Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, February 8,2011

Sam Clayton

2* Purdue -14

I know what you're thinking . . . why in the world would I go against the Hoosiers when their last four games have been decided by three points or less? Well, because aside from the one-point loss in East Lansing (against the most underachieving Michigan State team I've ever seen under Tom Izzo), IU has been eating way too much home cooking at Assembly Hall, one of the rowdiest venues in college basketball. The crimson and cream upset Illinois and Minnesota, then lost by a point to Iowa, which in itself really doesn't make much sense. Either way, I stated in our write-up last week against the Gophers that Hoosier basketball is everything in Bloomington and no matter the product on the court, the place is a madhouse. Now, IU has to trek 100 miles north to West Lafayette for a reality road check.

Purdue, fresh off a loss in Madison, lost its stranglehold on second place in the conference and will undoubtedly have that extra edge to come in and feed on a much weaker opponent. Big bounce back game for the Boilers at the Mack, which like "The Barn," is a pretty tough place for the visitors because of the way the court is laid out. Of course, architecture is probably the last thing that will matter at the end of the day, but it's one of many checkmarks in the Purdue column for Tuesday night's contest. The Boilers are such a balanced, well-oiled machine on offense and they do a great job of moving the ball around and making the extra pass. Purdue is 17th in the nation and second in league play in assists, a direct result of Matt Painter's motion offense.

Outside of Ohio State, I can't think of a more fluid attack in the Big Ten. And like the Buckeyes with #0, Purdue's cog --- All-American JaJuan Johnson --- calls the paint home. Purdue's offense is predicated on getting the ball into the hands of the 6-10 center, which creates three options. Johnson's first option is obviously to take his man to the cup and given he's a very good athlete, that'll be something to watch for early in the game against a very slow, non-athletic Indiana frontcourt. After a couple of JJ buckets, option number two is to work the offense from the inside out. Point guard Lewis Jackson will come off a high screen and dump the ball down low, forcing the opposing defense to collapse in the paint. This is where Purdue is dangerous because of how well Johnson passes the rock. Two crisp passes later and one of the sharpshooting wings has a wide-open three ball. And then when you think you've seen it all, JJ shows off his mid-range game and drains a couple 17-footers. And to think we haven't even talked about E'Twaun Moore yet and all that he's capable of doing both off the dribble and slashing to the rim.

Indiana relies so much on their backcourt for points and unfortunately for them, Purdue has a plethora of long, athletic guards that can defend Jordan Hulls and really force the Hoosier role players (Watford is OUT indefinitely) to make plays. This is going to be Indiana's first road test without their leading scorer and rebounder and quite frankly, I expect the IU offense to really struggle against an always stingy Purdue defense. Lewis Jackson sets the tone and while he doesn't exactly stuff the stat sheet, his in-your-face defense sets the tone for the entire team. I know Painter is a strong advocate of man-to-man defense, but honestly, he could implement the box and 1 and take Hulls completely out of the equation. It literally would be the perfect game plan. Nonetheless, even if Hulls scores 15-20 points, I have a hard time picturing any Hoosier filling the HUGE production void left by Watford. Indiana has gotten pretty comfortable the past four games shooting in their own gym and feeding off the home crowd's energy. Tonight will be a pretty serious wake up call for the Big Ten cellar dwellers and it could get ugly in such a hostile environment. I like a convincing, bounceback win for Purdue at home.