Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Denver / New York Over 217
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over"
Denver is coming off its second loss in ten games, a 102-97 home loss to Milwaukee on Saturday.
Carmello Anthony and the Nuggets will be looking to turn it around tonight though against a team they've had plenty of success against; averaged over 117 points at Madison Square Garden over its last four games.
Very interesting to note that Denver has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in all five games its played this season after playing to three or more consecutive "unders"!
On the other side of the court: New York is coming off a 116-112 home loss to Houston on Sunday.
It was one of the more complete games for Tracy McGrady, who’s still recovering from 2009 microfracture knee surgery. He’s averaging 10.9 points, 4.3 boards and 4.1 assists in 16 games since being traded to New York.
New York has seen the total go "over" the number in 18 of 29 vs. good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per contest.
Bottom line: Very important to point out that in five of these teams last seven games against each other, regardless of location, the total has gone "over" the number; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the OVER!
Tony George
Texas Tech +9
Too many points deep into this Tourney for the Red Raiders. Ol MIss gets a serious step up in class here and the last time Tech was a 9 point road dog was at Seton Hall in this tourney and they won outright by double digits. Battle tested Big 12 foe Tech will not go down without a fight in this one and can trade punches on offense. Also like the fact Ol Miss cannot shoot free throws, 60% their last 5 games. In a tight game that make a huge difference. Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech.
Dwayne Bryant
UAB -4.5
The public will back North Carolina here due to name recognition alone, but they're not the better team in this contest. UNC is coming off a road win at Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs were a team that was emotionally flat after being snubbed by the NCAA Selection Committee. The Blazers are anything but flat.
UAB is coming off a 20-point win over NC State (we had the Blazers in that one). Now they have their sights set on the Tar Heels, and this is where UNC's name recognition comes back to bite them. UAB would love nothing more than to lay a beating on the storied North Carolina program; the same UNC program that won the National Championship last season.
UAB is 15-3 at home this season, while UNC comes in at just 3-8 on the road. The Tar Heels are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.
UAB simply has all the edges I look for, such as defensive efficiency, 2-point shooting percentage allowed, defensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and free throw shooting. Even slight edges in each of those categories can often lead to a big win. I have the Blazers winning this one by 8, so I'll gladly lay the number with UAB.
Rocketman
Boston -115
Boston is 10-1 SU and ATS overall vs Atlanta the past 3 years. Bruins are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. Southeast. Bruins are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Thrashers are 8-17 in their last 25 games playing on 1 days rest. Thrashers are 4-10 in their last 14 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Thrashers are 5-13 in their last 18 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Thrashers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Bruins are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. Bruins are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. We'll play Boston for 5 units tonight!
Marc Lawrence
Denver -6
The Nuggets meet the Knicks in New York in a battle of teams headed in opposite during the stretch drive of the NBA campaign. With Denver 15-4 ATS as road favorites off a loss versus .360 or less opponents off a loss, and the Knicks just 1-4 ATS as home dogs in this series, look for the Nuggets to get back on the win track here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Denver.
Bob Balfe
North Carolina +4.5
North Carolina has not played well on the road this year but they have hit their stride and are going against a UAB team that played very weak competition throughout the entire season. UNC played over 10 games against NCAA Tournament teams. The Tar Heels might not be that good this year relative to the past 6 years but they are, by far, a better overall team then UAB. This will be a close game so lets take the points. Take North Carolina.
Lenny Del Genio
Denver -6.5
These are two teams in two totally different mindsets. The Knicks are clearly awful. The concept of "team" is pretty much lost on this group, which essentially is nothing more than a bunch of individuals "waiting until next year" (front office has promised to sign a major free agent in offseason), which means a massive roster overhaul. Many of the Knicks players won't even be here next season, so why should they care? They're certainly playing like it with only six wins since February 5th (15 losses). Most of those have come against the league's bottom feeders such as Philadelphia (twice), Detroit and Washington. The others were vs. Atlanta (who they seem to dominate) and Dallas (big revenge game). One team they do not play well against is Denver. The Nuggets have beaten New York four straight times, scoring at least 111 points in every game. This includes an early season 128-125 win at home as 12.5-point favorites. Carmello Anthony scored a career high 50 points in that game. As you know, every star player (LeBron, Kobe) goes off on the Knicks in MSG. Considering that earlier line, we are getting plenty of line value here. The Knicks are just 7-19 ATS when revenging a road loss. Denver gets a break here as they're not favored by double digits for the first time in four games. They are 27-10 ATS if they were a home favorite in their last two games. Coming off a loss to Milwaukee, look for the Nuggets to get off to a good start on this five-game road trip. They covered here last year in the "World's Most Famous Arena," and with Denver and Utah lurking close behind, they need this one. Denver is our NBA TV Winner.
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Denver - 6.5
4 Units Dallas -9.5
Billy Coleman
4* Pistons Under
Street Rosenthal
*200 Charlotte Bobcats -6.5
Executive
300% UAB -4.5