BOB NERBOVIG
ROCKETS +5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Detroit / St. Louis Under 5.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the "under":
Detroit entered this season searching for its ninth straight Central Division title and 19th consecutive playoff berth. The Red Wings, who lost three key scorers in the offseason to two NHL clubs and a Russian team, have had another six spend time on injured reserve since Johan Franzen tore his left ACL on Oct. 8.
In part because of those injuries, Detroit (27-21-10) is ninth in the Western Conference with 64 points, two behind Nashville.
Detroit faltered early in a 3-1 loss to Anaheim on Wednesday night, but Saturday’s 4-3 loss to Los Angeles might have been even more deflating.
Goaltender Jimmy Howard took the blame, but this loss could be attributed to the defense's problems around the net and its inability to clear rebounds or box out; I expect a huge effort from both Howard and the defense tonight though.
It's interesting to point out that Detroit has in fact seen the total go "under" the posted number in 14 of 20 games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.
On the other side of the rink: At the start of a three-game homestand, St. Louis (25-25-9) is 9-16-5 at the Scottrade Center and has dropped four in a row there, one shy of matching its worst skid from Dec. 18-Jan. 2; it's coming off a poor 5-2 drubbing by the hands of the Avalanche last night.
St. Louis has suffered its past three losses by a 11-5 margin but has outscored the Red Wings 13-9 this season while winning three of four. Right wing Brad Boyes has a team-leading three goals in those games, but has scored once in his last 24 games; I expect another offensive letdown tonight against a determined Detroit team.
Ty Conklin will most likely get the start in this back-to-back situation.
Keep in mind that the total has in fact gone "under" the posted number in six of St. Louis's last eight overall.
Bottom line: When taking all of the above into account, I believe the goaltenders take center stage this evening and believe we're getting excellent value on the UNDER!
8* UNDER
Andre Gomes
Milwaukee Bucks -8
Detroit
Pace: 91.4 (29th of 30)
Offense: 100.2 (26th of 30)
Defense: 106.0 (20th of 30)
Milwaukee
Pace: 97.1 (28th of 30)
Offense: 101.3 (23th of 30)
Defense: 101.2 (8th of 30)
This is a special time in the season where we can find some teams focused in winning to improve their chances for the playoff picture while others teams are just looking ahead to the break and for some couple of days to rest. In my opinion this is the perfect scenario for tonight's contest between the Bucks and the Pistons.
The Bucks are playing great basketball as of late by winning 7 of their last 10 games and covering the spread in 9 of the last 10 games. I've already said several times that center Andrew Bogut is playing great basketball this season and in the last 10 games, Bogut is averaging 18.2 points per game while shooting a whopping mark of 67% from the field! Plus he is grabbing 8.9 rebounds per game and 2.2 blocks per game during this span! The Bucks are caring the ball as well with 21.8 assists per game vs. just 11.6 TO/game L10 and now with Jerry Stackhouse coming off the bench they have one of the most complete and best benches of the league. The mix of these factors makes the Bucks one of the hottest teams in the league in the last couple of weeks.
Meanwhile the Pistons are struggling even with the healthy bodies of Richard Hamilton and Prince. In fact, I think that with these two players on the court, the team chemistry is just terrible and head coach John Kuester simply doesn't know what to do to find the best rotations. Note that they are paying $10M to Ben Gordon this season and he played less than 20 minutes per game in the Pistons last 5 games. The Pistons are 2-6 L8 games with their 2 wins coming from against the….Nets and still the Nets had legit chances to win those games. In the last game we can see one interesting and intriguing factor. The Pistons as a team shot 52.1% from the field and connected 8-12 behind the arc. However look for the Pistons "big 3" (Stuckey, Hamilton and Prince) field goal numbers:
Rodney Stuckey 4-13
Richard Hamilton 5-14
Tayshaun Prince 2-6
The "Big 3" combined to shot 11-33 from the field - a 33.3% clip while the rest of the crew has shot 27-40 FG - 67.5% from the field! Still, these three players played a total of 103 minutes and that's a great example of is tough to have the right team chemistry in a team.
For tonight's contest we can expect a focused Bucks team on the court:
"We're trying to finish before the break on a strong note, and I think we will," coach Scott Skiles said.
"These are two huge games right here. We really have a chance to put ourselves in a position where every game is meaningful for quite a while.
"The guys know that we've got important games coming out of the break, and I think that can benefit us."
Meanwhile the Pistons have tomorrow a "winnable" game at home against the Kings so I wouldn't be surprised if this game is near to be out of reach they will simply give up thinking in tomorrow's game. Note that the Bucks have the depth on their bench to solidify a blowout line. They have the third best bench in the league with 38.2 points per game and we can count on them to finish the job.
My projected line in this contest is the Bucks receiving a blowout line and anything less than a double digits line for them gives us the proper edge to make a play with the Bucks tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Milwaukee Bucks (-8)
Utah Jazz -5
This play is pretty similar to the Bucks play as we are dealing with a team riding a huge streak and looking to improve their seed in the Western Conference playoff picture while the other team has just lost their team chemistry.
The only reason for the Jazz being "only" 5-points favorites in this contest is because they still have a losing record (9-12) on the road this season. However note that we are dealing with a completely different team right now. In 2010 they had only 5 road games and they were competitive in each single game - the 4-0-1 ATS says it all and I remember that they played always against positive records teams: Memphis, Dallas, Denver, San Antonio and Portland. Plus this isn't a physical letdown spot for them in any means as this contest will be their 2nd game in just 6 days so we expect them to be fired up for tonight.
They are riding an 8-game winning streak and the biggest factor for such great run is related with the fact that Andrei Kirilenko is now a starter and he is playing an incredibly stellar basketball! (Plus the fact that they are finally healthy as of late) In the last 10 games, AK47 is averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting 68.8% from the field! The Jazz have a great ball movement and they constantly creates easy looks for their players. No other team in the league has more assists than the Jazz L10 games and/or scores more points in the paint than the Jazz and the currently Clippers defense don't have the tools to slow down this offensive machine.
The Clippers have now a new head coach and it will take some time for the players to play the way that head coach Hughes wants. Against the Spurs they allowed a 0-19 run in the first half and I expect them to be fired up early on tonight. However as long as the game progresses, the Jazz will rule on the court. The Jazz have several edges on the matchups tonight and having the chance to get them as just 5-points favorites is a great deal for us as my projected line is the Jazz by 8/9 points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Utah Jazz (-5)
Kelso
15* Utah -5
25* Wake Forest -6
3* St Louis +1.5
5* Georgetown -4.5
5* Illinois +2
5* Purdue +2
5* Vanderbilt -3
EXECUTIVE
400 Wake Forrest
300 Ohio
300 W Kentucky
Trent Citron
10 Units Boston College
10 Units Colorado State
Frank Patron
20000K Purdue Boilermakers +2.5
Alatex
15* Colo St. -2.5
California Sports
4* Creighton
4* Purdue Under
3* Kings Over
Don Wallace Sports
Oklahoma City -1
Utah -5
Houston +5.5