Keith Glantz
100* Louisville
100* St Johns
25* Temple
25* Richmond
25* Utah St.
LPW Sports Forecast
5 Units Cleveland/Portland Over 195.5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* PITTSBURGH over UNC-ASHEVILLE
We are not sure that a team has ever been thrown a more awkward first-round setting than out-manned UNC-Asheville faces here – not only are the Bulldogs in a most difficult turnaround after not even getting to Washington until around 3 AM on Wednesday morning, but they go up against one of the best teams in the field, an experienced, deep and talented team that brings them huge matchup headaches. And while there may be some carry-over adrenaline from Tuesday’s rally to beat Arkansas-Little Rock, that comes to a crashing halt once these realities set in. With the morning markets helping us by actually lowering this a bit, opening up -18 as a “win” number in many key precincts, we are ready to go.
The problem with the Asheville win on Tuesday night is two-fold. Naturally it is physically draining, with Matt Dickey going 43 minutes, JP Primm 41 and John Williams 40, but it also makes it psychologically easier to pack it in here if things go badly – there is that degree of satisfaction that a team gets from having recorded a tourney win. That comes into play more readily against a team that plays as physically hard, and as fundamentally sound, as this afternoon’s opponent, with the Panthers bringing the physical freshness to deliver a KO punch.
In the long run, getting that early exit from the Big East tournament may prove to be a blessing for Jamie Dixon and his team going forward. And it was not as though there was anything wrong with their showing – they ran into a Connecticut team that played at a very high level. Now they come in fresh and focused, and their ability to grind away through two key areas – rating #6 in the nation in assist to TO ratio, and #2 in rebounding margin, establishes complete dominance early here, not giving Asheville any breathing room. With the underdog in a most fragile state in terms of trying to creep in through the back door, this margin only increases through the latter stages.
KELSO
50 Units Old Dominion
5 Units Louisville
5 Units Kentucky
5 Units Pitt
5 Units Belmont
PPP
3 WVU
5 Princeton
3 FL
4 UCLA
5 Buck
3 Cincy
2 Pitt
3 But
4 Vandy
3 Lou
3 BYU
3 Gonz
2 SD ST
4 Temp
2 UT ST
2 Bel
Sean Michaels
100 Dime Temple
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - St Johns
Woffard
UCLA +2
Vanderbilt
ATS LOCK CLUB
6 Gonzaga +1.5
5 Old Dom -2
5 Missouri +1
4 Clemson +2.5
4 Florida -13
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Gonzaga
15 Dime Wisconsin
50 Dime Gonzaga
So much to love about Gonzaga in this game, starting with the fact that the Bulldogs come into the Tournament riding a nine-game winning streak (6-2 ATS in lined action), which is part of an 11-1 run that dates to January. St. John’s, on the other hand, followed up a six-game winning streak and an 8-1 run – which included impresaive wins over Duke, UConn, Pitt, Cincinnati, Marquette and Villanova – by splitting its last four games. The Red Storm sandwiched victories over South Florida (72-56 in the regular-season finale) and Rutgers (65-63 in the first round of the Big East tournament) between losses at Seton Hall (84-70) and to Syracuse in the second round the conference tourney (79-73).
Not only did the Johnnies lose the game to Syracuse, they also lost one of their most important players to a season-ending knee injury. D.J. Kennedy, a 6-foot-5 swingman, was the team’s top rebounder and third-leading scorer. Not only was it a huge loss for the Red Storm for the obvious reason, but first-year coach Steve Lavin relied almost exclusively on his starters (only six players averaged more than 15 minutes per game), so an already short bench just got a little shorter. Additionally, of the few Red Storm players who do get regular playing time, none are taller than 6-foot-7, so Lavin also lost one of his big men when he lost Kennedy.
Gonzaga, on the other hand, has three key contributors who go 6-foot-7 or taller, including 7-foot center Robert Sacre (who averages 13 points and six boards per game). Thus, the Bulldogs will have a huge matchup edge in this game down low, and because of their depth, they can play aggrescsive and not worry much about foul trouble.
