Larry Ness
10* Sweet 16 Total GOY - Butler/Wisconsin Under
10* Las Vegas Insider - Florida
9* Late-Breaking Sweet 16 - Duke
Ben Burns
9* Jazz Over
I'm playing on New Orleans and Utah to finish OVER the total. These teams have seen both this season's meetings finish below the total. With the Jazz off a game at Oklahoma City last night, I expect a higher-scoring affair this evening.
The Jazz are giving up points in large bunches. Last night, they gave up 106 at Oklahoma City and that was the 7th straight game that they allowed their opponent to reach triple-digits in scoring. Looking back further and we find that 11 of Utah's last 12 opponents scored in triple-digits.
Playing their second game in two nights (and fourth in the last five) isn't likely to improve Utah's defensive woes. The Jazz gave up 103 points at Memphis on 3/21, the last time that they played the second of back to back games. While that one managed to stay below the total, the OVER remains a profitable 33-24-1 the past few seasons, when the Jazz have played the second of back to back games, including 11-7 this season.
While last night's game did manage to stay below the total, it still produced 200 combined points. Including that result, the OVER is still a healthy 9-4 their last 13 games.
The Jazz, who are small underdogs here, have also seen the OVER go 19-11 when they've been "getting points." Going back further and we find the OVER at 55-31-1 the past few seasons, when the Jazz have been in the underdog role.
The earlier meeting (between these teams) here stayed below the total, but still produced 192 points - enough to finish above tonight's lower O/U line. Looking back further and we find that five of the Hornets' last six visits to Utah have produced a minimum of 190 combined points. I expect the teams to combine for more than that tonight.
Larry Ness
9* Late-Breaking Sweet 16 - Duke
Kyrie Irving was lost to a toe injury in Duke's 82-70 win over Butler back on Dec 4. The freshman PG missed the next 26 games but returned last weekend to play 20 and 21 minutes, contributing 25 points. Duke looked to be the nation's best team with a 100 percent healthy Irving and even without him for 26 consecutive games, won the ACC tourney title and grabbed one of four, No. 1 seeds. Irving (16.4-3.7-4.4) won't start but here's what Coach K has said recently. "He played significant minutes last week when I thought he was going to play limited minutes, so I mentioned that he will play significant minutes tomorrow," Krzyzewski said. "I don't know what the hell that means. It means he's going to play great minutes hopefully." Along with ACC player of the year Nolan Smith (21.0-4.5-5.2) and last year's Final 4 most outstanding player, the 6-8 Singler (16.9-6.8), Duke owns quite a trio. Curry (9.2) has started alongside of Smith with Irving on the shelf and Dawkins (8.0) has been the first guard off the bench. The 6-10 Plumlee brothers start up front with Singler, with Mason (7.3-8.4) contributing more this year than Miles (4.8-4.9). However, last weekend Mason averaged 8.0-6.0 and Miles 6.0-8.0. The 6-11 Kelly (6.8-3.8) also contributed last weekend, averaging 8.5 and 3.5. Arizona missed last year's Big Dance for the first time since 1984 (25 straight trips) but bounced back by taking this year's Pac 10 regular season title and advancing to the Sweet 16 with a two-point win over Memphis and a controversial one-point win over Texas. The 6-8 Williams (19.1-8.2 on 60% shooting) is an NBA-talent but Arizona just doesn't have anyone special around him. One could argue that the total is greater than the sum of its parts with this team, as the Wildcats average a healthy 80.0 PPG. However, comparing guards Jones (9.5), Fogg (8.1) and Parrom (7.8) to Smith Curry, Dawkins plus now IRVING, is ludicrous. Outside of Williams, Arizona counters with the 6-6 Hill (8.0-4.6), the 6-7 Perry (6.4-4.3) and the 6-7 Horne (6.1-3.3) up front. Duke's had some notable Sweet 16 exits since 2000 (SIX times) and is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine Sweet 16 appearances in that span, but note that prior to the two-point win over Michigan, the Blue Devils had won by 10 oe more points in each of its previous nine wins (did suffer two losses in that span). In comparison, Arizona is 3-1 in its last four, winning by five points over USC, losing in OT to Washington and then beating Memphis and Texas by a combined three points. Sweet 16 favorites have gone 12-4 ATS the last two years and in this matchup, I expect that trend to continue. The Michigan win was Coach K's 900th, leaving him two wins shy of Bob Knight's all-time record. How about this for a prospective daily double? A win over Arizona and then another vs the winner of SDSU/UConn and Coach K ties Knight as the NCAA's winningest coach plus leads the Blue Devils to his 12th Final 4, matching John Wooden's record. Again, I'm getting ahead of myself. Tonight, lay the points!
Will Cover
Florida
Duke
Big Al
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Butler, as the Bulldogs fall into a negative 2-23 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play against an 8th-seeded (or worse) team off back-to-back upset wins, and 4+ wins overall, if they're an underdog of 11 or less points. With #8 seed Butler in off back to back wins over Old Dominion and Pitt, we'll fade the Bulldogs here on Thursday. Take Wisconsin.
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over BYU, as the Gators fall into 56-39 and 113-65 ATS systems of mine. And Florida also catches the Cougars in several of their worst pointspead roles: BYU is 33-66-1 ATS as an underdog, including 8-30 ATS off a SU/ATS win; 2-14 ATS off a pointspread win since March 2010; and 0-6 ATS in a Tourney game off a pointspread win since 2007. Meanwhile, Florida is 41-24 ATS in Tourney games as a favorite, including 20-5 ATS its last 25 when favored by 9 or less. Lay it.