Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Indiana +5.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the visitors in this situation:
Indiana has lost to Miami twice already this year; now healthier the Pacers are actually starting to win some games; the Pacers enter Tuesday searching for their fourth win in five games and will attempt to earn back-to-back road victories for the first time since Nov. 4-17.
The presence of leading scorer Danny Granger, who missed the previous trip to Miami with a torn right plantar fascia, could help in the opener of a three-game trip. Granger has averaged 25.0 points in his last two meetings with the Heat and scored 22 in a 96-83 home loss Oct. 30th; Indiana is 3-3 since Granger returned after going 5-11 while he was out.
The Pacers have been playing better ball lately, no doubt; 4-1 ATS their last five overall. They also have precedence on their side as they are 7-3 ATS their last ten on the road against the Heat.
On the other side of the court: Miami finished 3-3 on a season-high road-trek but it ended with a 98-80 loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday night; I expect another "letdown" this evening.
Kevin Durant scored 36 points on the most efficient shooting night of his career and also pulled down 10 rebounds as the Thunder beat the road-weary Heat 98-80 on Saturday night.
Also working against the Heat in this situation is the fact that Miami is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: The Heat finished their longest road trip of the season, but are hardly done with a brutal stretch on their schedule. They get only this one-game reprieve in Florida before heading back on the road during a period when they play 19 of 24 games on the road; this will also be a distraction for this team tonight.
Behind improved play, and playing with the "double revenge" factor, look for INDIANA to improve to 2-2 ATS as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 6 points and for Miami to fall to 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points!
7* PACERS
Ron Raymond
Los Angeles
Great spot here for the Kings, they get a Sharks team who just spanked the Flames 9-1 and they’ve won 7 of their last 10 games. NO pressure on the Sharks. Quick is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Sharks and the Kings are hitting 60% this season as a home dog. It seems to be a doggy dog night! Take the Kings.
Tony George
Texas A&M -7.5
Oklahoma off an upset win against Mizzou at home Saturday, but in the process lost their #1 shooting guard to a leg injury and he is very doubtful tonight. Texas AM playing with triple revenge and they have the better team at home. Homecourt is HUGE in the Big 12, just ask Texas from last night, whom I was all over K State in that one. OU will have issues keeping pace here. Texas AM fired up after a near OT miss against rival Texas on Saturday. OU's last 3 road games were bad losses at Baylor, Gonzaga and UTEP on a nuetral site. Texas AM is just 1-2 in Big 12 play right now and this is a MUST WIN! Play 1 Unit on Texas AM
Marc Lawrence
Alabama +2
The Tide hosts the Vols in a key SEC showdown at Coleman Coliseum in Alabama tonight with revenge on their minds from being knocked out of the SEC tourney by Tennessee last year. There is no refuting the fact that Alabama owns good numbers in this series, going 18-8 SU and ATS of late, including 6-0 SU and ATS when playing off a double-digit loss. With the Tide 28-2 SU and 15-8 ATS at home off a previous home loss, and the Volunteers in off a revenge win over Ole Miss, look for Bama to improve to 7-1-1 ATS as SEC home dogs off back-to-back defeats here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Alabama.
Lenny Del Genio
Indiana +5.5
This is a bad spot for the Heat, who return home following a six-game road swing, their longest of the season. NBA teams playing their first home game following a road trip of five or more games is always a trouble spot. Portland was in this spot on 11.18 on did not cover vs. Detroit, winning by just six as 10.5-point chalk. On January 5th, Philadelphia lost outright to Washington as five-point favorites. Golden State has split in this spot on two occasions, once getting clobbered by San Antonio. So has Memphis, who lost outright to Portland early in the year. Our point is that's it's not always a play on situation, but in most cases, it's worth a look. Making this an attractive play is the fact that Danny Granger is now back for the Pacers, which makes them a far more dangerous team. After going just 5-11 SU with Granger out of the lineup, the team is 3-3 since his return and even better he's averaged 25 PPG the last two times he's faced Miami. Granger missed the earlier meeting when the Heat when Indiana was blown out 114-80. Note that the Pacers are 72-37 ATS when playing with revenge for a loss where the team scored 85 points or less. Indiana's high-scoring ways can give a team playing with fatigue issues plenty of trouble. They had scored 100+ in five straight games, twice topping the 120 mark, prior to a loss to New Orleans on Saturday. Indiana is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Bob Balfe
Raptors +10 over Cavs
Alabama +2.5 over Tennessee
WAYNE ROOT
6* Texas A&m (-7½) over Oklahoma
3* Purdue (-4½) over Illinois
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Pacers +6.5
1 Unit Wichita St. -3
Jeff Benton
30 Dime: MIAMI, FLA.
There’s not a more misleading final score in ACC play this season – and maybe all of college basketball – than Boston College 61, Miami 60 back on Dec. 6 in Massachusetts. In that game, Miami shot 47.2 percent from the field and 83.3 percent from the free-throw line and committed just six turnovers, while the Eagles shot 34.5 percent from the field, 72 percent from the foul stripe and had 11 turnovers. So how did the Hurricanes lose? Two reasons: They got outrebounded by a whopping 43-19 margin, and they got hosed by the officials. See, those aforementioned free-throw percentages are deceptive, as Miami went 5-for-6 from the charity stripe, and B.C. went 18-for-25. Yep, the home team shot 21 more free throws, and that proved to be the obvious difference in a one-point game.
Well, tonight’s contest is down in South Beach. You think that free-throw gap might narrow significantly this time around? Of course it will. Hell, even if the free throws are even, Miami not only wins this game, it covers it easily.
