Ben Burns
10* Detroit
10* Toronto Over
10* Drake
9* Oklahoma City Under
8* New York Islanders
Helmut
Clemson Under 133.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
St Louis Blues +106
Dr. Bob
3* Cincinnati
3* Utah
NBA Opinions
Memphis (+6½) over OKLAHOMA CITY
Memphis failed to cover last night as a 3 point home dog against the Lakers, but the Grizzlies are still 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog, including 11-1 ATS after a loss and 7-1 ATS when unrested (4-0 ATS after a loss the previous night). Oklahoma City is on a 3 game win streak, but the Thunder are not as good off a win (39-45 ATS the last two seasons) as they are after a loss (36-16 ATS) and they’re not as good as a favorite (46-41 ATS) as they are as a dog (30-19 ATS). The Thunder are only 24-31 ATS as favorite following a victory, so I don’t expect them at their best tonight. My ratings only favor Oklahoma City by 5 ½ points in this game after factoring in Memphis playing their 4th game in 5 nights. I’ll lean with Memphis plus the points based on the line value and their good dog record.
Toronto (+7) over MILWAUKEE
Milwaukee has lost 4 consecutive games while allowing 50% shooting or more in each game and tonight the Bucks apply to a negative 14-54-2 ATS situation that is based on their upset loss to the Pistons on Saturday. Toronto ended their 13 game losing streak with a win over the Timberwolves so I expect the Raptors to have regained a bit of confidence heading into this game. I’ll lean with Toronto based on the negative situation that applies to the Bucks.
College Opinion
Southern Illinois (+16) over WICHITA STATE
Southern Illinois applies to a very good 142-46-4 ATS big road underdog situation that wins every season. That angle is 6-2 this season and I tell myself every season that I’m going to bet it every time it comes up – even if I don’t think the line is fair. I’ve only bet that situation twice this season and the angle is 4-2 ATS when I don’t think the line is fair (last year it was 6-2 ATS when I passed on it for the same reason). Once again, I don’t think the line on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Wichita State by 18 points with the suspension of C Gene Teague (a few others are suspended too but they have no impact). The line opened at 17 points and has gone down to 16 points, so the line is clearly not fair. I just hate giving up more than a point of line value even if the situation is as strong as the one favoring the Salukis tonight. I’ll lean with Southern Illinois at +16 points or more and I’d take Southern Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more and for 3-Stars at +18.
Kelso
10 Units Tennessee
5 Units Boston college
RAS
Drake Over 130.5
Teddy Covers
Detroit +6.5
Indiana +14
Evansville PK
MATT FARGO
Tennessee at Kentucky
Pick: Tennessee +9.5
Tennessee is 15-8 this season following a home overtime loss to Alabama on Saturday. That record is actually a bit misleading as it could very well be better. Two non-conference losses against Charlotte and USC came by a single point while other losses in the SEC came in overtime including the one mentioned this past weekend as well as a road loss at Arkansas by three points. The Volunteers are 3-1 this season against top 25 teams, including wins away from home over No. 7 Villanova and No. 3 Pitt. Kentucky returns home following a pair of two-point road losses last week at Mississippi and Florida. The thinking could be that the Wildcats bounce back huge in this game following those two tough losses, especially with the fact that they are 10-0 at home this season as well as riding a 28-game home winning streak. Only one of those wins came over a quality opponent, Georgia, and that was by just six points. The other two SEC home wins came against LSU and Auburn, which are a combined 3-14 in the conference. Tennessee also has a couple other intangibles on its side here tonight. This is the first game in SEC action for head coach Bruce Pearl who is done serving his eight-game suspension and that is going to provide a spark especially against a rival like Kentucky. Also, the Volunteers are playing this one with some anger following a 29-point loss to the Wildcats in the second round of last season’s SEC Tournament. Leading scorer Scotty Hopson, who missed the last two games, is listed as probable and will be a big addition. Tennessee has had its troubles over the years in Lexington but we are catching a very generous line as Kentucky has been favored by this many points only once in the last 10 meetings. The Volunteers are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a home conference loss and they are currently riding a 5-1 ATS SEC streak. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games. 10* Tennessee Volunteers
DAVID MALINSKY
4* GEORGE MASON / N.C.-WILMINGTON OVER 130.5
You always have to watch carefully over the course of the season with any first-year coach. As they gradually learn the best ways to use their roster, and the players adapt to the systems, there can be significant changes while the season is in progress that is much less likely to happen for more settled sides. We are seeing that with Buzz Peterson and his Seahawks right now, as the shift of Trevor DeLoach from the #4 spot to the #3 has opened up the offense in a major way. Sound like a subtle change? It has not been. DeLoach had registered single digits in seven straight games prior to Peterson making the lineup changes, but in the last three he has exploded for 71 points, setting a new career-high each time, and in Saturday’s 91-81 win over William & Mary he sure left opposing coach Tony Shaver impressed - ”Maybe the real change in their team is DeLoach. He’s unbelievable right now. He really had the ability to go by our guys.” And that helps to set the stage for a game tonight that can be much more explosive than what the markets are projecting.
