RAS
Vanderbilt -1.5
Gonzaga +2
Maddux Sports
10 Units Michigan State -1.5
10 Units Vanderbilt -2
10 Units Louisville -9.5
10 Units BYU -8
10 Units Gonzaga +1.5
10 Units Temple -2.5
10 Units Wisconsin -4
Brandon Lang
Wofford
Dr Bob
3* Vanderbilt
3* BYU
3* Wisconsin
2* UCLA
2* W Virginia
2* Florida
Steve Budin
Temple -2.5
BIG AL
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Wofford. The Terriers upset Charleston 77-67 to win the Southern Conference Tourney, and off that win fall into a negative system of mine that's 2-27 ATS since 2005 which fades certain NCAA Tourney teams off big wins. BYU, of course, has been hurt by the suspension of Brandon Davies (11.1 ppg; 6.6 rebounds), but his absence has been factored into this pointspread. And Wofford, in my opinion, doesn't have the defense required to keep BYU's Jimmer Fredette -- the nation's leading scorer at 28.5 ppg -- in check. Wofford ranks 193rd among Division 1 teams in defensive efficiency, including 216th in effective FG percentage. That's not going to cut it against a BYU offense that ranks 8th in efficiency. But what makes BYU special is that it can also play defense, as it ranks 38th in efficiency. Based on my numbers, this pointspread is too low. Lay the points.
At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs over Butler. Last season, the Bulldogs made a celebrated run to the Championship game, and we even used them over Michigan State as our College Basketball Game of the Year. But I don't see a Cinderella story in the cards this year. Last season, one of the things I loved about the Bulldogs was that they ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, but this season, they've tumbled all the way down to 76th in that category. Old Dominion ranks much higher at 49th, and are also one of the nation's best rebounding clubs (40.2 rpg; +12.2 rebound margin). Butler falls into a negative 29-66 ATS system of mine based on its back-to-back wins and covers over Cleveland St and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to end its Horizon League season, and it is also a poor 0-6 ATS this year off a double-digit conference win. Take Old Dominion.
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Morehead St. Louisville was upset by UConn in the Big East Championship game, but that loss will serve as fuel for the Cardinals here as they fall into 37-8 and 67-33 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams off losses to end their regular season. At this time of year, I really like to play on certain teams with strong defensive efficiency numbers, if the match-up is right, and this one surely fits the bill. Louisville ranks #5 in defensive efficiency, and balances that with the 39th ranked offense (which favors the 3-point shot as a big part of that offense). Louisville's defense should smother a Morehead St. team which ranks 320th in turnover percentage, and its offense should take advantage of a Morehead club that ranks 296th in giving up 3-pointers. Take Louisville.
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over Penn St. Both teams have similar profiles, but Temple has a slight edge on defense, while PSU's edge is on the offensive side of the ball. The Owls come into this game off a 58-53 loss to Richmond in the Atlantic 10 championship game, but won its previous four games (and 12 of 13) before that defeat. And since 1992, .679 (or better) teams off a loss are 65-31 ATS in the first round of the tournament, if they failed to cover the spread by more than 5 points in their previous game, but won and covered two games back, and are priced from +1.5 to -10 points in the current game. But that's not the best part: If our 'play-on' team (here, Temple) lost a close game by six points or less its last time out, then our 65-31 angle zooms to 24-2 ATS including a perfect 15-0 ATS its last 15. Take Temple.
At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the Princeton Tigers plus the points over Kentucky. The Wildcats come into this game off big wins over Florida and Alabama last weekend, but fall into a negative 9-36 ATS system of mine which fades certain favorites off back to back SU/ATS Wins. And since head coach Sydney Johnson took over the Princeton program, the Tigers are a solid 56-38 ATS including 36-19 ATS away from home, and 27-17 ATS as an underdog. Even better: Against foes with a W/L percentage greater than .600, Princeton moves to 17-6 ATS, including 5-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS Wins. Take the points.
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores over Richmond. Richmond is a great shooting team (46% overall; 40% from 3-point range), but that goes into one of Vanderbilt's strengths, which is defending the 3-point shot (Vandy ranks 8th in that regard, holding foes to 29% from long distance). The Spiders have won and covered seven straight, but teams off seven or more ATS wins are 12-35 ATS in tournaments vs. foes not off back to back wins. Take Vanderbilt. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss our 3-Game Package (we swept the board, going 3-0 on our last 3-Pack), or our #1 and #2 Plays of the Opening Round, which both go on this Thursday.
At 6:50 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Cal Santa Barbara. The Gators were the top seed in the SEC Tournament, but fell 70-54 in the Championship round to Kentucky. And one of the things I like to do is play on .680 (or better) teams in the opening round of the NCAA Tourney off a blowout loss to end their regular season. These teams have covered the spread 66% of the time since 1993, including 83% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins! Take Florida.
