Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Boston / Milwaukee Over 188
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over"
Ray Allen has been hot of late; he made 4-of-6 3-pointers in Sunday's come from behind victory over the Wizards.
The same can't be said about the Boston bench which scored just nine points on 3-of-21 shooting against Washington. To say Doc Rivers is displeased with this fact would be an understatement.
This team prides itself on its depth and I expect a much more concerted effort from it tonight as it looks to continue to build momentum down the stretch.
It's important to note in this case that Boston has seen the total go "over" the posted number in 7 of 12 games this year when playing the roll of underdog.
On the other side of the court: John Salmons is averaging 20.8 in his past four games and I expect the explosive forward to have another big game tonight.
Milwaukee has won three straight and 9-of-10, including Saturday’s victory against the LeBron-less Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Bucks bench will have to step up its game today in order to match what is sure to be a flurry from the Celt's.
Keep in mind that Milwaukee has seen the total go "over" the number in 16 of 26 when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: This number is simply too low as I expect both teams to come out firing on all cylinders as each tries to solidify its position heading into the playoffs; when taking into account all of the above factors, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the OVER!
Marc Lawrence
Butler -7
The Bulldogs meet the Raiders in the Horizon League championship game knowing they have defeated Wright State in each of the last six meetings in this series. Butler is also 20-2 SU and 14-6-2 ATS in games against opponents off a win of eight or more points under head coach Brad Stevens, including 8-0 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points when facing a .714 or less opponent in these games. Add to that the fact that teams in championship games with a win percentage of more than .750 that have five returning starters from last year's team are a rock-solid 12-2 ATS and Wright State's putrid 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS mark this season in games against opponents with a win percentage of .647 or more and we have all the makings of a return trip to the Big Dance for the Bulldogs. We recommend a 3-unit play on Butler.
Mike Lineback
Orlando -11.5
The Clippers don't have the heart and/or talent to be successful in this situation. They have lost their L3 games by 22, 17 & 26 points respectively, 5 of 6 games overall, and now face Orlando playing at a high level. The Magic have won 5 straight, 7 of 8, including home wins vs. Cavs & Lakers. Not to mention, they have destroyed the Clippers their L2 visits to Amway Arena (29 & 22 pts). Orlando have huge depth edge. In fact, their second unit is arguably better than LA's first unit. Hence, Orlando's role players should be able to protect and/or improve on any accumulated leads, long after LA has given up. Plus, key player Gordon may miss the game for the Clips. Orlando off yesterday & tomorrow, can give their full attention to the Clips. LA playing second road game, and front end of two back-to-backs (all on road) facing them the next 5 days. Take Orlando.
Sports Unlimited
5* Providence
3* Duquesne
Jimmy Boyd
5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5
I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight!
5* Big East Tourney *BEST BET* (ESPN U) on Providence +6.5
I really like Providence catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Friars enter this contest having lost 10 in a row so they will be very hungry. On top of that, they will be a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose here. Seton Hall, who has a chance to play itself into the NCAAB Tournament is facing far more pressure. These two teams just played each other Saturday with Seton Hall coming out on top by 12 points, but it is an extremely difficult task to win again in these kind of spots. The losing team is usually hungrier and odds makers usually overvalued the winning team as that is the one the public tends to flock to. Furthermore, it's hard to justify laying points with Seton Hall when you consider that the Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Meanwhile, the Friars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Providence.
3* A-10 Tourney Annihilator on UMass +9.5
Really think UMass isn't getting enough respect tonight when you consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, are 32-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. And there's more, the 49ers are just 8-26 ATS in their last 34 vs. the Atlantic 10, 49ers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Minutemen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Last thing, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.
VIC MONTE
500* Saint Joseph's
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
DIAMOND CONSENSUS NBA BLOWOUT WINNER
Milwaukee -1.5
Insiders Sports Network Guaranteed Selections
INSIDERS INVESTMENT NBA EASY MONEY MAKER
Milwaukee -1.5
Sports Brokers Guaranteed Selections
NBA SLAM DUNK MAJOR WAGER
Orlando -11.5
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
NBA LATE STEAM ROAD KILL(ER) WINNER
Houston -4
Underdog
UMASS
Miami Heat
Seabass
100 Weber State
50 Dayton, Under Butler
50 Clippers
50 Nashville NHL
Youngstown Connection
St Boneventure
UMass
PPP
4% Utah Jazz
4% Weber St
3% Butler
JB Sports
3* Portland