.
3 Star Best Bet

3* Arizona (-10½) over Oregon State

Arizona has had some trouble with Oregon State this season, losing in Corvallis early in the Pac-10 season and then winning by 11 as a 14½ point favorite at home last week. However, Arizona applies to a very strong 131-39-4 ATS conference tournament situation and a 33-4-1 ATS situation while Oregon State applies to a negative 50-118-6 ATS situation. My ratings favor Arizona by 12 points using all of Arizona’s games this season, but the Wildcats weren’t as good in conference games and using conference games only for each team would result in a fair line of Wildcats by 10 points. The fair line is between 10 and 12 points (lets call it 11), but I’m willing to give up some line value based on how strong the situation is. I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at -12 or less, for 4-Stars at -10 or less and for 2-Stars at -12½ points.

Opinion/Possible Best Bet

California (+3½) over USC

California improved early in the conference season when poor shooting G Gary Franklin quit the team. Franklin shot just 29% and led the team in shot attempts despite his poor percentage and Pac-10 freshman of the year Allen Crabbe (a very good shooter) starting taking more shots without Franklin around. Cal is 10-5 straight up and 11-3-1 ATS without Franklin and with Crabbe (Cal lost 2 games when he was out with a concussion) and they’re just as good as a USC team that is also improved since earlier this season (PG Jio Fontan missed the first 10 games). In those 15 games with their current lineup only Washington was able to beat the Bears by more than 2 points. My ratings pick this game even and USC is just 10-21-3 ATS as a favorite in two seasons under coach Kevin O’Neill. Cal beat USC in L.A. and lost by 2 points at home in a game that Crabbe missed (Cal’s bench is thin so missing Crabbe really hurt). I’ll lean with the Bears at +3 or more and I’d take California in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.

Wunderdog

4 Units Buffalo Sabres

4 Units St Louis Blues

PPP

6% Pitt

6% Kansas St

Real animal

5* West Michigan

3* Pitt

Sean Higgs

5* Pitt

4* Pitt Over

Sam Paolini

20* Montreal -115

Helmut

Pittsburgh Under 131.5
UAB Under 125
Arizona Under 142
Long Beach State Over 151
Mississippi Valley State Under 133.5

California Sports

4* New Mexico
4* Kent St
4* Vanderbilt
3* Wake Forest
3* Cal riverside

ATS Lock Club

6 Units W. Mich
5 Units Georgia
5 Units So. Miss
4 Units Cincinnati

Jimmy Boyd

5* Dallas -5.5

3* Missouri -3

3* Indiana +4.5

Power Play Wins

New York Knicks +6