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Belmont. The Bruins have all the characteristics of a low-seeded team that is apt to pull an upset, but the problem with playing them here vs. Wisconsin is that there's not any value in the pointspread. The Badgers always have an efficient offense under coach Bo Ryan, and this year is no different, as Wisky ranks 2nd in the entire country in offensive efficiency (only Ohio St ranks higher), buoyed by the fact it commits just 7.5 turnovers per game (best mark in the country). The Badgers also shoot 82.4% from the free throw line (also tops in the country), so they will be tough to catch in the game's late stages, if they have a lead. Belmont has played just three games this year vs. good teams and, not surprisingly, is 0-3 in those games (it is 30-1 against crap teams). Belmont lost twice this year to Tennessee (85-76 on Nov. 16, and 66-65 on Dec. 23), and once to Vandy (85-76 on Dec. 4). Take Wisconsin.
At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats over Missouri. Cincy is ranked 16th in defensive efficiency, and I think the Bearcats could be one of the surprises in this tournament. In the rugged Big East, they finished on a 6-2 run, including two double-digit wins over Georgetown, and seven and nine-point wins over Marquette and Louisville, respectively. The Bearcats also are balanced (another trait I look for in this tourney), with just one glaring weakness, and that's free throw shooting (66.6%, 254th in country). But that's not a major cause for concern. Missouri was dreadful down the stretch in the Big 12, as it lost four of its final five games, including three by double digits). And in the Tigers' last 14 games (they went 7-7), they were an awful 0-5 vs. Tourney teams, with the average margin of defeat 11.8 ppg). Take Cincy.
DOUBLE DRAGON
BYU -9
BUCKNELL +10
BELMONT +5
MICHIGAN STATE -1.5
GONZAGA +1.5
UTAH STATE +2.5
Al DeMarco
10 Dime Kentucky
Jay McNeil
80 Dime Utah State
Chuck O'Brien
75 Dime Wisconsin
25 Dime Vanderbilt
Chris Jordan
500* Gonzaga +1.5
200* Cincinnati -1
BIG AL
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Bucknell Bison plus the points over UConn, as we will fade the Huskies off their improbable run to the Big East Championship. The Huskies were a #9 seed in their tournament, but teams who won their Conference Tourney as a #5 seed or worse, are a poor 33% ATS as favorites (or PK) in their first NCAA Tourney game. That's one reason to fade Connecticut here. But I also have 66-29, 83-39, 33-15 and 54-19 ATS systems which fade certain teams off upset wins (UConn was a 3-point dog vs. Louisville in the Big East final), as well as a 34-15 ATS system which plays on certain teams seeded 13 to 15 in the NCAA Tourney. These two teams couldn't be more different in terms of offensive balance. UConn primarily relies on Kemba Walker, a brilliant player, who averages over 23 ppg. No other Husky scores double digits. In contrast, Bucknell spreads its scoring around, as seven players average at least 7 ppg, with big man Mike Muscala tops at 14.8 ppg. The Bison are an efficient team, offensively, and rank 12th in FG percentage. UConn is just the opposite, and ranks 211th in the country in "Effective FG percentage." Even worse for UConn is that Bucknell is a strong defensive team, and ranks 16th in FG percentage defense. The Bison started the year 2-6, but have reeled off victories in 23 of their last 25 games. In this stretch was a win at Richmond on Jan. 2nd (the Spiders are in the NCAA Tourney), and a narrow 4-point loss at Boston College, so Bucknell can definitely play with the elite schools. Finally, UConn has won 5 Big East Championships since 1991, and it is 0-5 ATS in the first round of the Tourney off those 5 victories, with the average pointspread failure by 6.3 ppg! Take Bucknell.
Texas Sports Wire
5* UCLA
4* Belmont
3* Princeton
3* Vanderbilt
3* Morehead St
3* Utah St
Bob Balfe
W Virginia -2
Old Dominion. -2
Temple -2.5
Florida -13
Wisconsin Over 126
Gonzaga +2
RAS
Florida Over 127.5
UCLA Over 126.5
Dr Bob
2* UCLA (+2) over Michigan State
Michigan State is just 12-20 ATS and the Spartans continue to get support from the public despite their consistent failure. My ratings picked this game even (with a total of 120 points) and the line went from pick to Michigan State by 1 ½ points – so it appears as if the Spartans are still overrated. Michigan State is just 6-13 straight up against NCAA caliber teams (that includes a win over Minnesota when the Gophers had PG Al Nolen) and the Spartans are just 3-6 straight up against teams with 3 points of UCLA’s rating. The Bruins, meanwhile, played 3 points better than their overall rating when they faced NCAA caliber teams, going 6-7 straight up against those teams and 5-4 straight up against teams within 3 points of Michigan State’s rating. UCLA applies to a 37-9 ATS round 1 situation and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and I’d take the Bruins in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 or more.
