Billy Coleman
4* Atl -7.5
3* Mia +1
3* OKC +6.5
3* Tor -1.5 +150
3* Arz -140
3* Pitt -140
3* Phx/Det Under 5
Savannah Sports
3* NY Yankees -1.5
1* Atlanta -159
1* Miami +1
Jeff Benton
Tuesday's Action 60 Dime selection for Tuesday on the Oklahoma City Thunder plus the points at L.A versus the Lakers. in Game 2 of their best of 7 opening-rouad series. As I post this play live at approximately 11:45 AM Eastersn, the Thunder are getting a solid 6 1/2 poines in Las Vegas and up to 7 points offshore.
Thunder
The L.A. Lakers are going to live to regret not stepping on the Thunder’s collective throat when they had the chance on Sunday. Go back to Game 1: Los Angeles jumped out to a 27-13 lead after one quarter and then ran that to a 17-point advantage early in the second quarter. But instead of keeping their foot on the gas and squashing their young opponent’s confidance, they allowed Oklahoma City to hang around the rest of the way. And even though the Lakers never lost the lead, the fact the Thunder got off to a slow start and saw their best player struggle with his shot all day and yet still kept it competitive the entire second half was almost like a win for Oklahoma City.
No question, after the way Game 1 went down, the Thunder know they can compete with the Lakers. And I don’t care how good of a defender Artest is (and he’s good), there’s no way Kevin Durant is going to stink up the joint as bad as he did in Game 1. Durant, the NBA’s regular-season scoring champ, will have his playoff coming-out party tonight, I’m absolutely certain of that.
Back to the Lakers. You may or may not recall that last year, prior to the NBA Finals, they had issues with game-to-game consistsency in the postseason. For instance, in their first 16 playoff games last year, they went 7-9 ATS, and during that stretch they cashed in consecutive postseason contests just once.
Consistency has been a big problem for Los Angeles in recent weeks, too. Going back to the All-Star break, the Lakers are just 9-19-1 ATS, and not once during this span have they posted back-to-back ATS wins. More to the point, you have to go back more than two months for the last time L.A. won two straight games by a comfortable margin (at least eight points).
As for the Thunder, it’s true that they’ve hit a bit of a wall at the worst possible time, losing five of seven games since April 6. But look how competitive Oklahoma City was in those five defeaes: one-point overtime road loss to the Jazz (and they got hosed by the refs at the end of that one); four-point home loss to the Nuggets; three-point road loss to the Warriors; eight-point road loss to Portland; eight-point road loss to the Lakers. In fact, Oklahoma City has been blown out just once (121-101 loss at Indiana) since March 3, and its last seven losses were by an average of 4.6 ppg.
Also, while the Lakers have covered in consecutive games just once in their last 29 outings, the Thunder have failed to cash in consecutive games just six times this entire season! In fact, going back to last season, Oklahoma City is an incredible 42-17 ATS in its last 59 games when coming off a non-cover, while the Lakers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine after an ATS win. Furthermore, the Thunder are on pointspread runs of 13-6 as a road underdog, 8-2 as an underdog of five to 10½ points (all on the road), and 47-21 after a SU loss, while L.A. is on ATS slides of 3-9-1 at home, 7-16-1 as a favorite and 0-5 when coming off a SU victory.
Finally, I told you guys in this space yesterday that it was only a matter of time before underdogs (and road teams) started to break through from a pointspread perspective in these playoffs. And sure enough, the Bulls and Jazz proved me right (with Utah winning outright, just like I told you they’d likely do).
