MR EAST
NCAAB TUESDAY TORTURE
MICHIGAN @ NORTHWESTERN
3 UNITS: NORTHEWESTERN -1
When you have dropped just 3 games at home and they are to Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Butler your doing pretty well. That is the case with Northwestern. Michigan has had all sorts of issues on the road this season, and has managed just a single win, and that was vs Penn St. still looking for their first league win. Wildcats are 7-1 as a favorite of 6.5 or less in their last 8, and Michigan now 3-13 ATS after allowing 50 or less in their last game. I'll go with Northwestern in this one.
PLUS LINE SPORTS
Tampa Bay/Atlanta UNDER 6
RAS
Towson +14.5
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend - Miss +10.5
Millionaire - Wisconsin -2.5
Billionaire - Neb +2.5
Primetime Sports Advisors
20 Units Northwestern -1.5
15 Units Northeastern -8
Stephen Nover
40-Dime Air Force Falcons
San Diego State is a young, talented and athletic team. These are also reasons why the Aztecs are overpriced in this matchup.
Air Force plays a slow-paced, half-court game employing a Princeton-type of offense consisting of frequent passes while milking the shot clock down. Defensively the Falcons employ a zone defense.
San Diego State is not a good shooting team, especially from long-range. The Aztecs rank 284th in 3-point shooting hitting 31.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They have struggled against zone defenses all season.
Air Force is playing its finest ball of the season. The Falcons hung in at UNLV two games ago easily covering an 18 1/2-point spread and then ended a 22-game regular-season Mountain West conference losing streak this past Saturday with a 70-63 victory against Wyoming.
The Falcons had turned the ball over 78 times while recording just 55 assists during their first six Mountain West games. But against Wyoming, the Falcons had 19 assists and only nine turnovers. The victory against Wyoming is a big confidence boost for Air Force.
One reason for Air Force playing better is a return to health of senior Grant Parker, who has played in the last three games after missing 10 games because of a pelvis injury. He was averaging a team-high 17.1 points and 7.1 rebounds before he was injured.
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West. But the Falcons can be hard to prepare against because of their Princeton offense and boring style. San Diego State doesn't have the patience and discipline to properly prepare.
The Aztecs are extremely young and have a much more important game on Saturday versus New Mexico on the road. That's the game the Aztecs are pointing to not this matchup.
20-Dime Cleveland Cavaliers
Memo to any non-believer: The Memphis Grizzlies are good. They proved it again last night holding off the Lakers in the final seconds to win, 95-93, at home.
The Grizzlies' reward? They now get to fly to Cleveland to take on a Cavaliers squad playing the second of a season-high eight straight home games. Memphis, on the other hand, will be playing for the fourth time in five days.
The Cavaliers are riding a season-best eight-game winning streak. They are 19-3 at home. The Cavs have also defeated Memphis five consecutive times at home.
The Grizzlies, though, edged the Cavaliers, 111-109, in overtime when the teams last met on Dec. 8 in Memphis. Mike Conley scored the winning basket on a layup with three seconds left. Cleveland blew an 11-point halftime lead.
It's payback time for the Cavaliers and the situation couldn't be more ripe. The Grizzlies are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season knocking off the defending world champions, proving they are indeed a playoff contender.
But that game was physically and mentally exhausting for the Grizzlies. Rudy Gay went 44 minutes and Zach Randolph logged 42 minutes.
The Cavaliers are going to take care of business here. They are 15-7-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record. They are not going to overlook Memphis.
Shaquille O'Neal has been playing well lately averaging 17.5 points during his last six games. He should overpower Marc Gasol. The Cavaliers haven't missed a beat despite injuries to guards Mo Williams and Delonte West thanks to the versatility of LeBron James, the best basketball player in the world.
