Don Wallace Sports
Boston -6
Ben Burns
10* NHL GOY - Penguins
DAVID MALINSKY
4* SACRAMENTO over SAN ANTONIO
We absolutely did not expect to see San Antonio money showing this morning for this setting, and now that 6.5’s are making their appearance it is time to get in the game. Yes, this is the kind of veteran team that can band together to make up for a key injury and get a ‘W’. But there is simply not enough there to be getting any kind of margin on the road, especially given some of the issues of this particular matchup.
George Hill has simply been terrific for San Antonio in making up for the absence of Tony Parker, and a case can be made that he is the flat-out better player of the two right now. But now the Spurs have to take the court without either of them, and they do it in an awkward setting, coming off of that major revenge win over the Lakers, and having a showdown at Phoenix tomorrow night. They have not had more than a day off since the middle of March, with this being the 13th game in 22 nights, and having faced six playoff-bound opponents on the road in that span, including the Lakers, Celtics and Magic, mustering the energy for a margin will be awfully difficult, especially with only one day to try to get a new rotation in order. From Gregg Popovich - “He's (Hill) the one that guards all the toughest opponents. He's been making shots. To lose him, it's going to be really tough.” And Manu Ginobli - ”I don’t even want to think about it, really.”
The difficulty here is that they not only have to find a way to run the offense with a diminished cast, especially with Roger Mason playing the last three games with a brace over his right hand (from Mason - ”You’re not going to hear me say it’s affecting my ball handling. But I have a torn ligament, you know?”), but they have to defend Tyreke Evans. And it is going to be a fresh and focused Evans. While the Spurs show up weary from this difficult stretch of schedule, the Kings are playing for only the second time in April, having been home the entire month, and there is only a home game vs. the Clippers on deck on Thursday. That means a lot of energy here, particularly from Evans, who needs 100 points over the final five games to finish with an average of 20.0 for the full season. Look for the underdog to actually play like they are the favorite, with Sacramento coming out as the aggressor, and there is an ample cushion being offered in a game that should go to the final possessions, with the Spurs in a most vulnerable situation.
MR EAST
NBA TUESDAY VALUE PLAY
BOSTON CELTICS @ NY KNICKS
3 UNITS: NY KNICKS +6
The Boston Celtics have blown 14 leads this season of 10 points or more, and they look to be a team of aging veternas that can no longer close the deal. That has left this team highly overrated, and the result has been 16-45 ATS in their last 61 games as a 5 point favorite or more. The Knicks are not a good team, but always seem to bring their "A" game vs the top teams, and the result has been a 21-9 ATS mark vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage in their last 30 going up against them. Celtics having trouble getting the money as a favorite, and I'll ride the Knicks here.
Jimmy Boyd
3* Toronto +7
Power Play Wins
Chicago Bulls -6
Matt Fargo
9* San Diego Padres +150
Early in the season, analysis is going to be very thin as the plays are going to be based on value for the most part. Betting baseball is about finding the value and finding the spots where teams have an advantage over the line and not necessarily over the other team. That may sound strange and against common betting theory but baseball is a completely different betting situation because of the moneyline aspect of it. The Padres had their anemic offense on display yesterday as they managed just two runs on five hits against the Diamondbacks. That came against Dan Haren however and tonight they take a step down in class to face Edwin Jackson. Jackson was once a top prospect but his career has been a roller coaster and while he did have a solid 2009 season, his second half was horrendous. This is his fifth team in eight seasons and while a move back to the National League should help, his spring numbers were less than stellar. Also he is just 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA in 15 career April starts. San Diego counters with Chris Young who had a miserable 2009 season but it was due to injury as the season was cut short in June. This came after three straight solid years for the Padres where he posted a 3.44 ERA covering 454.2 innings and a solid spring shows he may very well be back in his old form. In three starts against the Diamondbacks the last two seasons he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP covering 17 innings. 9* San Diego Padres
King Creole
2* ATL / CHL UNDER 183
2* MIL / CHI UNDER 189.5
1* DET / PHI UNDER 196
James Patrick Sports
5* Celtics
MTi Sports
4* Angels -115
Billy Coleman
3* Boston -6
3* Golden St -2
3* Milwaukee -140
Young Guns
4* Boston
3* San Antonio
3* Chicago
Larry Ness
10* Perfect Storm
Anaheim -130
Red Dog Sports
5* GOY - Bulls
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Tampa Bay (-190) over Baltimore
50* Play Milwaukee (-140) over Colorado
50* Play Arizona (-150) over San Diego
50* Play Florida (+120) over Ottawa