Stan Liskowski
5* Texas Tech
3* Georgia St
3* So Ill
Rocketman
5* Heat (GOM)
4* Golden St
3* Celtics
3* Evansville
Charlie
500* Georgetown @ Louisville Over 141
500* Northern Iowa -10
30* Seton hall -11
20* Virginia +5'
20* Creighton +5'
10* Portland -8
Cleveland -11 Free Play
Triple Crown Sports
3* LA Lakers
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket Rutgers
Illinois
Pistons
76ers
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: New Jersey Under 183.5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* KANSAS STATE/TEXAS TECH Under
Some of the best pointspread value late in the season comes when we find teams that are changing their stripes a bit, which lessens the significance of early-season results that carry so much weight in the databases. That is the case with Pat Knight and his Texas Tech team, and this high Total gives us plenty of value to exploit this setting.
Knight’s roster is not loaded with depth or size, and with John Roberson and Mike Singletary being the offensive catalysts there was an early focus on getting into the open court so that those two could make plays. That has worked – they are averaging 16.9 and 14.6 per game in Big 12 play. The problem is that no one else is scoring in double figures, and they are losing the battle of the boards by -5.1 per conference outing. So as the season progresses we see Knight doing what he should – slowing things down. It protects a thin bench and reduces the number of rebound battles that will take place, while still allowing Roberson and Singletary to make things happen off the dribble late in the shot clock. And in a home game against a superior opponent when Knight knows that his team is out-manned from a talent standpoint the focus really tightens on slowing things down – in competitive losses to Texas A&M (67-65) and Texas (71-67) in the last two games on this court, the games fell a collective 36 points below the projected Totals. It shows that the markets are far away from the way Tech is trying to manage games.
Kansas State loves to play fast, because of the explosiveness of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in the open floor, but Frank Martin’s team does not mind getting into a grinder because of that physical front-court. They get forced into that here, for while so much of their offensive production has come from that aggressive defense taking the ball away, Tech has only turned it over 139 times in Big 12 action, including only 28 from Roberson in 401 floor minutes. When those TO’s are not there the Wildcat offense can become a fingernails-on-chalkboard exercise at times (even Clemente and Pullen are shooting just 38.3 percent in Big 12 play, and as a team they have 18 more TO’s than assists), and that gives us a setting that brings neither the pace, nor the offensive efficiency, that the marketplace is calling for.
Marc Lawrence
Texas Tech +5.5
When the Red Raiders host the Wildcats at the United Sprint Arena in Lubbock Tuesday night they will do so knowing that Kansas State has never won a game on this court, going 0-6 SU and ATS in Big 12 play. In addition, Tech is 8-3 ATS at home this season, including 3-0 ATS off back-to-back losses. With KSU off a revenge win over Oklahoma, with a double revenge game up next versus Missouri, look for the Wildcats to continue their losing ways here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Texas Tech.
LA Lakers -5
When the Lakers take the court in Memphis Tuesday night they will look to avenge a 95-93 loss they suffered against the Grizzlies here three weeks ago and the setup in this game couldn't be better. That's because Los Angeles enters off a 1-point upset home loss while Memphis checks in off a 10-point road win. With the Lakers 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five road games of a loss against an opponent off a win, look for the Grizzlies to dip to 5-35 ATS in straight up home losses as a dog here this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on the LA Lakers.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* Syracuse -8.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Syracuse
Two wins away from the program’s first perfect road record in 92 years, the fourth-ranked Orange visit Providence on Tuesday night with plenty of confidence after blowing out the Friars earlier this month.
Syracuse (25-2, 12-2) began the season unranked but quickly caught the attention of voters by beating two top-15 opponents at Madison Square Garden to claim the 2K Sports Classic title in mid-November. The Orange added another neutral site win over then-No. 10 Florida on Dec. 10.
Syracuse’s 7-0 record in Big East play away from the Carrier Dome has lifted it atop the conference, with a showdown against No. 7 Villanova - currently in second place - looming Saturday night in upstate New York.
Andy Rautins wasn’t at his best when Providence (12-14, 4-10) visited Feb. 2, finishing with eight points on 3-of-9 shooting, but Syracuse’s frontcourt picked him up. Kris Joseph had 23 points and Arinze Onuaku added 20 - both season highs - as the Orange shot 57.6 percent in an 85-68 victory over the smaller Friars.
It comes as no surprise to learn then that not only is Syracuse 9-4 ATS its last 13 overall, its also 9-1 ATS its last ten on the road.
