Scott Spritzer
4* Celtics Under
3* Celtics
4* Dodgers
3* W Sox
3* Yankees
Andy Iskoe
Celtics at Lakers
Pick: Lakers -6.5
This is truly a "must win" situation for the Lakers as they face elimination as the series returns to their home court. This has been a series of adjustments and spurts and Boston is to be commended for their solid win in Game 5 that created a 3-2 lead in the series for the Celts. The price is too steep to make a money line play recommendation (Lakers minus 300). The points have yet to come into play in this series but tonight's spread is the highest of any game in the series. Still, the spot calls for a play on the Lakers who figure to play with intensity for the full 48 minutes and attempt to build momentum for a Game 7. As the end game plays out the Celtics might relax and allow the Lakers to expend extra energy once the outcome becomes evident. This is not to suggest that the Celtics will concede this game or that they will be non-competitive. Likely they will make several runs in this game. But the expectation is that the Lakers will feed off the crowd in the fourth quarter and break open what might be a close game after three quarters. Expect Lamar Odom and Ron Artest to be more involved at the offensive end of the court than they've been and for the travel and short turn around time to have a greater negative impact on the aging Celtics than on the pumped up and desperate hosts.
Paul Leiner
100* NYY/Phi Over 7.5
50* Cubs -130
25* Mets -145
Scott Rickenbach
8* Minnesota / Colorado Over
Three of the Rockies last four games have gone over the total. In interleague action this season, Colorado is 4-2 to the over. The Twins have gone over the total in 5 of their last 8 home games. They have certainly enjoyed their new home park this season. Minnesota is hitting a solid .283 at home this season and their .365 on base percentage at home ranks 2nd in the majors! Colorado sends Aaron Cook to the mound and he’s unlikely to put a stop to the Twins solid hitting at Target Field. Cook is winless in his seven road starts this season and the sinkerballer has compiled an ugly 6.81 ERA while being pounded at a .322 clip away from home. In his only career start against Minnesota, Cook was ripped for six earned runs on 11 hits and 3 walks in a start in which he lasted just four innings. Another big concern for the Rockies right-hander tonight is how poor he’s pitched against lefties this season. They are hitting him at a .305 clip plus he’s walked 20 (while striking out just 9) in his 28 innings against left-handed bats this season. The Twins will be loaded up from the left-hand side of the plate for tonight’s game and this makes it even more likely that Cook’s road struggles continue.
The Twins pitching situation tonight, on the surface, looks better. However, the issue for Carl Pavano tonight is that the Minnesota right-hander has spent a lot of his career in the National League. That said, the usual interleague edge of a pitcher going against a team that is not familiar with him is simply not present here. Pavano is 4-2 in his career against the Rockies but they’ve pounded him at a .289 clip. Also, the Twins right-hander has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 34 innings on the mound. That equates to a 4.76 ERA which is well short of being impressive. He’s allowed 5 homers in these five starts. Pavano, like Cook, has struggled against left-handed bats this season as they are hitting .300 against him. The Rockies roster of position players includes six left-handed sticks and a switch-hitter so they will absolutely be able to load up from the left-hand side of the plate for this match-up. Both of these bullpens have been solid this season but on a mild night in the Twin Cities, where both starters are likely to struggle early and often, we aren’t going to pass up on the line value here with this low total. This is especially true when the Rockies have 77 hits in their last 8 games and the Twins had 51 hits in the first 5 games of their homestand before the Braves shut them down on Sunday. Plenty of offense resumes tonight with this favorable pitching match-up. Play OVER the total in Minnesota as an *8* Regular Play selection.
ASA
3* Tampa Bay / Atlanta Under 8.5
It has not taken long for David Price to establish himself as one of the elite pitchers in the game. In his first full season as a starter Price is already 9-2 and his ERA is just 2.23 on the year. Price has mostly been dominant as opposing batters own a .204 batting average and in seven of his last nine starts Price has allowed two or fewer runs. Many of those starts have come against the American League and he will have a great opportunity against a National League lineup and NL rules Tuesday night to open a big series in Atlanta. The under is 7-3 in the last ten starts for Price, and he has had very strong success on the road this year.
Not many 0-8 pitchers stay in the rotation, especially on a winning team but Kenshin Kawakami has deserved much better than his current record. Kawakami has a 4.48 ERA and a 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he has delivered a quality start in four of his last five outings. In two of his last five starts he has pitched six shutout innings and his ERA is 3.68 in home games this season. Atlanta?s bullpen has done a great job in recent weeks featuring a 2.08 ERA in the last ten games and this series will feature two of the top bullpens in baseball.
The Braves are banged up on offense with Nate McLouth and Matt Diaz on the DL and Omar Infante and Chipper Jones likely unable to go for tonights game. Atlanta finished up a successful road trip with a series win in Minnesota but the Braves scored a total of just eleven runs in those three games. Atlanta is also batting just .239 for the season against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is 19-6 in home games this season, allowing just 3.5 runs per game. In the last home stand the Braves did not allow more than three runs in any game and the Rays should be shut down in this match-up.
Tampa Bay is 22-8 in road games this season but the Rays are batting just .259 in road games for the year. Rays hitters will never have faced Kawakami as these teams have not met since 2006 and the under hit in all three games in that last series. The Rays have faced questionable pitching staffs in recent weeks to enhance their scoring numbers and the loss of the DH will hurt this squad playing in an NL park. Turner Field has averaged less than nine runs per game with only 43 home runs and a collective batting average of just .253. Look for more low numbers in this series opener with two undervalued starters on the mound.
