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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, March 18,2010

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Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
BYU (-4 1/2) over Florida
I'll take BYU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 points.

2 Star Selection
Notre Dame (-2) over Old Dominion
I'll take Notre Dame in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or better (strong opinion at -2 1/2 or -3).

2 Star Selection
Wake Forest (+5) over Texas
I'll take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.

Opinion

Tennessee (-3 1/2) vs San Diego State

San Diego State applies to a negative 7-31 ATS situation that is based on their winning of the tough Mountain West Conference while Tennessee applies to a 49-11 ATS situation and a 20-3 ATS first round situation that is based on their poor performance in the SEC tournament. Unfortunately, I can't justify the Volunteers being favored by 3 points in this game. Tennessee hasn't been as good since kicking star Tyler Smith off the team even though they've occasionally risen to the challenge in big games (upset wins over Kansas and Kentucky). Aside from their upsets of two #1 seeds the Vols have been nothing special. In 21 games without Smith the Vols have outscored their opponents by an average of 3.1 points per game against a schedule of teams that is 2 1/2 points worse than San Diego State's rating, so favoring Tennessee by 3 1/2 points makes no sense. San Diego State performed pretty well against good teams this season, with an average scoring margin of just -2.0 points in 10 games against NCAA tournament caliber teams (St. Mary's, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV and Arizona State), who combine for an average schedule rating that is 1.7 points tougher than Tennessee's rating without Smith. The Aztecs lost only 3 of those 10 games against good competition by more than 3 points and the line on this game should be pick, as these teams rate the same in my current ratings. Once again, the line value and the situations are favoring opposite sides and I'll pass.

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:31 am
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Jeff Benton

20 Dime - Notre Dame

10 Dime - Villanova

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:32 am
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Sports Unlimited

7* Richmond

5* Old Dominion

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:34 am
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Gold Sheet

Richmond

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:34 am
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National Sports Service

5* E. Tenn/Kentucky Over 135

4* Tennessee -3.5

3* Murray St. +3.5

3* Sam Houston St. +10.5

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:37 am
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Seabass

200* Wash
100* Old Dom
100* Florida
100* Baylor
50* Nova Und
50* Tenn
50* Texas
50* UNLV
30* St Marys
30* Murray St

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:38 am
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David Malinsky

5* Notre Dame -2.5

4* Marquette -1

4* Texas/Wake Forest Under 147.5

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:48 am
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Great Lakes

GOY Montana
4* Tenn
4* Wash
3* Murray St
3* UTEP

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:49 am
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Trey Scott

*500 Tennessee -3
*300 BYU -5
*200 Richmond -2
*200 Florida State -2
*200 Minnesota -1
*200 Louisville +1

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:50 am
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Executive

250% Florida +5.5

250% Old Dominion +3

250% Murray St +3

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:55 am
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Helmut

Notre Dame Under 120.5

Kansas Over 145.5

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:56 am
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Dave Cokin

Wake Forest vs Texas
Pick: Texas -5

It's been a rough ride down the homestretch for both Wake Forest and Texas. I'm not all that surprised to see the Demon Deacons struggling, as I was never especially high on them to begin with. Texas has all kinds of talent, but for whatever reason, Rick Barnes has been unable to settle on the best rotation for the Longhorns. No question that laying anything with Texas is a bit dicey considering their second half woes. But this is still a team capable of suddenly getting hit, and I believe they're worth backing for at least the one game against an even shakier opponent. I'm giving the points with Texas.

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 10:58 am
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GREGG PRICE

10* Old Dom
10* Wash
5* BYU
5* San Diego State
4* Murray State

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 11:16 am
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O.C. Dooley

2 Units Murray State +3

These two schools are only a couple of hours drive apart yet today marks the first meeting in almost exactly TWENTY YEARS. These two programs have only faced each other 4 times and three of those tilts were played out way back in the 1930’s and 1940’s so this is a very rare opportunity for Murray State to make a statement up against a geographic rival. The last time Vanderbilt made the NCAA Tournament was two years ago when they were upset in the opening round as a #4 seed which is exactly the same seed they have been given this time around. Not only does Murray State have 30 victories on the season, they are the ONLY conference champion from across the country to lead their league in both scoring offense-and-defense which tells you they can perform on both ends of the floor. There are very few Division I teams as balanced as Murray State who have SIX different players averaging “double digits”. Among those 6 players nobody is averaging more than 12 points per contest which tells me the Racers share the basketball. As a team Murray State is shooting better than 50% from the field after producing easy shots via steals which lead to “fast break” opportunities in transition. In a pair of Ohio Valley Conference tournament triumphs the Murray State defense gave up only 51 points in each of those contests. In the past three years Vanderbilt is a poor 2-12 ATS versus good shooting teams that on average make 48+% of their shot attempts. As for Murray State they are a spectacular 15-4 ATS/ROAD dating back to 1997 when off consecutive low scoring affairs that stayed below the posted total

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 11:23 am
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Trent Citron

10 Units Robert Morris
10 Units Notre Dame
8 Units Kentucky
6 Units BYU
6 Units San Diego State
4 Units Murray State

 
Posted : March 18, 2010 11:27 am
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