Power Play Wins
Dallas Mavericks -1.5
Sean Higgs
4* Wisc Green Bay
4* Nebraska
Jimmy Boyd
3* Grizzlies -1.5
3* Alabama +6
Erin Rynning
20* Golden State
Tim Trushel
20* Spurs / Grizzlies Under
EZWinners
Penn St
Chris Jordan
UW Green Bay +6
Keith Glantz
100* Vanderbilt
100* San Diego St
50* Boston College
50* Missouri
Keith Fredrick
Lakers at T'Wolves
Pick: Lakers -9
Timberwolves have not shown a lot of bite as a home dog of 8 or more going 1-19 SU and 6-14 ATS. They have hot had a lot of success off a win either with a 3-11 SU & 5-9 ATS record. Minn is still Minn going 4-16 SU & 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games while LA has been solid off the All Star Break winning 4 contests SU & ATS. Lakers have had good success in the land of 10,000 lakes winning 6 straight going 5-1 ATS, along with a decided Power Rankings advantage - everything points to a 15 to 18 point win.
Jeff Benton
25 Dime Vanderbilt
Who has the better record, Vanderbilt or Kentucky? Answer: Vanderbilt is 21-7. Kentucky is 20-8.
Who has the better conference record, Vanderbilt or Kentucky? Answer: Vanderbilt is 9-5. Kentucky is 8-6.
Who has the better pointspread record, Vanderbilt or Kentucky? Answer: Vanderbilt is 14-9-1 ATS, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four games on the road. Kentucky is 10-12-1 ATS, including cashing just twice in its last nine games.
Which of these teams owns a victory over the other this season? Answer: Back on Feb. 12, Vanderbilt beat the Wildcats 81-77 as a one-point underdog.
Given all these stone-cold facts, I’d like someone to explain to me how in the world Kentucky is this big of a favorite tonight?!?! It makes absolutely no sense, especially when you consider that the Wildcats are playing .500 basketball over the last eight games (4-4 SU). Yeah, Kentucky is 14-0 at Rupp Arena and undefeated in its storied building since John Calipari took over the program last year. But only eight of those 14 games were lined contests, with the Wildcats going just 5-3 ATS, including 3-3-1 ATS in SEC home games.
On the other hand, the Commodores are 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in conference road games, failing to cover in a 67-64 loss at Tennessee as a 1½-point underdog and pushing as a seven-point road favorite in an 81-74 win at Mississippi State. Furthermore, Vandy has lost five games away from home this season, and of those, three were in overtime to Florida, South Carolina and Missouri by 4, 8 and 3 points, respectively, and the others were the three-point loss at Tennessee and a three-point neutral-court loss to West Virginia back on Nov. 19. Translation: Vanderbilt hasn’t lost by more than eight points on the road all year!
Including neutral-site games, the Commodores are 9-2-1 ATS away from home this season and 6-1 ATS as an underdog (the one non-cover coming as a 1½-point pup at Tennessee).
Bottom line: I respect Kentucky’s home-court advantage, but the oddsmakers aren’t giving Vanderbilt enough credit for A) its experience edge (the Commodores are a veteran team; Kentucky is very young); B) its success away from home this season; and C) its gritty home win over the Wildcats less than 2½ weeks ago.
Give me the points and don’t be surprised if we get an outright upset here, as I truly believe the Commodores are a dark-horse Final Four team – when they bring their “A” game, they’re that good.
LPW Sports Forecast
3 Units San Antonio -1.5
3 Units Golden.St/Indiana Over 215
Kelso
10 Units Alabama
5 Units San Diego St
Helmut
Valparaiso Over 144
The Duke's Sports
Dallas Under (200') for 2 Units
The value is in the "under" here. The red hot Mavericks have recently played a nine game stretch consisting of teams either in transition with personnel or just poor defensively en route to a 1-8 O/U run. Tonight, they'll face one of the stronger defensive teams in the EC in Philadelphia, which allows just 93 ppg on its home floor. This series is 1-6 O/U. In Philadelphia, this series has produced point outputs of 160, 188, 173 in its last three, respectively. The 76ers are 1-6 O/U as a small home dog and 2-5 O/U at home against a team with a road winning % above .600. Both head coaches are heavy sticklers to defense and we see a lower scoring game than what this 'total' dictates.
John Ryan
25* Virg Tech