Stephen Diamond
5* Celtics/Lakers Over
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Boston (+6.5) over Los Angeles
Los Angeles has lost 3 of the last 4 games and they have also lost 12 of the last 16 games against the spread vs. Boston. Los Angeles has lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread when the total posted is between 180 and 189.5 points and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread when trailing in a playoff series.
Play Florida (-155) over Texas
Florida pitcher, Josh Johnson has won 15 of the last 18 games as a home favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 7 consecutive games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Josh Johnson has won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching in the month of June and he is 5-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.50.
Play Chicago White Sox (-125) over Pittsburgh
Chicago has won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also won 28 of the last 42 inter-league games. Freddy Garcia has won 16 of the last 19 road games in the month of June and he is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 3.00.
KELSO
50 Units Phillies +120
15 Units Marlins -160
5 Units Oakland +110
John Ryan
25* Lakers
Teddy Covers
Celtics/Lakers Under 189
Phillies
Astros/Royals Over 8.5
Chris Jordan
400 Units Yankess
200 Units Teaser Lakers & Over
Sean Michaels
50 Dime Lakers 1H
Jeff Benton
30 DIME Los Angeles Lakers
10 DIME Philadelphia Phillies
Lakers
With their backs pressed firmly against the wall, you can expect the Lakers to come out swinging tonight. And you can expect Kobe Bryant to throw the biggest haymakers of all. Bryant lit into his team after a piss-poor effort in Game 5 in Boston, where #24 was the only one who came ready to play. He scored 38 points, while his teammates combined for just 48. The only player besides Bryant to score in double figures was Pau Gasol, who had a measly 12 points on 5-for-12 shooting, easily his worst game of the series (and really the entire postsaason).
More important than the putrid offensive effort was L.A.’s play – or lack thereof – on the defensive end on Sunday. Boston shot a sizzling 56.3 percent from the field, and if you take away their awful 3-for-12 effort from the three-point line, the Celtics made 37 of 59 two-point field goals, or 62.7 percent. And mostly it was a layup drill for Boston, which had half of its 92 points (46) from inside the paint.
The last time Kobe was this irate at this supporting cast was following a Game 2 loss at home. The Lakers responded with a 91-84 win in Game 3 in Boston, and the defense was the key as L.A. held the Celtics to just 43.8 percent shooting.
Keep in mind that the Lakers have lost just once at home this season (the Game 2 defeat to Boston), and they haven’t had three consecutive losses in these entire playoffs. Of course, the Lakers could keep that latter streak alive tonight and not cash a ticket if this game ends up being a nail-biter and Boston loses but covers the spread. However, that’s highly unlikely considering the straight-up winner has covered the pointspread in each of the first five games of this series. Additionally, the SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the winner has covered the pointspread in each of Boston’s last 32 games (including all 22 postseason contests).
Finally, I’d be doing a disservice if I didn’t mention the potential impact the officials could have in this contest. You know the Lakers, being back at home, are going to get all the calls in this one. And L.A. coach Phil Jackson knows it, too, which is why I’m sure his game plan will be to pound the ball down low to his big men early and often and encourage Bryant to take the ball to the rim, with the goal being to get to the foul line and get Boston’s big men in foul trouble. I’ve seen enough NBA Playoff elimineation games to know that such strategy usually works in favor of the home team.
Bottom line: We’ve seen just one double-digit victory so far in this series, and that was back in Game 1 when the Lakers opened up a 20-point second-half lead against the Celtics and cruised to an easy 102-89 victory. My money says we’re going to see a carbon copy of that game tonight, right down to the Lakers controlling the paint like they did in Game 1 when they had a 48-30 point advantage down low. Throw in the fact that the long trip West with only one day between games is an enormoous advantage to the younger Lakers, and I’ll call for a 101-83 L.A. win as this thing moves to a winner-take-all Game 7.
Phillies
I know Philadelphia is struggling. I know it’s extremely difficult to win at Yankee Stadium (where New York is 60-16 in its last 76 games). And I know the Bombers have CC Sabathia on the bump tonight. That said, I cannot pass up Roy Halladay as an underdog, I just can’t.
Halladay is 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA on the season, 2-1 with a 1.12 ERA in his last three starts (with a 26-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio!) and 4-1 with a 1.52 ERA in six road games (where he has a 44-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Obviously, Halladay is very familiar with the Yankees going back to his days with the Blue Jays. In fact, Halladay is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA in 37 career games (35 starts) against New York. The last 19 times Halladay faced the Yanks, he led his team to 15 victories. On top of that, Halladay has delivered 10 quality starts in his last 12 appearances against New York, allowing just 28 earned runs in 93 2/3 innings (2.69 ERA) with five complete games!
As for Sabathia, sorry, but the guy has been ordinary at best this year. He’s 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA, and New York is just 7-6 in his 13 starts (3-2 at home). He’s faced Philadelphia six times in his career (three times last year with the Yankees, including two World Series starts, once with Milwaukee and twice with Cleveland), and his teams went 2-4 in those six games.
Yes, the Yankees did knock off Philadelphia in the 2009 World Series, but Philadelphia took two of three interleague contests at Yankee Stadium last May – and, obviously, Roy Halladay wasn’t on the mound for either of those two wins. Finally, Monday’s day off came at a perfect time for the Phillies, who are 39-18 in their last 52 games following a break.
SPORTBOOK GURU
3 Units Kansas City -120
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
HARDWOOD CLUB NBA PLAYOFF OFFSHORE STEAM WINNER
LA Lakers -6.5
HARDWOOD CLUB NBA PLAYOFF OFFSHORE TOTALS WINNER
Boston and LA Lakers OVER 188.5