Craig Davis
40 Dime – NORTHWESTERN
20 Dime – Providence-Syracuse UNDER
10 Dime – AIR FORCE
NORTHWESTERN - Even though they lost their best player and second-best reserver back in November, the Wildcats are still in the hunt for an NCAA berth with a couple more key wins, and they could really do themselves a favor by taking care of the Wolverines tonight at home. Northwestern was actually ranked 25th for one week during the season, but quickly fell from the ranks after losses to Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois. But if you consider their schedule, you know they've been battle-tested and this is just the type of game they need at this point in the season. They get a Michigan team that really doesn't play great defense and is really struggling from outside the arc.
Let's also keep in mind the Wildcats are 10-3 at home, including a signature win over Purdue and a solid 5-point win over Illinois. Michigan, on the other hand, has won just one road game all season and that came at the league's worst team... Penn State. The last time these two hooked up was back in January at Crisler Arena where the Wildcats stole a 68-62 win, and they did it on the back of freshman Drew Crawford who scored 25 points in the final 25 minutes of the game.
The good news for Northwestern, too, is that John Shurna really struggled in his last meeting with Michigan, so you can bet he has a lot to prove tonight. Shurna had a career-high 31 points in Saturday's 79-70 loss at Michigan State and seems to be finding his rhythm at just the right time of the season.
Northwestern leads the Big 10 in three-pointers attempted (25.5) and three-pointers made (9.2) while they also rank third in three-point shooting percentage (36.2%). Not only that, but they also rank third in three-point defense allowing just 29% from downtown. While I don't expect Northwestern to jump out to a big early lead, I do see them raining threes in the second half and pulling away from Michigan in the final minutes.
PROVIDENCE/SYRACUSE UNDER - I'm not usually a huge totals player, but when something smacks me in the face like this, I have no choice but to pounce on it... kinda like my 100-dime winner on the Saints/Vikings OVER in the NFC Championship game. I have looked and looked and looked again... and I've come to the conclusion that this total is either the biggest trap in the world or it's off by at least 10 points. Is it possible for these two teams to combine for 168 points? Sure, anything's possible. But we're basically talking about both Providence and Syracuse scoring 84 points tonight, and I simply can't fathom that happening.
Okay, so maybe the Orange reach 84 points tonight (though I doubt it), but I don't see Providence scoring more than 70 points. Oh sure, you might point to their 105 point output vs. South Florida or the fact they scored over 80 against Cincy and UConn in their last two... but I point you to the 63 they scored against Marquette and the 70 they scored against Louisville or the 74 they scored against St. Johns. What you have to do is compare Syracuse's defense to the defenses of the first three vs. that of the last three teams I mentioned. Syracuse compares more to Marquette than they do Cincy or South Florida, and their patented 2-3 zone will suffocate the Providence "bigs" and basically make the Friars shoot a lot more from the outside.
To be honest, that's what the Friars want anyhow... they love jacking it up from anywhere on the floor, having recorded more than 20 three point attempts in each of their last three games. But that plays right into the hands of the Orange as they allow opponents to convert just 30% from out there. Go ahead, shoot all day... you're going to have a big paw in your face and you're going to have to earn every one you make. The other thing I want you to notice is how many shots Providence has been taking in their last three games... 70, 75, and 71. It's no wonder they scored 80 or more points in those games. However, before that these were the shot totals... 52, 61, 66, 59 and 66.
Do you know the last time Syracuse allowed an opponent to shoot more than 70 shots? It was all the way back in December vs. Seton Hall... and despite allowing 77 shots to the Pirates they only surrendered 73 points. Syracuse will dictate the pace tonight and simply won't allow Providence to go nuts like they have done recently. I'm looking for something in the neighborhood of an 80-69 finish which puts us well under this ridiculously high total.
