King Creole
2* Lakers / Boston Celtics Under 193
From an Over / Under standpoint, each of the first two games of the NBA Finals were VERY close to the OU lines. Game One went 'UNDER' (or tied according to your line).... and Game Two went 'OVER' by 4.5 points. According to our Playbook NBA database, we can expect a 'lower-than-anticipate' point total in Game Three... if previous OU patterns and tendencies hold true to form.
Let's first look at the UNDERDOG nature of Boston's Sunday night Game Two win on the road. One System pertains to All Game Threes specifically... while the other pertains to ALL Playoff games.
0-8 O/U since 2005: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE home favorites playing off a SU UNDERDOG win (Celtics)... when the OU line is > 188 points.
13-32 O/U since 1995: ALL Playoff (any round / any game) home teams playing off a SU win of 5 or more points in a game in which they were an Underdog of +5 or more points (Celtics). The results improve DRAMATICALLY the later we get into the Playoffs. In Rounds 2, 3, or 4, these games have gone 4-19 O/U (and 1-12 O/U since 2003).... In Rounds 3 or 4, the numbers improve to 2-10 O/U (and 0-4 o/U since 2003)... and in the FINAL ROUND, the number are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.
1-9 O/U since 1992: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE home teams (Celtics) in Rounds 3 or 4 off a SU win and SU loss in their last 2 games. Since the 2001 season, these games have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U.
Now let's look at the OU results thus far in this series:
0-7 O/U since 1994: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE home teams (Celtics) in Rounds 3 or 4 playing off an 'OVER'... and 'UNDER" in their last 2 games.... when the OU line is 171 > points.
The OU line range also provides us with some betting 'ammo':
1-7 O/U since 2005: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE home teams with an OU line of 191 to 195 points (Celtics).
Game Three will be played with ONE day of REST...
3-13 O/U since 2003: All NBA Playoff ROUND FOUR home teams (Celtics) playing with ONE day of REST... when the OU line is 174 > points. If these teams are playing off a SU win in their last game (like Boston is), the results are a PERFECT 0-8 O/U.
JR O'Donnell
3* Lakers + 125
We're on the Lakers on the $$$$ line tonight as the world is on the Boston Celtics at home in game 3 tonight. The Lakers will take the Paul Pierce locker room material and use a sound defensive plan and stop the Ray Allen show from going off as he did last game. The Rondo triple double really got to Coach Jackson's boy's & Ray Allen offensive out put will not happen tonight as the D will be stepped up. The Lakers respond well after a poor outing and the we note that the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Boys from Boston will be the public side as a 7-2 home ats spread run will have the public take notice!! Let’s roll out the boys from California as we will call for an outright Lakers W
igz1 sports
3* Florida/Philadelphia Under 9.5
Bobby Maxwell
1000 Units Celtics -2.5
Bill Marzano
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Washington
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) KARSTENS, J vs. (R) STRASBURG, S
Play: Washington (-1.5 +110)
I really like the Washington Nationals in this game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates...believe the hype! S.Strasburg is the real deal and so is their No.1 overall pick B.Harper...the nations capital will be buzzing tonight and you can believe the Nationals players are excited as well...although I believe Strasburg will be on a limited pitch count, he will shut down the Pirates bats...I also think the Nats bats will come to life giving Strasburg plenty of run support and turning it over to the pen...Strasburg run line is the play here
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Florida at Philadelphia
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) VOLSTAD, C vs. (R) KENDRICK, K
Play: Florida (ML +130)
The Phillies are the two-time defending NL Champs, and they're a good bet to be there again come playoff time this season. But right now, this team's offense is stuck in a big time funk. They got completely shut down again on Monday by Wade LeBlanc. He's a lefty, and that's where this attack really struggles, but even against righties it's not as though Philly is crushing the ball. Add in the fact that they are sending out their #5 starter tonight in Kyle Kendrick, and I see the Phils being a little overpriced tonight. Chris Volstad has been pretty steady for the Marlins, so I like their chances of scoring a road win here. Grab the price with the Florida side.
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Matchup: St Louis at L.A. Dodgers
Time: 10:10 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CARPENTER, C vs. (R) KURODA, H
Play: St Louis (ML -115) Solid Gold Play
The Dodgers are on a pretty substantial roll right now, so betting against this team at home is not the easiest proposition on the planet. But if there's a night to do so, this looks to be it. Chris Carpenter is in his usual machine-like form for the Cardinals, and he has absolutely owned LA. In six career starts against the Dodgers, Carpenter is 5-0 with a glittering 2.20 ERA. The hosts counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who's usually good enough to keep his team in it, but who also has not been at his best lately. This is a cheap price for Carpenter, and it's low enough for me to step forward with a call on the Cardinals.
MR EAST
MLB TUESDAY GOLD
3 UNITS - NY METS -140
Mike Pelfrey has had a lot of expectations to live up to, but he finally has arrived, and in a big way. Pelfrey has allowed just 4 rns in his last 4 starts, an overall the Mets are 9-2 when he takes the mound. Pelfrey is 5-0 at home with a 2.05 ERA, and the Mets are making use of their home field at 22-9 for the season. Padres at just 2-5 behind Richard when he pitches after a quality start in his last outing. Mets crushing lefthanders where they are a picture perfect 7-0 in their last 7. Mets get this one.
THE PREZ
8* Boston Celtics -2.5
Like they did on Sunday night at the Staples Center, the Celtics must push the pace if they want to take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-7 series. The only way Boston can continue their winning ways against the current LA club is by scoring 100 points (like they did in Game 2). While this might seem a stretch considering that the Celts are considered a defensive minded team, especially in the Garden, they can't and won't play a perimeter style man-to-man like they did against the Magic, and they are at a disadvantage in most man-on-man matchups against the Lakers first seven players.
The Lakers didn't travel well this season and although the Celtics didn't dominate on their home court this season, they are as healthy as they've been the entire year and will be juiced for Game 3 sitting on a chance to take a 2-1 lead against the Finals favorite.
Not only will the Celtics be more competitive on the boards they will create more turnovers on their home floor. In the first two contests in LA the Lakers were able to win the battle of the boards and limit their turnovers. With an up and down pace expected on Tuesday Nite in the Garden taking the Celtics on the side with a dead number (-2 to -3) offers supreme value.
While we rarely pimp, promote or sector days of the week, there is something to be said for Tuesday night games in the Association. Both teams are typically rested in this situation. This will be the case in Tuesday's Game 3. Playing to the OVER on a team playing only their second game in five days that averages over 50 points and shoots better than 48 percent from the floor in the first half of home contests while allowing their opponent to average 18 or more assists and seven steals per contest when oddsmakers open the total between 190 and 194.5 points has cashed at a 80% (42-11) clip over the last five NBA campaigns. The Celtics are also 20-8 to the OVER in home games the last two seasons against teams (LA) that average more than 83 shots per game, with the average final score exceeding 209 points.
Dwayne Bryant
Seattle/Texas Under 8.5
Dwayne Bryant
Seattle/Texas Under 8.5
This is a free play not a premium play.
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Lakers +2.5
3 Units Mariners -110
3G Sports
Celtics
Pirates
LENNY STEVENS
10* Boston Celtics
SPORTBOOK GURU
1 Unit Boston/LA Lakers Over 192.5
2 Units Arizona +105
2 Units San Diego +125
Rocketman
4* St.Louis
3* Texas