RAS
Texas-El Paso +3
Richmond -1.5
Tennessee -2.5
Northern Iowa +1.5
Steve Budin
25 Dime - UTEP
Marc Lawrence
UTEP +2.5
The Miners struck gold at season’s end, winning 16 of their last 17 games. However, despite their upset loss to Houston in the conference tourney, the Miners are making their first appearance in this event since 2005. Enter Butler, who is riding the nation’s longest win streak at 20. That suits UTEP just fine as the Miners are 4-1 ATS in their previous five tourney efforts, including a perfect 4-0 ATS versus a foe off a SU win. They’re also 24-3 SU this season versus sub .850 opposition. Despite the Bulldogs' gaudy numbers, Butler is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season, including 1-10 ATS off a SU and ATS win. This is also a classic No. 12 vs. a No. 5 seed matchup. With that our database reminds us may find us that No. 5’s are 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS when the No. 12 is off a SU and ATS loss, including 0-4 SU and ATS when the No. 5 is off a win. Add to that the fact that teams in the opening round of this event that lost in a conference championship game are 11-0 SU and ATS when facing an opponent that won it's conference championship game the last six years and we have the making of another No. 12 seed pulling an upset. We recommend a 3-unit play on UTEP.
RATED PICKS
3 Units San Diego St +3.5
3 Units Butler -2.5
3 Units Notre Dame -2.5
Jeffersonsports
Notre Dame Under 121.5
Scott Delaney
40 Dime - Washington Huskies
Bob Valentino
30 Dime - Villanova
KIKI SPORTS
3* Butler
Larry Ness
10* Perfect Storm - Baylor -11
MR EAST
NCAAB THURSDAY UNDER THE RADAR
3 UNITS: BUTLER -2
Post-season tournaments leave a trail as to tendencies, and how they change from the regular season, and even post-season conference tournaments. Taking a snapshot of the trail they leave behind offers value in given areas, and a place and time to exploit these situations as they arise. I have years of data and have found many places where these situations can be taken advantage of and will post them as they arise. This game fits into that area. BUTLER gets the call.
AAA Sports
Vanderbilt -3
I am not going to bother you with stats for this contest because that is not what these games are all about. Stats are derived from different levels of competition and that level is much higher with the Commodores. They have already played 9 games this year verses teams that are Dancing while Murray State has played just one that made it here because of the season that they had. I am excluding Morgan State since they are here due to a Tourney win but regardless of that, they lost to them anyway just a while back. Murray State has a fine tradition of basketball. Make no mistake that I don't know that. They did play Cal very hard early in the year and covered a large spread losing by a few points. But how impressive is that? We all know how very down the Pac 10 Conference is this year right? Vandy finished the year at 1-2 last 3 games and that left a bad taste in the mouths of bettors. But Motivation was not there and will be Thursday. However, that Taste, or lack of it has driven this line down from an opening of -4.5 and it is now time to jump. Vandy has outstanding guard play, they take care of the ball, and they hit their free throws. These are important things in Tourney Play. Yes, the SEC is not so spiffy. But are they better than the Ohio Valley Conference? Uh....yep. I suspect this betting line will go back the other way but right now great value with -3. Take Vanderbilt.
Craig Davis
30 Dime – SAN DIEGO STATE
15 Dime – NORTHERN IOWA
10 Dime – WASHINGTON
SAN DIEGO STATE - I am absolutely not falling for this trap line and neither should you. This line BEGS you to take Tennessee, doesn't it? I mean, think about it... here we have a well-known team from the SEC against a bunch of "nobodies" from the Mountain West Conference, and I've actually heard a few people say that if San Diego State didn't get their "miracle" win against UNLV they wouldn't even be in this tournament. Really? Maybe they're right... shoot, I hope they are. If that's the case, that means this line is even more screwed up than I originally thought. A 6-seed giving three or four points to an 11-seed is a joke, especially when the 11-seed has to travel all the way across the country for a night game. Either Vegas really screwed up here or they are just waiting to cash in on all the fools who bet Tennessee.
Honestly, has there been a more erratic team in college hoops this year than the Vols? The same team that beat Kansas and Kentucky also lost to Florida, Vanderbilt (twice), Georgia, and USC. And I'm not sure I understand the notion that the SEC is some power conference... remember, this isn't football, this is basketball. The SEC was no better than the Mountain West this year and it will be interesting to see how these two conferences fare when all is said and done.
San Diego State, on the other hand, has been one of the hotter teams to close out the season, dropping just one of their last 10 games, beating UNLV twice and New Mexico once along the way. After a two-point loss to lowly Wyoming and a 10-point loss at UNLV, the team had a players-only meeting to challenge each other, and from that January 13th meeting till today, the Aztecs have lost just three times (vs. BYU, at New Mexico, and at BYU again). This team is built on team defense and dominating the boards, and although Tennessee probably has the advantage at the guard spot, it's not a huge advantage like San Diego State will have inside.
In San Diego State's last win over UNLV, Kawhi Leonard had 16 points and 21 rebounds as the Aztecs won the battle of the boards 36-24. In fact, it's a rare occurrence when the Aztecs DON'T win the rebounding battle... and I have a feeling it's going to be the same today.
As a dog of between 1 and 4.5 points the Aztecs are a salty 4-1 ATS and 10-7 ATS in 17 games away from home. Tennessee is just 7-9-1 ATS away from Knoxville and 6-10-1 ATS in night games. I'm sorry, but I just don't believe in this year's Tennessee team with all the issues they've had to deal with. Great season for coach Pearl, but I think it ends tonight.
NORTHERN IOWA - Tend to side with the better defensive team when the line is a basic pick 'em. This selection has nothing to do with UNLV or the fact they ended the season on the sour note by scoring 45 points in the MWC tournament. This selection is because I believe in Northern Iowa, I believe in their defensive toughness and I believe in C Jordan Edsleger. The Rebels have but one real advantage in this game... speed and quickness. If this game becomes a track meet I believe UNLV could win by 10 or more. But I don't believe for a second the Panthers will allow the Rebels to dictate the tempo. In at least 90% of their games the Panthers dictated the very "boring" pace which led to a lot of 58-54 type games. And if you consider this team hits around 75% of their free throws, it won't matter if they are hitting open jumpers or drawing fouls by penetrating to the cup, Northern Iowa is going to score. UNLV will do everything they can to quicken the pace, but when UNI imposes its will on you, it's nearly impossible to make them run with you. I believe Northern Iowa is the real deal and could cause problems not only today but for the rest of the tournament, depending on how far they go.
WASHINGTON - With only two teams from this conference in the tournament, you'd expect both of them to play their very best in every game to represent. Although the Pac 10 gets a lot of criticism for being a very "average" conference, I still believe both Cal and Washington are quality teams that can make some noise against a few teams that might take them for granted. Today is a perfect example. Marquette played a very tough Big East schedule and finished with a winning record while Washington struggled to get above .500 and lost several games they should have won. But when you match two teams that have equal talent, can both shoot the 3 well, and don't play a ton of defense, not to mention the fact you have a lot more size on one side than the other, you can't help but lean one way. Washington is on a seven-game winning streak and they're doing it by getting production from their guards, pounding the boards and getting timely scoring inside, and hitting their free throws. Nothing against Marquette, but I think they're catching Washington at the wrong time.
Lenny Stevens
20* Murray St
20* Washington
10* San Diego St
10* N. Iowa
Trace Adams
2000* Washington
KELSO
10 Units Vanderbilt -3
3 Units Villanova -18.5
3 Units Baylor -11
Evening Games Later.