Do I see Oklahoma City securing a similar outright upset here? I’ll say this: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it happened, because Durant is going to be supremely motivated to make amends for a shaky Game 1 performance. But we don’t need the Thunder to pull off the shocker. They just have to keep it close, and they’ll do just that from start to finish. Grab the points and watch this one come down to the final possession
Ben Burns
Atlanta Under 187
Boston Over 179
Phoenix -8.5
Toronto
Dbacks
San Jose
Larry Ness
Lakers
Suns
Suns Over
Mariners
White Sox
Dbacks
Power Play Wins
Milwaukee Brewers -115
SCOTT RICKENBACH
10* (TOP PLAY) Miami Heat (+) @ Boston
Of course the fact that Kevin Garnett is out is huge in terms of tonight’s game. However, this plays is about much more than just that. Let’s not forget that the Heat were up 14 points in the third quarter of Game One before they fell apart. Give credit to Boston for the huge comeback win but Miami also knows they did themselves in by getting away from what had worked up to that point and then not making the proper adjustments to “stop the bleeding” when the Celtics went on their huge run. Of course emotions will be running high after the Garnett incident that involved his elbow and a Heat player and so Miami has revenge on their minds here for more reasons than one. Also, in addition to Garnett being suspended for tonight’s game, we do feel that Paul Pierce (though listed as probable for this game) is going to be bothered by his shoulder injury.
The Heat were done in poor shooting from the field in Game One but we don’t expect a repeat here…especially with Boston missing the defensive tenacity of Garnett. Note that Miami made just 39.7% of their field goals on Saturday but their three prior visits to Boston had featured field goal percentages of 52.1%, 47%, and 47.8%. Garnett’s absence also hurts the offense of Boston as well as they use him effectively both with the ball and without the ball in their offensive sets. It’s not just about the points he scores, it’s also about the opportunities he creates for his teammates. Keep in mind, the Celtics were on a 4-9 ATS skid before covering Saturday’s game. Conversely, the Heat were on a 12-1 run straight-up before losing Game One. With this line currently a +1 for Miami, any straight up win is, of course, an ATS win, and we look for a huge response from the Heat here. The Heat are 8-3 ATS as a road dog of three points or less while Boston is just 1-5 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in their prior game. That’s a combined 13-4 ATS edge for Miami in this match-up and, as you can tell from the info above, there is plenty to like about the Heat in this one. Play Miami plus the points as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* (Regular Play) Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) vs. Pittsburgh
Off a disappointing home loss to the Penguins on Sunday, look for the Senators to bounce back here. Ottawa is 20-10 this season in home games with a total of 5.5 while the Penguins are just 12-14 road games with a total of 5.5 posted. Also, the Senators are still on a 10-5 run against teams with a winning record and Ottawa does have solid defensemen that did a great job against the Penguins stars early in this series. Now, with their backs against the wall, we fully expect the Senators to play their “game of the year” on Tuesday. They can ill afford a 3-1 hole in the series with the Pens still having two home games left in the series. The Penguins are on a 6-10 run against teams with a winning record and we’re not sure the “hunger” is all the way back after winning the Cup last season. Yes, Pittsburgh has battled back from an 0-1 deficit to take a 2-1 series lead but will they be able to keep the hunger necessary to overcome a Sens team with very capable defensemen that are looking to shut them out and even up the series in what is essentially a “must win” game for the Senators? We do not believe that is the case and we see great line value with the Senators as a home dog here. Keep in mind, the Sens had won 10 of their last 14 games before coming up short on Sunday. They will battle back here as the defending Stanley Cup Champs are getting a little too much respect from the betting markets here. Look for Ottawa coach Cory Clouston’s personnel changes for tonight’s game to spark a huge effort from the Senators. Play Ottawa on the money line as an *8* Regular Play selection
10* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Minnesota vs. Cleveland
This total is a great value for over players as both pitchers have some respectable numbers that are keeping this total lower than it should be. That is because when one digs a little deeper and finds some of the most important factors here one can see why each team is likely to pound the ball in this one. First off, it’s going to be a very mild afternoon in Minneapolis today which means temperatures will be quite favorable for an evening game in Minnesota in mid-April. The ball continues to carry very well at this park and it’s proven to be kind to hitters for both the Twins and their opposition. While Cleveland has been an “under team” so far this season, Minnesota has gone over the total in three straight home games and the Twins are averaging 7.25 runs per game in their last four home games. Also, Minnesota is averaging nearly 10 hits per game this season. The only reason their scores haven’t been even higher recently is that they’ve left at least ten men on base in five of their last six games. They should enjoy plenty of success against Justin Masterson of the Indians here. Masterson shows some impressive numbers early this season with a 2.45 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11 innings. However, his domination has come against right-handed hitters and the Twins roster is loaded with left-handed sticks and switch-hitters. Masterson has no strikeouts this season against lefties and they have hit him hard and that has been the case throughout his career so this is no fluke. Masterson has been hit at .299 clip by left-handed sticks in his career and he has an ugly 1.77 WHIP against lefties. Also, he’s 1-10 on the road in his career with a 4.67 ERA.
