Great Lakes
5* Spurs
4* Thunder
3* Wizards
Chris Jordan
200♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: Jazz
10 Dime: RAYS -1.5
Jazz
Nobody loves the Oklahoma City Thunder as much as I do – not only have they been the NBA’s best story this year, but they’ve made their supporters a ton of cash (their 45-31 ATS mark ranks third in the league, and that includes a terrific 25-13 ATS road record).
However, this is an absolute must-win game for Utah, which is tied with Denver atop the Northwest Division standings, and both teams are just 1½ games ahead of Oklahoma City. The Jazz also need this game for their psyche, as they’ve lost all three previous meetings to the Thunder this season, including a 104-94 home loss back around Thanksgiving (the other two games were played in Oklahoma).
As good as the Thunder have been, the Jazz have been a little bit better in pretty much all facets. Not only is Utah’s overall record better, but the Jazz are actually better against the spread (47-27-3) than Oklahoma City. They’re also better at home (31-8 SU, 26-11-2 ATS) than the Thunder are on the road (23-15 SU, 25-13 ATS), and the Jazz average 104 ppg overall on 49.1 percent shooting, compared with Oklahoma City’s 100.9 ppg on 46.3 percent shooting.
Utah comes into this game on a nine-game home winning streak, and it has cashed eight of those nine victories. The average margin of victory in those nine wins: 16.7 ppg.
Finally, the Thunder are in a brutal scheduling spot. They went from Philadelphia (March 30) to Boston (March 31) to Dallas (Saturday), then came home to play the TWolves (Sunday). Now they face the Jazz in Utah tonight, go home to play the Nuggets tomorrow and the Suns on Friday, followed by a trip to Golden State (Sunday) and Portland (Monday). Add it up and that’s nine games in 14 days, with six of those nine games on the road and six of those nine games against playoff opponents. In fact, stretch it back to March 26, and Oklahoma City is in the midst of a stretch in which it is playing eight of 11 games against teams – Lakers, Blazers (twice), Celtics, Mavericks, Jazz, Nuggets and Suns – that will qualify for the postseason.
Bottom line: As noted above, the Jazz have to have this game. At the same time, because of the scheduling situation, this contest is going to test the mental capabilities of the young Thunder. And with another game against a divisional rival 24 hours away (back at home), I have to believe this is one of those late-season flat spots we always see in the NBA.
Rays (-1½ runs)
I actually think the Baltimore Orioles will be much-improved this season and will finally climb out of the A.L. East cellar. But I also believe Tampa Bay will return to its 2008 form – when it went to its first World Series – and challenge the Yankees and Red Sox for the division crown.
The Rays are absolutely loaded, with five All-Stars sprinkled through their balanced lineup and a bunch of young, strong arms both in the starting rotation and bullpen. And for the first time since I can remember, Tampa Bay has a bonafide closer in flame-thrower Rafael Soriano, who had a career-best 27 saves for the Braves last year. Soriano was easily the Rays’ biggest offseason acquisition, as the lack of a regular stopper at the back of the bullpen was the reason Tampa finished with only 84 wins last year.
Tonight, the Rays trot out veteran right-hander James Shields, who is far better than his numbers last year (11-12, 4.14 ERA) show. During the Rays’ World Series run in 2008, Shields was 14-8 with a 3.18 ERA, and he’s been the team’s workhorse the last three years, making 31, 33 and 33 starts. Shields has been way more dominant in his career at home (26-14, 3.38 ERA) than on the road (17-22, 4.76 ERA), and the same held true last year when his home ERA (3.75) was nearly a fun run lower than his road ERA (4.62).
Then again, Shields’ success at home just mirrors that of his team. Over the past two seasons, Tampa Bay is 109-53 at Tropicana Field, the second-best home record in baseball during this stretch. That includes a 16-5 record the last 21 times the Rays have hosted Baltimore. Overall, Tampa is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in this rivalry.
Shields himself has had his way with the O’s, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and a 70-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 starts. Finally, the Rays are 9-1 in Shields’ last 10 starts against the O’s, including 5-1 in the last six at home. And seven of Tampa’s last eight wins against Baltimore with Shields pitching have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact that Tampa’s potent lineup has feasted on Baltimore starter Kevin Millwood (6.18 ERA in five career start vs. the Rays), and this has all the makings of a multiple-run rout.
Savannah Sports
1* Arizona -140
Eric Degarde
2* Sacramento Over 193
2* NY Knicks Under 207.5
2* Memphis Under 212.5
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Knicks +7½
Rocketman
5* Montreal -130
Jimmy Boyd
5* Never Lost Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
The San Antonio Spurs were already playing without All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Now, they'll be playing without his replacement tonight. George Hill is expected to miss at least two games. He has averaged 15.8 points in 41 games as a starter this season. Now Manu Ginobli is really the only guy San Antonio has that can create for himself and others, and this has coach Popovich worried. "I'm a little worried about everything that's coming up now without George," coach Popovich said. "It's going to be difficult to ... have Manu (Ginobili) play the point in all these games coming up. We'll have to figure something out." It's likely they won't have that "something" figured out tonight. Plus, after a huge win over the Lakers to secure a playoff spot, this one has letdown written all over it. Kings Rookie of the Year candidate Tyreke Evans is coming off one of his worst performances, shooting just 2 of 12 and finishing with six points. Expect a big bounce back game from him tonight. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 88.5 to 96.8. The Kings have either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points in their last 5 home games against the Spurs. We'll take the points tonight.
