Master Sports
3* Princeton
Lenny Stevens
10* UConn
10* Pennsylvania
10* Butler
Power Play Wins
Seton Hall
Pacers
Milwaukee
Charlie
500* Providence @ Seton Hall Over 165
500* Dayton -11
500* Seton Hall -5
500* Duquense @ St Bonaventure Over 152
30* Rutgers +7'
20* Wright St +7'
20* Washington +4
10* Charlotte -3
UMass +9 Free Play
King Creole
2* Dayton -11.5
We're laying the lumber tonight with the host FLYERS... who have excelled in the Opening Round... AND as big chalk in the A-10 Tourney. DAYTON Is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS as double-digit favorites in this Tourney... and 8-2-1 ATS in their Opening Round game. They come in off a SHOCKING result in their last regular season game. They laid -11 points to the upstart Billikens of ST LOUIS on Saturday.... and lost OUTRIGHT at home by a score of 71-66. This is a team that does very well when playing off a loss. The FLYERS are 11-1 ATS in the last 20 years when playing off a SU home favorite loss when taking on an opponent also off a SU loss (G Washington). And as favorites in this situation, the FLYERS are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS.
First, we'll run through some Systems that pertain to the ATLANTIC 10 Conference Tournament specifically. Favorites have done very well as of late... and particularly in the Opening Round.
21-4-1 ATS: All ATLANTIC 10 Conference Tourney favorites of -13 or less points when playing off a SU loss (DAYTON). Since 2002, these teams have gone 12-2 ATS.
38-19 ATS: All ATLANTIC 10 Conference Tourney OPENING ROUND favorites.
For 'tighteners', we note that DOUBEL-DIGIT favs have gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS (DAYTON).... and a PERFECT 8-0 ATS as favs of ANY amount versus an opponent off a SUATS loss (like GW).
7-0-2 ATS since 1992: All ATLANTIC 10 Conference Tourney favs of 5 > points playing off a SU FAVORITE loss (DAYTON).
11-1 ATS since 1998: All ATLANTIC 10 Conference Tourney favorites when BOTH teams come in off a SU loss (DAYTON / G Washington).
Now, let's step back and take a look at some patterns and tendencies that apply to ALL Conference Tournaments (not just the A-10).
12-4 ATS since 1998: All OPENING ROUND teams playing off a SU loss in which they were a favorite of -8 or more points (DAYTON). Favorites of 3 > points have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS....
3-10-1 ATS since 2002: All OPENING ROUND road teams playing off a SU and ATS loss in a game in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT Underdog (G Washington). Underdogs of > 10 points in this situation have gone 1-8 ATS...
3-12 ATS since 1998: All OPENING ROUND teams playing off BB SU ATS losses as a DOG and a FAV in their last two games respectively (G Wash)... versus an opponent off a SUATS loss (DAYTON). Underdogs in this situation have gone 1-6 ATS...
Trace Adams
1000* - Boston Celtics
500* - Dayton Flyers
Hot versus red-hot tonight, as Boston comes to Milwaukee with wins in 4 in a row, while Milwaukee is fresh off their win over Cleveland to make it wins in 3 straight, and 9 of their last 10.
The Bucks are definitely a team to watch, but at a near pick, prefer the C's who have won 5 of their last 6 on the road, and have also won 7 of the last 8 in the series.
I expect Milwaukee to suffer a little bit of a let down after their huge win over Cleveland on Saturday.
Celts come through in a tough one.
1000♦ - Boston Celtics
Dayton has pretty much played themselves out of a Big Dance at-large bid unless they make a deep run in the Atlantic 10 tournament, as the Flyers come into this home date against the Colonials having lost their last pair, and 4 of their last 5.
Still, Dayton is 14-2 for the season at home, and after coming up lame over the weekend at home against St. Louis, look for the Flyers to get things righted early in this one, as Dayton is still a positive 8-5 against the spread in their home gym this season.
George Washington has dropped their last pair both straight up and against the spread, and the Colonials were also beat by double-digits earlier this year in Ohio, 66-51 as the 10 1/2-point underdog.
I'm going to lay it, and look for the Flyers to right themselves.
500♦ - Dayton Flyers
RAS
Montana/N. Colorado Under 132
Ron Raymond
Indianapolis / Philadelphia Over 211.5
Providence / Seton Hall Under 166.5
Lenny Del Genio
Rhode Island -14
The first round of the A-10 Tournament is played at the home site of the higher seeds and this will work to the benefit of the host Rams in this game. We say that because visiting St. Joe's is 0 for 6 at the betting window this season when taking double digits on the road. These teams played here two months ago and the Rhodies won 101-74 as 15-point chalk. Now, they're not even being asked to lay the same number! St. Joe's is simply not an effective offensive basketball team, averaging less than one point per possession and averaging less than 30% from three-point land. The Hawks are 2-9 ATS revenging a road loss this season. Rhode Island is our 20* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month.
Wright St +7
So far, we have seen two Conference Title games played where the top seed "did not need to win." The first occurred in the Missouri Valley with Northern Iowa winning and covering against Wichita State, 67-52. The second came last night with Gonzaga getting blown out by St. Mary's. It should be note that in that first game Northern Iowa was trailing for much of the first half and then neck and neck before putting the clamps down defensively down the stretch. So what we're saying is that the clear lack of a motivational edge has worked against the top seeds in this spot so far in the Conference Tournaments. Playing at home, Butler is being asked to lay more points than the other top seeds mentioned so far. The Bulldogs lost outright in this exact spot last year to Cleveland State. Not only is Wright State playing with double revenge tonight, but they have been an excellent bet in tournament play, going a perfect 9-0 against the spread. In the last meeting, Butler shot a ridiculous 67% from the floor. That's not happening again. Take Wright State.
Marty Otto
Big O: Butler/Wright St Over 121.5
The Duke's Sports
George Washington (+11') for 2 Units
The Colonials played well on the road after getting beaten soundly by Dayton January 20th; as a matter of fact, they went 4-1 ATS as an Atlantic 10 traveler down the stretch. GW sports a solid 5-2 ATS mark on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. On the other hand, Dayton, which has gone on a 1-4 SU skid, has failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 as chalk. Dayton has some tremendous athletes, but GW is primed to be competitive in this tournament and should cover.
HELMUT
Troy Under 140
Oakland Under 146
Wayne Root
No Limit - Rhode Island
Billionaire - Seton Hall
Millionaire - Pennsylvania
Vegas Legend - Dayton
Mike Neri
4* Butler -7
Tony George
Seton Hall -5.5
This line dropped from opening at 6 late Monday, and I like them off a win Saturday at Providence, this same team, by 8 points, look at the Fryers and count 10 losses in a row and no chance to advance against a more than decent Seton Hall team who are playing for an NCAA berth. The Fryers allowed 90 pgg their last 5 games, and I see no change from Saturday with a highly motivated Seton Hall team who is 11th in the nation in scoring. Play 1 unit on Seton Hall
Utah -3.5
The Bulls play little defense allowing their last 7 opponents over 100 points each, and I assure you Utah will score. Out of all the teams in the west Utah has maybe the most physical style of defense, and I doubt the Bulls break 95 points in this one and Utah clips the 100 mark. I will lay the points and be on the public side. Play 1 Unit on Utah.