David Malinsky
6* VILLANOVA over SETON HALL
Villanova is the ideal team to lay big wood with ? the Wildcats are
deep, talented and play a smart and hard-nosed style under Jay Wright
that means no letting up physically or mentally for the full 40
minutes. Seton Hall is the ideal team to lay big wood against, with
the Pirates a one-trick pony that rely far too much on one part of
their game to make up for other shortcomings. So in a Play On vs.
Play Against in which the fast pace shrinks the pointspread, we can
step up here.
Villanova is 8-2 ATS laying double figures this season, and in the
games in which Mouphtaou Yarou has been eligible, the final piece in
Wright?s rotation, it is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the role in which they
have beaten the spread by a collective 44 points. There is not a flaw
to be found, and in the 8-0 opening in Big East play they are
shooting 49.5 percent from the field, 41.1 beyond the arc, 75.0 at
the FT line, all while winning the battle of the boards by +5.6, and
only turning the ball over 110 times (12.5 per game, excellent at the
tempo that they play). Not even Scottie Reynolds, who only needs
seven points tonight to reach 2,000 for his career, is going a full
29 minutes per game in conference action, with 10 Wildcats averaging
at least 12 minutes. Now they are playing for the only time in a
rather large window, having been off since last Wednesday?s rout of
Notre Dame and not in action again until Saturday, and that means
ample time to prepare a game plan, unleashing a lot of energy on a
court on which they have won 35 straight games.
Seton Hall can have some occasional flashes, but the Pirates can not
cope here for the full 40 minutes. While the Pirates are a
respectable 3-5 in Big East play, with two of the losses coming in
O.T., note that they are 0-3 SU and ATS on the league road, and that
the numbers show the potential for disaster. They are shooting 41.5
percent in Big East play and allowing 48.3, an awful gap. They are
making only 26.5 percent of their triples, and 67.3 of their free
throws. They are losing the battle of the boards by -1.8 per game,
and only have 26 blocked shots. But they make up for it with those
pressing defenses, which have them +44 in turnovers. There is a
problem with that in this matchup, of course, the fact that Reynolds
and that deep Villanova back-court can turn those presses inside out,
driving to the basket for easy opportunities, and creating openings
for those sizzling 3-point shooters to find good looks. And that is
at the start of the game with the Pirates are fresh; as fatigue sets
in it only gets worse. Having allowed 53.6 percent shooting on the
Big East road so far they will struggle to make stops here, and with
Wright having so many solid perimeter defenders to rotate on Jeremy
Hazell, the best of the Seton Hall offense also gets negated.
4* KANSAS STATE over NEBRASKA
It is not surprising to see the markets attack this one they way that
they are, reducing the line all the way down to Kansas State -2.5.
That is impossible for us to pass up in a game in which the Wildcats
are simply much better than the Cornhuskers.
The ?obvious? call here by the markets is for a Kansas State letdown
off of that intense struggle vs. Kansas on Saturday night. But we do
not buy that for this group. As noted in turning a 4* ticket behind
the Wildcats that night, we have not seen a team play with more
intensity than Frank Martin?s squad this season. And with the kind of
athleticism his roster brings, that intensity turns into results.
There is no reason to believe that they back off the throttle here,
especially since there is a prime focus that helps them to bring a
special fire tonight ? they were embarrassed 73-51 on this court by
Nebraska LY, a game in which stars Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente
shot just 6-21 from the field, and as a team turned the ball over 25
times. The fact that they are commenting openly about how bitter of a
memory that was stokes the necessary fires for this setting.
Nebraska lacks size and depth, which is how you get to be 1-5 and at
the bottom of the Big 12, with four of the losses coming in double
figures. And while that lone win, Saturday?s 63-46 drubbing of
Oklahoma, carries line impact here, take it with a grain of salt. The
Sooners showed up with wobbly legs because they had to travel on game
day as a result of that winter storm, and Willie Warren and Tony
Crocker showed major signs of rust coming off of their injuries,
shooting a combined 3-16. The Cornhuskers have scored more than 63
points just one time in Big 12 play and are hard-pressed to get into
any kind of offensive flow vs. this defense, which enables the
visitors to gradually pull away over the course of the evening.
4* MICHIGAN STATE over WISCONSIN
It is hard for a team to be favored when their baskets are going to
be few and far between. But that is where the markets have Wisconsin
tonight, a sign that there is more focus on the total bottom line for
the Badger season than the true state of affairs without Jon Leuer.
Leuer was having a special season ? 15.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per
game, with 28 assists, 19 blocked shots and 11 steals. He was also a
huge factor in the first go-round against Michigan State, with 21
points, seven rebounds, two blocked shots and two steals, yet the
Badgers still lost 54-47. And while they have managed to go 3-2
without him, take a closer look at those results and the problems are
clearly there. They trailed most of the way at Northwestern, before a
14-3 closeout created that 60-50 final. They fell down by a dozen at
halftime and never really got in the hunt at Ohio State in that loss.
They trailed Michigan in the second half on this court before pulling
out a sluggish 54-48 win. They needed a complete collapse by Penn
State to rally from double figures down in the second half to escape
here at home in Overtime. And while last week?s 60-57 loss at Purdue
brought a good scoreboard it took a huge role of the dice ? imagine
Keaton Nankivil shooting 7-8 from 3-point range and still
losing the game. Without Leuer there simply is not an inside
game, and note that in the last two outings a significant 56 of their
110 shots have come from 3-point range, and they have been
out-rebounded 67-43. Those are awful numbers when the Spartans are
coming to town.
