Al DeMarco
Vanderbilt
Texas
Oklahoma City
EZWinners
Michigan St
Jeff Benton
20 Dime Texas
If I’m going to lay a huge price with Kansas against Oklahoma State, why wouldn’t I do the same thing today with Texas against Iowa State? After all, the Longhorns are every bit as good as Kansas (and considering they went to Kansas and ended the Jayhawks’ 69-game home winning streak with a convincing 11-point road win, you could argue the Longhorns are better). Meanwhile, Iowa State (1-11 in Big 12 play) is worse than Oklahoma State (4-9 in the Big 12) – and the Cowboys, prior to getting destroyed in Allen Fieldhouse last night, got clocked in Austin last week, losing 73-55 as a 14-point underdog.
Yes, Texas is coming off its first Big 12 loss of the season, a shocking 70-67 setback at Nebraska as a 6½-point road favorite. But I believe that loss is actually a good thing, because after 11 straight wins to begin Big 12 play, you could sense the Longhorns were getting a little bored and playing with that attitude like “All we need to do is show up and we’re going to roll.” Well, after Saturday’s debacle in Lincoln, you know there won’t be any complacency with the ‘Horns tonight – they’re going to come into this one fully focused, deteremined and ticked off.
That’s bad news for Iowa State, which is in the midst of a nine-game losing skid, going just 2-7 ATS over this stretch. The Cyclones are 0-for-6 in Big 12 road games, going 1-4 ATS in the last five, including ugly losses at Kansas (89-66), Colorado (95-69) and Missouri (87-54). In fact, Iowa State has surrendered 87.6 points per game in its last five on the highway.
Meanwhile, not only did Texas win its first 11 conference games, but 10 of those victories were by nine points or more and nine of those victories were by 13 points or more. That includes six home wins (4-2 ATS) by an average of 16.2 points per game (with visitors averaging just 56.5 ppg). And even though the Longhorns have alternated spread-covers in their last six contests, they’re still 16-6 ATS for the season; 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games; 9-3 ATS in Big 12 action; and 6-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Perhaps most impressive of all, Texas hasn’t had back-to-back non-covers in consecutive lined games all season. In fact, look at what the Longhorns have done in their last three games following an ATS setback: The followed up a 73-56 loss at USC on Dec. 5 with two blowout wins in non-lined games over Texas State (101-65) and North Florida (70-48), then went to North Carolina and won 78-76 as a 3½-point underdog.
Then on Jan. 8, they suffered a heartbreaking 82-81 overtime home loss to UConn as an 8½-point chalk, and rebounded with an 83-52 rout at Texas Tech in the Big 12 opener, covering as a seven-point favorite. That started a seven-game ATS winning streak that ended Feb. 12, when the Longhorns beat Baylor 69-60 but fell just short as an 11-point home favorite. All they did four days later was pound Oklahoma State 73-55 as a 14-point favorite.
Translation: This Texas team doesn’t dwell on poor performances, but rather learns from mistakes and bounces back quickly with dominating efforts. The Longhorns, who haven’t given up more than 60 points in any Big 12 home game yet, will do just that once again tonight and rebound from the Nebraska loss by crushing Iowa State, which has proven time and again this year that it can’t compete against deep, athletic opponents like Texas.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Ohio State -10.5
4 Units Michigan State +2.5
Erin Rynning
20* Rockets
Dr. Bob
NBA Opinion
MILWAUKEE (-8) over Minnesota
Milwaukee lost at Minnesota in the first week of the season, but the Bucks generally perform their best, relatively, against bad teams, who aren’t as likely to take advantage of the Bucks’ poor offense. Milwaukee is 17-3 ATS the last two seasons against teams with a win percentage of less than .333 (excluding 0-1 teams) and road teams tend to play a bit flat in their first game after the All-Star break. My ratings favor Milwaukee by 8 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with the Bucks at -8 or less.
College Opinion/Possible Best Bet
La Salle (+14) over XAVIER
I had an opinion against La Salle on Saturday based on their horrible home record under coach John Giannini (22-48-2 ATS) but the Explorers are relatively good on the road (42-27-1 ATS) and they’re 16-8 ATS as a double-digit road underdog – including 9-1 ATS after a loss. Xavier, meanwhile, has been playing great against other good teams in conference play but the Musketeers continue to letdown against bad teams and they are now 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 11 points or more after beating lowly Fordham by just 7 points as a 22 point favorite on Saturday. I’ll lean with La Salle at +14 points or more and I’d take La Salle as a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back up to +15 points or more.
RAS
TCU Under 137
Dr Bob
2* Indiana State +5
Chip Chirimbes
Houston Rockets vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +1½
It's understood that Houston (26-31) is better then Detroit (21-36) but by how much? If you break it down as a road and home affair the Pistons actually grade out better as they are 14-15 straight-up and the Rockets are only 11-18. Houston has had difficulties in Detroit covering on two of the last nine meetings in the Motor City and the home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Clippers at Thunder
Pick: Clippers +8
Our post All Star break angle takes us to Oklahoma CIty where we'll fade the Thunder tonight. That's because our powerful database reminds us to: Play Against any regular season NBA non-division home team with six or more days of rest versus a rested opponent. That's because teams in the role are 6-25 ATS since 1990. For OKC, an overnight trip to San Antonio (6-15 SU and 7-13-1 ATS before facing the Spurs), followed by a Friday night encounter in Orlando just may have the hosts looking past the upstart Clippers. Series history suggests that wouldn’t be wise: since 2003, the Clippers are 18-7 ATS when these two hook up, including a near-perfect 10-1 ATS on the road. With the Thunder looking to avenge a 15-point loss at the Staples Center in early November, its rust over revenge in another solid post-break take as the Clippers silence the Thunder tonight in the Ford Center. We recommend a 3-unit play on the L.A. Clippers.
PPP
4% Indiana Pacers
4% Utah Utes
KELSO
50 Units Detroit +2
25 Units Utah -7
10 Units Illinois +10.5
3 Units Rutgers +4
Evan Altemus
1* Tennessee +5.5
Tennessee has an absolute must win game here after a very disappointing home loss to Georgia. They simply cannot afford another loss to have any chance of making the tournament. The Volunteers played the best teams in the SEC recently and while they played every game tough, it did not result in wins. Tennessee has been good on the road this season against the spread, evident by their close road loss to Florida as well as several road conference wins. Vanderbilt meanwhile has one of their leading scorers banged up for this game, and they haven't been that good against the spread at home this season. Tennessee plays better defense, and I expect them to have a great deal of motivation for this game. Look for the Vols to cover the spread.
Sports Bank
400 Raptors
John Ryan
25* Illinois