Yes, the Hurricanes have followed up a seven-game winning streak (which started after the loss at Boston College) with consecutive disastrous efforts on the road against ACC foes Virginia Tech (15-point defeat) and Virginia (18-point defeat). But Miami has proven to be a much stronger team at home, where it has won 11 in a row (9-0 this year), and that streak started last February with a 69-58 victory over Boston College as a 6½-point home favorite. This year at home, Miami has posted seven double-digit wins (and another was a five-point victory over a solid Minnesota squad), and the Hurricanes’ average margin of victory at home has been 20 points.
As for Boston College, it has lost three straight ACC games to Clemson (72-56 on the road), Duke (79-59 on the road) and Maryland (73-57 at home), failing to cover in all three contests. Not only were the Eagles not competitive in those contests, but they couldn’t score the ball, scoring 56, 59 and 57 points while shooting just 38.9 percent (their opponents shot a combined 46.8 percent and scored 72, 79 and 73 points!).
Back to this rivalry: Although Miami came up short in Boston back in December, it did cash as 4½-point road underdog. So the Hurricanes are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings (and as I have detailed, that one loss very easily could’ve been a Miami win).
Two final points to make: Since stealing that game from Miami, Boston College is just 4-6 SU – with losses to Harvard, Rhode Island and Maine, all at HOME! – and the Eagles are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight lined contests.
Guys, this is a total mismatch, and this line is an absolute joke and an overreaction to Miami’s last two performances, which came on the road in ACC play. The Hurricanes get back on track tonight in their building and they do so by handing mediocre-at-best Boston College yet another double-digit conference loss!
Opposite Action Plays
Ohio St. -11.5
VIC MONTE SPORTS
500* TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS -2
Wayne Chism has got to be in his, what, eight year of college hoops now? Come on, its seemed like I have been bringing up his name the past decade in write-ups when I choose to back the Volunteers on the college hardwood. For those of you about to call the NCAA headquarters to report this Julio Franco age like dilemma, don't, I looked it up, he has only been here since the 2006 season and is a fourth year senior. Aside wearing his headband like Mike Reno in his days as lead singer for Loverboy, Chism is a moneymaker and a security asset for people backing Tennessee. He single handily changes game after game recording double doubles in the Vols blowout win at home to Auburn and Ole Miss. Against Kansas he got physical down nearly every possession and shut down the then rated #1 Jayhawks potent offensive attack. Tonight Chism leads the surging Tennessee Volunteers into Tuscaloosa to take on the slumping, and I say that as nicely as I can, Alabama Crimson Tide.
Coming off an embarrassing loss to USC on December 19Th the Volunteers sat at 8-2 on the season with 8 meaningless wins and 2 crushing losses to the only 2 quality programs on their schedule. Playing 5 of their next six games at home Bruce Pearl needed his team to make a statement. Two days before Christmas the Vols pounded North Carolina A&T by 21 points, then traveled to Memphis where they beat the Tigers and a hostile crowd 66-59. Then the four game home stand started with a blowout of Charlotte 88-71. The Vols then handed number one Kansas their first loss of the year 76-68 which was followed up by an absolute dismantling of Auburn 88-51 and a OT thriller of number 23 ranked Ole Miss 71-69. Chism, Pearl and company are thrilled and after cutting some "slack" after a New Years Day traffic incident the team chemistry has boomed and the Vols are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Tennessee sits 20Th in the nation offensively producing 80 points per game while allowing teams to score only 62.
Alabama on the other hand is in serious trouble. It appears the national championship celebration hangover is still in full effect. Besides the Tide beating up on the worst team in the SEC, the LSU Tigers, they have failed to win a game in conference this year. Losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas added with Florida State, Purdue, Cornell and Kansas State lead the Tides signature victory a November 26Th win over Baylor. Alabama is just 1-5 against the number in their past 6 home games. They sit at 3-8 n the last 11 as a home underdog. Their sputtering offense is generating a 144Th ranked 70 points per game and a par for the course defense is holding teams to 65 a game.
You can not back this Alabama team because they do not win games, they maintain. They will play with teams until a mistake is made and even then struggle to close the gap. Alabama has been matched up against terrible teams all year and still have covered only 50% of games. They have been home underdogs 3 times this season, they have failed to win or cover any of those games. Tennessee is motivated, they are hungry, they have desire to win and they are here to make a statement. They have this game today and don't play until Saturday against Georgia who is bottom of the SEC east. They are focused to win this one because they know just as well as we do, its going to take a miracle for the game on the weekend to be competitive. The Vols get it done in a big way tonight in Tuscaloosa and will move into second place in the SEC just behind Kentucky. 500* Syndicate - Tennessee -2
The Duke's Sports
Georgia Tech (-1') for 2.5 Units
Clemson has a nice 4-1 SU / 3-2 ATS mark on the road however, at a closer glance, early in the season the Tigers beat lightweights Liberty, NC Greensboro, and East Carolina, which all sport losing records. On the other hand, when the Tigers were pitted at Duke, they got hammered, and failed to cover Saturday at N.C. State. As a matter of fact, the Tigers are just 1-5 ATS on the road vs a home team above .600. And the Tigers won't have an easy time tonight after all, they'll most likely be without G Demontez Stitt (foot) who gives them floor direction, defense, points (11 ppg) and energy consequently, more pressure will be put on Tanner Smith with Noel Johnson and Andre Young - all not used to playing extended minutes nor controlling the floor or scoring consistently. Clemson likes to speed things up but should have trouble against an athletic Yellow jackets' team on a strong home floor. With turnover time just 2 days from the last time each team played, edge to the home team.
POWER PLAY WINS
Utah Utes -1.5
ANTHONY REDD
15-Dime - Ohio State
15-Dime - Indiana State
15-Dime - Oklahoma
KBHoops
5* Wichita State -3 **POD**
4* Illinois +4.5
4* Georgia Tech -1.5
3* Ohio St. -11.5
3* Tennessee -2.5