Even with Leuer playing 36 minutes the Spartans won the battle of the
boards by a dominant 38-23 in the first meeting, and in their 9-0 run
to open Big 10 play they are +83 caroms. They will win that battle
again here, and a defense that is allowing only 38.8 percent shooting
in Big 10 play, including 29.1 beyond the arc, has a chance to
control this flow. We fully expect State to win the game outright,
and the points being offered are a nice cushion in what will be
another low-scoring plodding affair between Tom Izzo and Bo Ryan.
4* GOLDEN STATE over HOUSTON
Now that we are getting better reports about Corey Maggette’s availability for tonight it is time to pull the trigger here – the Houston Rockets have absolutely hit a wall, and there is little reason to believe that this is the spot where it gets any better. They were a great story early in the season, with a bunch of role players showing the chemistry and work ethic to get off to a strong start, but role players simply wear down when forced to play too many minutes, and it is taking an ugly toll.The Rockets are just 5-9 SU in January, with two of the wins coming in Overtime. They have not won a game in double figures since December 15th. They have failed to cover their last eight settings as a favorite, and in only one of those games did they even have the lead at the end of regulation play. And the fact that these stumbles are coming after those early successes creates some psychological issues that are difficult to fix. This, from Shane Battier - “I think when we face offensive difficulties, we have a tendency to let it affect the defensive end and a lot of teams go on runs. That's been the most disheartening thing the last couple of weeks — allowing teams to go on 12-0, 14-0 runs and acting like we're out of it.”Now things go from bad to worse with the loss of Kyle Lowry, a key part of the rotation with his 25 minutes per game. They have had to call up Will Conroy from the D League, and after struggling through 10 minutes in Sunday’s loss to Phoenix he is absolutely throwing into the fire here, with Rick Adelman not really having any other options than to give him some minutes against Monta Ellis, a complete mismatch. The Warriors come in as a dangerously loose bunch here, with a sparkling 12-5 ATS run since Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf rejoined the team in late December, including 6-1 ATS as road underdogs in that span, and we project them live to win the whole game here to the final possession
KELSO
3 units Northwestern -2
5 units Wake Forest -6.5
15 units Drake +4
25 units Wisconsin -2
25 units Bulls -7.5
RAS
Delaware Un 126.5
Great Lakes Sports Guaranteed Selections
4* Villanova Wildcats
The Villanova Wildcats are on a major winning roll as they are an outstanding 15-4 ATS this year including a stellar 9-1 ATS when playing in their last ten games. The Villanova Wildcats is also a very solid 7-1 ATS when playing at home this year, and they are 6-1 ATS when playing after a conference game this year. We look for the Villanova Wildcats to grab the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
LATE STEAM NHL BLOWOUT WINNER
New Jersey -145
Great Lakes Sports Guaranteed Selections
4* Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies have a very respectable 26-20 ATS record this year, and the Grizzlies are a very nice 10-4 ATS vs non-conference opponents this year. The Cleveland Cavaliers is only 1-6 ATS in the role of a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points this year, and they are only 9-13 ATS when playing at home this year. We look for the Memphis Grizzlies to grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight.
RINKPLAY SPORTS
Interconference GAME OF THE YEAR
10* New York Rangers over Los Angeles Kings- The Los Angeles Kings return home after sweeping a very impressive 5 game east coast road trip. We feel this is the perfect spot to fade the Los Angeles Kings and their current 6 game win streak. New York finally put together a good game last time out and are the team with the least amount of recent travel in this one. Take the Rangers as the underdog tonight to shock the Kings and get back on track with their second win in a row.
3* Atlanta Thrashers over Tampa Bay Lightning
2* Columbus Blue Jackets and Colorado Avalanche Over 5.5
2* Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars Over 5.5
2* Montreal Canadiens over Vancouver Canucks
Youngstown Connection
Northwestern -1.5
Michael Trapp
Syracuse Over
Mike Neri Sports
3* Cleveland -10
3* Villanova -10.5
3* Syracuse -14.5
SEABASS
100 Northwestern
100 Nebraska
50 Mia Fla.
50 Seton hall
50 Mississippi
50 Mich. st.
100 under devils
100 under Montreal
Executive
300 Michigan
The Duke's Sports
Wisconsin (-2) for 2 Units
Good spot for the Badgers to get back in the Big 10 race after a competitive SU loss but cover at Purdue last Thursday. The badgers had an extra two days to stew over that loss and its January 6th loss to the Spartans. Recently, Mich State has been overvalued on a 1-4 ATS slide as they continue to dispatch Big 10 foes however, we'll look for the Badgers to do them in here; after all, Mich State hasn't won at the Kohl Center since February 2001, and they're just 4-10 ATS vs teams with winning SU records furthermore, Tuesday has not been their day (6-19-2 ATS). Wisky, on the other hand, is 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, and 4-0 ATS as a small home favorite. With the home team in this series at 9-2 ATS, we'll take the Badgers.
Hey Blade,
Do you ever get St Bernadines Sports picks ?
Thanks
Don Wallace Sports
Oklahoma City -1.5
Clippers +8