Off of badly-needed win on Saturday, and with the suspension of starting G Ahmad Grant lifted, we expect Wilmington to attack aggressively and play with passion against the CAA’s best team, rather than trying to slow things down. That passion will mean points, but not necessarily stops – the Seahawks lack the size to deal with a George Mason team playing at a special level, and it showed in the earlier 80-52 road loss, when the Patriots rolled easily despite the starting five only playing 100 of the 200 floor minutes. They are shooting 49.2 percent in CAA play, including 41.2 from beyond the arc, and are not going to be slowed down by this class of opposition.
George Mason’s six league road games have played Over at a 5-1 clip, beating the projections by an average of 12.7 per game. UNCW’s six CAA home games have played Over at a 4-2 count, beating the projections by 11.0 per game. It shows how far off the markets have been, and that leaves excellent value for this setting.
The Duke's Sports
Clemson (-8') for 1.5 Units
The Eagles enjoyed some strong road success under former HC Skinner and still maintain a level of road competitiveness under Donahue. However, BC has not had a successful history at Littlejohn Coliseum where they are 0-5 ATS. First year Clemson HC Brownell is doing a solid job keeping the strength at this venue; as a matter of fact, the Tigers are one of the top defensive teams in the ACC and lock down opponents to an average of 56.9 ppg at Littlejohn. For a struggling offensive team like BC that is trying to reestablish an offensive rhythm, this is not a good venue to do it at. The favorite and the home team in this series sports a 5-1-1 ATS mark and we won't fight that trend here.
Lenny Del Genio
Wichita St -16
The Shockers are clearly the class of the Missouri Valley as every league win this season has come by double digits. They have a big revenge game on deck at Northern Iowa, but with a two-game lead over the Panthers, there shouldn't be too much worry. Southern Illinois has lost five straight and is 0-5 ATS in those games. One of those losses was to Wichita State by 10 in Carbondale, their third straight loss in the series, including by 19 on this floor LY. WSU is allowing just 60.4 PPG here at home this year while SIU is averaging just 57 PPG on the road. The Shockers are 12-5 ATS in the chalk role this season. Wichita State is our CBB Best Bet Blowout!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* St Louis Blues +106
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
The Blues are 23-20-4-4 on the year; on Sunday they lost 4-3 in OT at Tampa Bay; that was this teams fifth loss in its last six games.
After starting the season red hot, the Blues fell back down to Earth, and it's now almost impossible to find a single positive ATS stat in any category; therefore it's significant to note that it is in fact 8-5 (+1.9 units) in none-conference games this year.
On the other side of the rink: The Panthers are 23-23-2-4 this year; on the 4th they beat New Jersey 4-3; that was the final game in a six game road trip.
Florida has struggled in this position all year; it's 2-7 (-6.4 units) when playing with 3 or more days of rest; also just 4-9 (-3.9 units) after scoring 4-goals or more in its previous game.
Bottom line: St. Louis is hungry here; it's goaltenders have both had a lot of success against the Panthers; Jaroslav Halak is 5-1-0 with a 2.15 GAA in six starts vs. Florida and Ty Conklin is 6-0-0 with a 1.67 GAA in his career vs. the Panthers.
This is a good spot for the visitors who enjoy two days off before playing a home and home with the Wild; 8* NON-CONFERENCE UNDERDOG SUPER ROUT on the ST. LOUIS BLUES!
Street Rosenthal
200* Philadelphia 76'ers +4
200* Miami Heat Under 199
200* Xavier +4.5