AIR FORCE - I really don't like backing bad teams, but I really think this line is out of whack. I want you to forget about the fact that Air Force has been blown out on numerous occasions this year and I want you to focus more on the fact that San Diego State simply doesn't blow anyone out. In fact, the last time San Diego State beat a team by 18 or more points was way back in November vs. Northern Arizona... an 89-48 blowout win. Their last six wins in lined games were by an average of just 7 points per game and it doesn't seem to matter if they play at home or on the road. In their defense, San Diego State probably is 18 points better than Air Force, but SDSU has much larger things on their mind and it has nothing to do with Air Force. You see, the Aztecs find themselves in the middle of two very important MWC games, and the least of their concerns is lowly Air Force. First it was a road trip to Colorado State, a 64-52 road win pushing San Diego State a full game ahead of CSU in the standings. Next up after Air Force... a trip to New Mexico. I'm sorry, but I can't imagine them giving more than minimal effort tonight, knowing full well it won't take much to beat Air Force. Bad spot for the Aztecs, and I'll be glad to take all the points I can get. I see San Diego State winning somewhere in neighborhood of 60-50. Remember, the total in this game is only 115, so if Vegas is asking San Diego State to win this thing by 18, they aren't expecting Air Force to score more than about 42 points. I'm taking the points.
Dominic Fazzini
15 Dime - AIR FORCE
The Aztecs might have their hands full tonight against a Falcons team that can drive opponents crazy with its methodical style of play.
While San Diego State likes to run at every opportunity and use its athleticism on defense to wear down opponents, Air Force takes the air out of the ball and plays a disciplined zone defense, forcing teams to stay patient both offensively and defensively.
The Falcons frustrated UNLV in Las Vegas last week for nearly the entire game before the Rebels pulled away late for a 60-50 victory, failing to cover as a 19-point favorite. And I see the same thing happening to the Aztecs tonight.
San Diego State has more turnovers than assists, it shoots just 59 percent from the free-throw line and just 31 percent from 3-point range. If those trends continue tonight, the Falcons could put a bit of a scare into the Aztecs.
Air Force is on ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 10-2 on the road, 10-2 as a road underdog and 8-1 as a road 'dog of 13 points or more. SDSU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing road record and 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of at least 13 points. I'm not saying the Falcons are going to win this game, but I think it will be a lot closer than the Aztecs would like. Take Air Force to cover the points.
BEN BURNS
10* Eastern Conf. GOW Indiana Pacers +1
8* Non-Conf. Best Bet Oklahoma City vs Atlanta Under 192.5
8* Blue Chip Nebraska vs Kansas Stake Under 135.5
10* Western Conf GOM - Nashville Predators -145
7* Atlanta Trashers -140
7* Dallas Stars -135
7* New Jersey at Toronto Under 5.5
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Wisconsin -2
3* Northwestern -1
3* Ok City Thunder PK
JIMMY BOYD
5* Public Massacre of the Year - Golden State Warriors +7
3* Indiana Pacers +1.5
4* Mississippi +11
Wunderdog
Phoenix at Nashville
4 Units UNDER 5.5 -140
VERNON CROY
Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers
5 Units: Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5
Take the Cleveland Cavaliers ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and I have the Cavaliers victorious by at least 20 points at home tonight because the Grizzlies just beat the Lakers last night at home. This may sound strange to some but they beat a tired Lakers team last night who were coming off a big win against the Celtics. Memphis is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games when their 5 starters combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. The Cavaliers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 days rest and they are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Grizzlies. The Cavaliers also have revenge on their mind since Memphis beat them in their last meeting back in December however that game was in Memphis and the Cavaliers have dominated teams at home this season.
JEFF BENTON
25 DIME: AIR FORCE
I’m not going to claim that Air Force is a top-notch basketball team, because it isn’t. But at least the Falcons have gotten progressively better with each passing conference game. Since a nine-point loss to TCU to start the Mountain West season, Air Force has lost by 22 points (at Colorado State), 18 points (vs. BYU), 23 (vs. New Mexico), 17 (at Utah) and 10 (at UNLV) before breaking through with Saturday’s 70-63 over Wyoming. And after failing to cover in four straight games, the Falcons have now cashed in back-to-back contests, including as a whopping 18½-point underdog at UNLV.