3* MLB Smart Money Massacre on Mariners +120
We cashed in with the Mariners last night and they are showing some nice value again this evening in the underdog role. Ian Snell takes the hill for Seattle after owning the A's last season, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA against them. Dallas Braden is set to take the hill for the A's, but he has been a poor investment as a favorite. In fact, the Athletics are just 3-12 in Braden's last 15 starts as a home favorite. The Mariners are now 18-5 in the last 23 meetings in this series, and we'll take them again tonight.
4* Major NBA Motivational Mismatch on Jazz -5.5
I'll back the Jazz in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Utah is well rested, and it will be out for blood after enduring an embarrassing loss to the Lakers Friday night. Furthermore, the Jazz are 0-3 against the Thunder this season so they are going to want this one badly. Here's the key: Plays on home favorites in a triple revenge situation - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 75-36 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The team out for revenge is winning by 7.6 points on average in these spots so I think we are getting some decent value with this line. The Jazz are the best bounce back team in the NBA at 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Bet Utah tonight.
3* SMASH on Raptors +7
The Cavs have nothing to play for at this point with home court already locked up throughout the playoffs. Now, it's time to decrease the minutes of the starters to make sure they enter the playoffs fresh. This bodes well for the Raptors tonight as they will be extremely motivated to win with the Bulls right on their tail for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.
Mike Lineback
Oklahoma City +6
Oklahoma City matchup really well vs. Utah, as indicated by their three victories vs. the Jazz earlier this season. And the victories were no fluke. Now, the Thunder are playing their "best" basketball of season. OKC have won 6 of L7, including convincing victories over Mavs, Celtics & Lakers. As mentioned in Lakers win vs. Utah, the Jazz have been beating up on "cupcakes" lately, and struggle vs. top-tier competition. Utah have lost 4 of L5 big games vs. Lakers, Suns, Bucks, Thunder, with only win vs. Boston. This game has huge playoff implications, hence, no lack of motivation by either side. OKC have an outside shot at a Divisional title and the #2 seed in the West. Utah are battling four other teams,' including the Thunder for the same seeds. This game should go down to the wire. Take the points. Take Oklahoma City.
Marc Lawrence
Sacramento +6
The Kings host the Spurs in an ideal winning spot tonight with San Antonio checking in off an upset win over the Lakers in its last contest and Sacramento in off an 11-point loss. That sets the table for this game as the Spurs are just 1-9-1 ATS as road favorites in games after defeating the Lakers, including 0-8-1 ATS in conference games. On the flip side, the Kings are 8-1 ATS in this series when San Antonio is off back-to-back wins, including 4-0 ATS when Sacramento is off back-to-back losses. The clincher, though, comes from our powerful database as it tells us to: Play On any team off three losses in a row during the final eight games of the regular season if they are playing with same season triple revenge versus an opponent off three wins in a row if the last loss was by seven or more points and they scored less than 95 points in the loss. That's because teams in this role are 12-0 ATS since 1991. With Sacramento 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS at home with same season triple revenge versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win, we'll stay at home with the triple revenge minded Kings here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Sacramento.
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland -6
The Cavs have clinched the home court throughout the NBA playoffs and if the playoffs started tonight Cleveland would host these Raptors in the first game. Cleveland may rest some of their starters tonight, but with as deep as the Cleveland bench is they should have no trouble sending this Toronto team a message. Play on Cleveland.
Tony George
Milwaukee +6
Lots of talk from everyone surrounding Noah’s return to the Bulls and their quest for the playoffs. These two ALWAYS play a tight game and in the three games in Chicago in the series the largest margin of winning was 3 points. I like the fact that many NBA teams when they have key injuries end up getting added points, and with Bogut out, the Bucks, who have been playing well as of late, getting added value ad should give Chicago a run for their money in a tight and low scoring game here. Grab the points. Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee.
Dwayne Bryant
Angels
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Houston -135
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Barry Zito has not lived up to expectations in San Francisco; he went 10-13 with a 4.03 ERA in 33 starts last year.
He has particularly struggled at the beginning of each season that he's worn a Giants uniform; he's 2-11 with a 5.47 ERA in 15 starts in March and April for San Francisco and has lost all three of his debuts, yielding 11 runs.
Barry had a 6.36 ERA and went winless in six outings during spring training.
In the other dugout: Wandy Rodriguez gets the call for the Astros; he went 14-12 with a 3.02 ERA last year.
He was the Astros best pitcher in almost every statistical category last season and was particularly effective at home; he went 9-3 with a 2.08 ERA in 16 home starts; 13 of which Houston won.
Bottom line: San Francisco hasn't opened a season with consecutive wins since 2004.
After yesterday's 5-2 defeat, I look for the ASTROS to notch their first win of the season!
C-Star Sports
1000 Units Oklahoma City/Utah over the total
50 units San Antonio minus the points over Sacramento
50 units Arizona over San Diego
50 units Baltimore/Tampa Bay over the total