Finally, Gonzaga coach Mark Few will likely use the fact his team is an underdog to motivate his players; for one thing, he can play the experience card, using a speech like: “This is our 13th year in the Tournament and we’re 9-3 in first-round games the last 12 years, while St. John’s hasn’t been in this thing since 2002 and hasn’t won a game since 2000 … and we’re the underdog!?!?” At the same time, because of all the hype they received after those big victories in February, the pressure is going to be on the Red Storm much more than the Bulldogs.
As for those who will back St. John’s simply because it came through the rugged Big East, well, I’d counter with the following: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Marquette, Illinois, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Xavier and Memphis. Those are the non-conference teams Gonzaga faced this season, not to mention three games against West Coast Conference rival and Tournament-worthy St. Mary’s … a team, by the way, that St. John’s lost to in its season opener 76-71.
Wrong team is favored in this game, guys. Gonzaga, with its size advantage, deeper bench and Tournament experience, runs its winning streak to 10 in a row and does so rather comfortably, 74-65.
15 Dime Wisconsin
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Belmont is this year’s Big Dance “Darling” – the one double-digit seed that every pundit on the planet is picking to advance. Well, you know how I operate: When the entire betting world is lined up on one side of a play – especially in a marquee situation like the Tournament – I run the other way. And I’m doing so here for a bevy of reasons:
Reason #1: Even though Belmont had an outstanding season, going 30-4 and winning its last 12 in a row, it didn’t beat anybody! The Bruins faced just two quality teams – instate rivals Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt – and while competitive in all three games, they also lost all three games.
Reason #2: Even though Wisconsin comes into the Tournament off two of its ugliest efforts of the season (93-65 loss at Ohio State and 36-33 – yes, 36-33 – loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament), this is still a team that went 13-6 in the tough Big Ten and is barely a month removed from impressive victories over top-ranked Ohio State and Top 10 Purdue.
Reason #3: Belmont is making just its third Tournament appearance EVER, and though it gave Duke a scare back in 2008 (losing 71-70), the school has never won on this stage. On the other hand, Wisconsin has gone dancing every year since 1999, and since 2002 the Badgers are 8-1 in first-round games, getting bounced only in 2006 (when they lost 94-75 to Arizona).
Reason #4: Much has been made this week about Belmont’s explosive offense (the Bruins average better than 80 points per game). But again I bring this up: They haven’t faced any quality competition, certainly none that can defend like Wisconsin, which gives up just 58.3 points per game.
Reason #5 (and the most important of all): One word – VALUE! When’s the last time you saw a #4 seed laying just 4½ points to a #13 seed? I certainly can’t recall it. This number tells me Vegas was well aware that the public would be all over Belmont in this game and those brilliant odhsmakers weren’t about to give an inch. Their message to the public: “If you want to bet Cinderella, you’re going to take it in the shorts with a bad pointspread.” And of course the idiot public continues to blindly hammer away on Belmont because some talking heads on TV and radio keep hyping up the Bruins.
Bottom line: As usual, novice bettors have a short memory and all they can see is Wisconsin’s ugly 36-33 loss to Penn State last week. But we know the Badgers are superior, they have more size, they have more experience and on top of all that, they’ll have a HUGE chip on their shoulder, knowing full well that 99 percent of the public thinks they’re going to lose to a #13 seed. It’s not happening, folks. Wisconsin’s defense controls this game and the Badgers win 65-55.
Jimmy Boyd
5* Wofford +8.5
4* Bucknell +10
4* Florida -13
Helmut
UCLA Over 127.5
Bucknell +10
Butler Over 122
Sam Paolini
20* Flyers
Chip Chirimbes
Belmont vs Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -4.5
If I hear one more 'expert' tell me how Belmont (30-4) is going to upset Wisconsin (21-12) I figure they should win it all because Wisconsin did beat Ohio State. The Badgers are coming off two horrible performances as they were blown out by the Buckeyes 93-65 and then scores just 33 points in a loss to Penn State. Wisconsin has the lowest turnover ratio in the nation and is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country.
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Bucknell +10
Billionaire - Utah St +2.5
No Limit - Gonzaga +1.5
Pinnacle - Wisconsin -5
Perfect Play - Princeton +13.5
Insider Info - BYU -8.5
EZWinners
Butler
Bucknell
Wofford
Utah St
St Johns