Now the Falcons are catching a similar price at San Diego State, which is just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in Mountain West action. In their three conference road games, the Aztecs have defeated New Mexico (74-64) and TCU (67-62) and lost to BYU (71-69). Do you see a blowout win there? In fact, San Diego State’s biggest conference win to date was Saturday’s 64-52 triumph at Colorado State, and that margin was a bit misleading because the Aztecs extended a single-digit advantage late because of foul shots. In fact, SDSU took 33 free throws in that game … and yet made just 18 (54.5 percent).
Which brings me to my next point: The Aztecs are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the nation, ranking 344th out of 347 Division I teams by making just 59.2 percent of their foul shots. And at home, that free-throw percentage actually drops to 54.3 percent! How can a team that shoots THAT poorly from the charity strip cover a 17-point-plus spread? Especially in what is certain to be a defensive game (Air Force yields just 62.5 ppg, while SDSU gives up just 63.5 ppg)? And especially when Air Force can actually make free throws (the Falcons shoot 66.1 percent from the charity stripe overall and 66.3 percent on the road)?
Again, guys, make no mistake that San Diego State is the more talented team – that’s not up for debate. But the Aztecs haven’t pummeled a single league opponent yet. In fact, they struggled against two lower-level Mountain West teams, blowing a 14-point halftime lead in losing 85-83 at Wyoming as a six-point road favorite and rallying from a nine-point halftime deficit to barely upend TCU 67-62, falling well short as a 13-point home chalk.
One final note: Air Force has been a big moneymaker lately, cashing in 12 of its last 17 games overall, 10 of its last 12 on the road (all as an underdog), eight of nine when catching 13 points or more and 11 of its last 12 after a SU victory. Meanwhile, San Diego State has failed to cover in five of its last six games when laying 13 points or more. Throw in the fact this is going to be a low-scoring contest (the last eight meetings have stayed under the total – with the last seven featuring 107 points or less – and as noted above, both teams play great defense), and this underdog price becomes even more enticing. Take the points, and look for San Diego State to win this game in the 8-12 point range.
BRANDON LANG
15 DIME - NORTHEASTERN HUSKIES
The best team in the league is the play here tonight.
Not only have they covered every single true road game this year with exception of a push on the road at Drexel, but they are one of the best pointspread teams in all of college hoop.
Yes, they lost their first conference game to Drexel at home but to show you what they are made of they bounced right back to handle Old Dominion at home by 10 as a 1 point favorite.
They have covered every single game this year but 4, and considering they are facing the 2nd worst team in the CAA in Delaware, a team they let hang around in the first meeting, I see a full effort tonight.
At home against the Blue Hens, Northeastern led by 6 at the half only to sleepwalk their way thru a boring 2nd half winning by 4 failing to cover the 15 1/2 point number.
That can happen when you shoot 0-10 from behind the arc at home.
With a 6-0-1 mark ATS away from home and facing a team you know you can handle, winning by 10 won't be a problem when you have won your last 4 road games by 12, 12, 5 at VCU and 25 at Towson State.
Looking for Northeastern to get the double digit win tonight.
5 DIME -DREXEL DRAGONS
Coming back with the Drexel Dragons tonight.
Off their loss but cover at William and Mary, they now get this Towson team at home in the friendly confines of their own gym.
In the first meeting at Towson, the Dragons won by 3 failing to cover the 5 1/2 number as they shot 0-10 from behind the arc allowing Towson to stay within the number.
On their home floor tonight playing an inferior opponent, only the worst team in the CAA, I fully expect a solid 20-point win for Drexel as they look to take out some frustrations on an opponent they know they can handle.
Rememeber, the best team in this league is Northeastern and Drexel just won there by double digits and I trust they will come back here and handle their business against the worst team in the league.
The last 3 games they have been getting double digits Towson has lost by 16 at home to Old Dominion catching 13 1/2, 16 on the road to Hofstra catching 12, and a 59 point loss to VCU catching 18 1/2.
I don't care if they beat the 2nd worst team in the league last game out in NC Wilmington, this is a 20 point loss waiting to happen.
FREE SELECTION - DRAKE BULLDOGS