Dr. Bob
Tuesday NBA Opinions
MIAMI (-1 1/2) over San Antonio
Miami is playing at a high level recently and the Heat are better off without injured F Michael Beasley, who is decent offensively but horrible on defense. In fact, the Heat allow 1.07 points per possession when Beasley is on the court and only 1.02 ppp when he's on the bench. With Beasley out the Heat defense is 2.2 points better per game than it is overall for the season. Even without factoring that in my ratings still favor the Heat by 2 1/2 points in this game (with no adjustment for Parker being out for the Spurs) and Miami applies to a 69-18-1 ATS home momentum situation. Unfortunately, a not as great 8-6 ATS subset of that angle applies to this game, so I'm reluctant to make the Heat a Best Bet given that the best part of the situation doesn't apply. I'll still lean with Miami at -2 or better.
Minnesota (+12 1/2) over PHOENIX
Road underdogs of 11 points or more are 45-19 ATS this season if they didn't play the previous night and Phoenix applies to a negative 67-147-2 ATS big favorite look ahead situation (they play Utah next). The Suns are also just 10-26-3 ATS in the Steve Nash era as a favorite of 9 points or more following a win of 12 points or more, so they may not give their best effort tonight against the lowly Timberwolves. Unfortunately, my ratings favor the Suns by 13 1/2 points and I don't want to give up that line value even though Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS laying 11 points or more this season. I'll just lean with Minnesota at +12 points or more based on the strong letdown situation.
Tuesday College Opinions
Connecticut (-7 1/2) over Northeastern
North Carolina (-8 1/2) over William & Mary
There is some talk of U Conn and North Carolina not being fired up to play in the NIT given that those teams are usually are competing in the later rounds of the NCAA tournament. However, that may not be the case given that teams that won 23 or more games the previous season are actually 66-36-1 ATS in their first NIT game, including 17-2 ATS if they enter off consecutive losses. North Carolina also applies to a 37-10 ATS first round NIT angle. I'll lean with U Conn and UNC based on the trends.