2* West Virginia (-1½) over Clemson
Clemson didn’t deserve the fate of having to play on Tuesday night, as my ratings rank the Tigers as the 27th best team in the nation (more like a 7 or 8 seed) and the committee didn’t do West Virginia any favors by slotting them against a very good #12 seed. The Mountaineers, however, apply to a very good 65-16-1 ATS round 1 situation that should propel them to a victory and coach Bobby Huggins is 80-49-4 ATS in his career when his team is coming off a loss (5-2-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament). It’s become evident that Clemson can compete with good teams, but the Tigers have trouble beating good teams – going just 2-8 straight up this season against NCAA caliber teams (i.e. not UAB but I included their win over Virginia Tech, who should have made the field). The 2 victories were both at home against teams that aren’t as good as West Virginia (Florida State and Virginia Tech) and the Mounties have wins over good teams Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Purdue, Cincy, Notre Dame, U Conn and Louisville (9-9 straight up against NCAA caliber teams). The Mountaineers are inconsistent, but they should be on an up cycle today given the good situation. My ratings favor West Virginia by 1½ points (total of 126 points) and I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.
2* Florida (-12½) over UC Santa Barbara
Florida’s bad loss to Kentucky in the SEC final should have the Gators motivated for a UCSB team that is not as good as they showed in winning the Big West tournament and their win over #1 seed Long Beach State in the finals was simply a case of positive variance (50% 3-point shooting while LB State was 4 of 17 on 3-pointers). Florida hasn’t performed well as a big favorite this season (1-7 ATS favored by 10 or more), but I doubt that the Gators will letdown for an NCAA Tournament game and they apply to a very good 26-4-1 ATS subset of a 113-45-5 ATS round 1 situation. UCSB, meanwhile, applies to a negative 15-43-1 ATS letdown situation and Florida’s negative team trend as a big favorite is offset by the Gauchos’ 8-20 ATS mark under coach Bob Williams after 3 or more consecutive wins, including 2-10 ATS against winning teams. Florida will certainly have good support with this game being played in Tampa and my ratings favor Florida by 12½ points (with a total of 129 points) – so the line is fair. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less.
3* Vanderbilt (-2) over Richmond
Richmond enters this tournament on a roll, having won and covered 7 consecutive games, but the Spiders apply to a very negative 28-92-2 ATS NCAA tournament situation that is 1-24 ATS more recently. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, applies to a 113-45-5 ATS situation and the record is a perfect 14-0 ATS when the two angles apply to the same game. Richmond does have a very good record as an underdog (45-15 ATS), but the Spiders are just 2-6 out of that when they have won and covered the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Richmond did beat Purdue earlier in the season and Temple in the Atlantic 10 tourney, but the Spiders also lost to Old Dominion, Temple and Xavier by an average of 17 points and their rating against good teams is exactly the same as their overall rating. Vanderbilt has proven that they can beat good teams (North Carolina, Marquette, Kentucky) and my ratings using all games favor Vanderbilt by 2½ points (with a total of 138½ points) while my ratings based on games only against other good teams favors the Commodores by 3 points. The line is certainly fair and the situation is very strongly in favor of the Commodores. I’ll take Vanderbilt in a 3-Star Best Bet at-3 or less and for 2-Stars at -3½ points.
3* BYU (-8) over Wofford
BYU applies to a very good 113-45-5 ATS round 1 situation while Wofford applies to a very negative 29-92-2 ATS letdown situation that is 1-24 ATS more recently. The record is 14-0 ATS when both angles apply to the same game so the technical analysis strongly favors BYU. The question is how good BYU is without big man Brandon Davies, who was kicked off the team for a violation of the school’s honor code. Davies averaged 11.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and was a good defender and the Cougars clearly haven’t played as well without him, going just 3-2 straight up and 2-3 ATS in 5 games without Davies. Looking at my advanced metrics, the difference has been on defense, as BYU’s compensated defensive efficiency in those 5 games is 0.120 points per possession higher than their season average, which translates into about 8 points in an average paced game. However, part of that difference is purely variance, as BYU’s opponent’s managed to make 41 of 93 3-point shots in those 5 games, which is 10.9 more than those mostly poor outside shooting teams would be expected to make (the should have made 32.4% and they made 44.1%). A difference of 1 3-point shot is worth 2.7 points (not 3 points because some of the misses turn into offensive rebounds that are converted into points), so a difference of 10.9 3-pointers is worth 29.43 points, or 5.9 points per game. The average pace of those 5 games was 68.9 possessions, so that 5.9 points per game in 3-point shooting variance turns into 0.085 points per possession. So, 0.085 of BYU’s 0.120 rise in their compensated defensive efficiency was just random variance while just 0.035 is likely the real impact of Davies’ absence on defense. That’s still 2.5 points per game, which is a lot of points for one player. My calculations suggest that the loss of Davies has very little impact on the offense, so overall I calculate that BYU is 2.5 points worse than their season rating without Davies. BYU would be favored by 12.5 points in this game based on the season ratings of these teams, so I get BYU by 10 points without Davies (and a total of 150 points). It appears as if the line has been over-adjusted for BYU’s recent poor play (some of which was simply random) and the Cougars are worth a bet based on the situation even if 8 points is indeed a fair line. BYU is also used to playing at high altitude (this game is in Denver) while Wofford may struggle with the thin air. I’ll take BYU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -10 points.