Masterson is not the only one with concerns about this match-up in Minnesota’s new outdoor ballpark. The Twins Kevin Slowey had to be sad to see the Metrodome go. Throughout his career he’s been much better indoors than outdoors. Slowey went 10-3 in all starts last season and he has a 3.48 ERA so far this season so that is some of the positive statistical info that is keeping this total lower than it should be. The reason Slowey should get pounded here is he’s been hit at .293 clip this season, a .309 clip last season and yet the numbers (10-3 record last season and 3.48 ERA this season) conceal his true form. As for pitching outdoors in his career, he’s gone 10-11 with a 4.72 ERA and he’s been hit at a .301 clip! Also, his career data shows that his highest monthly BAA (.313 combined in his career) has come in April. Look for him to get rocked again here as the Indians are starting to pick up some steam with four straight wins and that includes scoring 5.3 runs per game in their last three games. We realize the Indians have not hit the ball all that well this season but they do have some dangerous sticks that are likely to give the very hittable Slowey some trouble in this one. The four game winning streak has the Indians bringing a newfound confidence to the plate and the Twins are looking to bounce back off of a 10-5 loss Sunday. Play OVER the total in Minnesota as a *10* Top Play selection.
Teddy Covers
Tigers/Angels Under 9
Heat/Celtics Over 180
Blazers +8.5
BIG AL
Roadkill - Twins
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Dodgers -134
1 Units Cubs -105
1 Units San Fran -119
KELSO
5 Units Blazers +8.5
3 Units Hawks/Celts UNDER 181.5
10 Units Thunder +6
10 Units Thunder/Lakers OVER 191.5
5 Unit Parlay Thunder and OVER 191.5
BIG AL
Roadkill - Twins
3* Atlanta Hawks
3* Phoenix Suns
3* LAL/Ok City Over
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Units Hawks -7.5
3 Units Lakers -6.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Minnesota -160
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Justin Masterson suffered a loss his last time out and I expect him to struggle again tonight; he allowed four runs on nine hits.
Although Masterson has a shown promise over his first two starts, and has pitched better than his record would indicate, he's still very unproven; last year he was 3-9 as a starter with a 4.72 ERA; 0-5 with a 5.81 ERA away from friendly confines.
In the other dugout: Kevin Slowey will look to bounce back today after a sub par outing; he gave up three runs and took the loss.
I believe Slowey will bounce back no problem though; he was 10-3 as a starter last year and was 8-0 at home with a 4.78 ERA; 9-1 in "night games" with a 4.54 ERA.
Slowey went 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA in two starts against the Indians last year.
Bottom line: Joe Mauer is on fire and has had plenty of success against Cleveland starters; he batted .536 - his highest average against any AL opponent - with 10 RBIs over 15 games, extending his hitting streak against the Indians to 18.
Cleveland has won four straight heading into this road trip and I believe will have a letdown tonight; play on MINNESOTA!
Tony George
Miami/Boston 179
Look for some scoring here. I like KG being out and opening up the paint for the Heat to get some cheap buckets. I also expect Miami to get it going on offense. I also expect the backcourt of Miami to step up in game 2 and for this to be the exact opposite in scoring than game 1, which happens often in the first round of the playoffs. Play 1 Unit on the OVER.