On the other side of the court: Providence has lost six straight, and Tuesday will end a grueling stretch of five games in six against top-eight opponents. The Friars, who have shot 36.9 percent in their last three contests, fell behind by 18 points at halftime Thursday at home en route to an 88-74 loss to No. 8 West Virginia; I expect another blowout.
Providence is a horrible 1-4 ATS its last five overall and just 2-9 ATS its last 11 at home.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one; look for SYRACUSE to improve to 13-7 ATS when playing the roll of favorite and for Providence to fall to 7-9 ATS as an underdog!
Bob Balfe
Illinois +2.5
These two teams match up very well together and Michigan does not boast too big of a home court advantage. Simply put, either team has a shot of winning this game, regardless of the venue. I would not be surprised to see the game come down to the last shot. If Michigan was playing at Illinois and getting 2.5 points, Michigan would be the play. Because the teams match up so well against each other, a 3-point underdog is always a smart play. This game should be a pick-em at best, so we are getting 3 free points basically. Look for this game to be extremely close and determined in the last minute of the second half. Take the Illini +2.5.
Opposite Action Plays
Cleveland -11.5
Lenny Del Genio
New York +10
There is a situation that occurs twice on tonight's card that we will be taking advantage of. It is a team returning home after a road trip of five or more games and playing a team on a long losing streak. Simply put, the "returning home for the first time" angle is one we've used in the past with great success and coupled with the fact that these angry visitors are desperate for a win, we feel we have a recipe for success. Benefiting us on both occasions is the fact that both home favorites could very likely be without their best player and are laying substantial points. The second takes place in Boston when the Celtics return home after a successful 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS road swing to host the New York Knicks, losers of seven in a row. Note that Paul Pierce is currently listed as doubtful for this game, but the play stands regardless if he plays or not. New York has not been playing well at all of late, but at least the defense shored up last night, yielding only 83 points to the Bucks. The problem is that the offense did not show up. Meanwhile, Boston has been a terrible team to lay points with and just terrible against the pointspread period over the last month. In fact, the Celtics are 0-5 ATS the last five times they've been laying points and furthermore are only 4-12-1 ATS their last 17 games overall. They are a lousy as a 14-28 ATS as a favorite this season and 6-17 ATS in home games. As double-digit chalk, they are 4-13 ATS. New York, meanwhile, has cashed 15 of the last 19 times they've been a double-digit dog and have covered eight straight when taking between 9.5 and 12 points on the road. They have revenge for a two-point loss in MSG back in November and are 26-12 ATS when playing with revenge for a home loss. Take New York.
Tony George
Lakers -5
I will lay it here as Memphis in a funk and Kobe, off an injury , like always in years, past, always has a big night upon his return. LA in revenge mode after a home loss to Memphis as well here. After beating LA Memphis have went 2-6 ATS and SU since then. LA off a loss to the Celtics, well rested for this road trip and looking to make a statement in my eyes here a double digit win. Play 1 Unit on LA.
Rocketman
Golden State -1
Golden State is 5-1 ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. Golden State is 7-1 ATS this year after an upset win as an underdog. Golden State is 5-1 ATS this year after playing 3 consecutive home games. Golden State is scoring 111.1 points per game at home this year. Golden State is 2-0 SU and ATS at home vs Philadelphia last 3 years and has covered 9 of 12 at home vs Philadelphia since 1996. 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Warriors are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic. Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Warriors are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 22-10-2 ATS in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference. Warriors are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. 76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Golden State. We'll play Golden State for 4 units tonight!
Joe Nelson
Blazers at Nets
Pick: Nets +7.5
Portland had a mega collapse against Utah at home on Sunday, blowing a 25-point lead and eventually losing in overtime. The Blazers are a sinking team, having lost four of the last six games, with every loss coming at home for a team that used to own one of the toughest home court edges in the league. Significant travel was needed to get to New Jersey tonight and the Nets, while sitting with just five wins on the year, have played with a new focus since the all star break. New Jersey picked up a road win at Charlotte and then nearly beat Miami right out of the gate before two losses at home last weekend. New Jersey covered in the first meeting between these teams this season and Portland is just a .500 road team this season. The Nets have horrendous numbers but this should be a play-on team in the second half of the season as the historically bad pace will continue to create value, including tonight as a Blazers team that is really struggling will play as a huge road favorite. Line analysis is not something to rely on solely but road favorites in the -7 to -7.5 range are 6-17 ATS on the season as this is an inflated number given how tough of a travel spot this will be coming off a crushing home loss. Look for the Nets to surprise tonight.