3* Wisconsin (-4½) over Belmont
A lot of people are calling for Belmont to upset the Badgers, but Belmont’s impressive computer rating was built up by beating up on horrible teams in their horrible conference (they won by an average of 21 points in conference games). Belmont is a good team but their average rating against the 3 good teams that they faced is much lower than their overall rating. The Bruins played at Tennessee twice, losing by an average of 5 points and they lost at Vanderbilt by 9 points. Those certainly aren’t horrible performances, but losing by an average of 6.3 points in those 3 road games is the same as losing by 7.5 points on a neutral floor to a team with Wisconsin’s rating. Using a strictly point margin model would have Belmont rated 18th or 19th in the nation, but my ratings have a diminishing returns factor built in that dampens the value of blowout wins against bad teams and gives more value to performances against better teams. My ratings rate Belmont as the 36th best team in the nation. Wisconsin’s overall rating based on pure point differentials puts the Badgers at #14 in the nation, but the Badgers have fewer possessions to run up big margins against lesser teams since they play at such a slow pace (9 fewer possessions per game per team than the national average). If Wisconsin played at an average pace then their overall rating would be 1.6 points higher. My ratings have the Badgers at #9 in the nation and I favor them by 6 points in this game (with a total of 133½ points), which is what the line opened at. Most computer models that aren’t pace adjusted and that don’t have a diminishing returns factor built in would have Wisconsin by only 3 points, which is why the line has come down. But, those models are not as good as my model and 6 points is the fair line (and the odds makers agree with me). Belmont is an up-tempo team that gets a lot of easy buckets from forcing turnovers (they force 19 per game), but I don’t see them having any luck forcing turnovers against a Badgers’ team that led the nation in fewest turnover per game at just 7. Wisconsin has played 15 consecutive games with single digit turnovers, so I just don’t see Belmont forcing many turnovers. The Bruins should have some open looks beyond the 3-point line, which is my only concern, as Wisconsin allows 37.5% from beyond the 3-point arc while Belmont takes 25 3-pointers per game at a 38.1% success rate. Belmont will probably make more 3-pointers than normal, but they won’t get as many easy baskets off turnovers, so the match-up looks like a wash and my ratings show the Badgers with 1½ points of line value at -4½ points. Wisconsin also applies to a very good 24-2 ATS subset of a 79-27-3 ATS round 1 situation and I’ll take Wisconsin in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -6 points.
Joseph D'Amico
Utah State vs. Kansas State
Play: Utah State +2½
Sure Kansas State has gotten some headlines. After all, the Wildcats boasted wins over both Kansas and Texas. But this is a team that makes some truly fatal errors. TO’s, foul problems, and FT issues are just a few of the fatal flaws that have haunted the team this year. They have problems playing at neutral sites with a 1-4 SU record. They also seem to self-destruct when the game is on the line. Guards Jacob Pullen and Rodney McGruder run the backcourt well and combine for 30.9 PPG. But the issue is with their frontcourt. Forwards Kelly and Samuels have had their setbacks against inferior foes. Now they must face Tai Wesley and Brady Jardine. The duo is thunderous on the glass (15.1 RPG combined) and has evolved into the teams “go-to” guys. Utah State can run and gun as well as slow the tempo down, depending on the situation. The Aggies are smart and athletic. Guards Pane, Green, and Williams (33.6 PPG combined) are a deadly trio. Having all 3 makes it very difficult for any defense to key on any one or two of them. This is a “sleeper” team than can and will surprise big here. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS their L5 non conference games, 14-6 ATS their L20 neutral site games, and 11-4 ATS their L15 games as a ‘dog. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS their L4 non conference games, 0-4 ATS their L4 neutral site games, and 6-13 ATS their L19 games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Utah State.