BIG AL
3* Cavaliers -7.5
MR EAST
MLB TUESDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
LA DODGERS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
3 UNITS: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -155
The LA Dodgers are off to a very slow start, especially on the road where they stand at just 5-11 for the season. The D-backs will have their ace, Dan Haren taking the hill, and he is rounding into form after a slow start, as he has allowed just 7 runs over his last 3 starts. The D-Backs have been getting some offense, and will face rookie John Ely who has been average to date. The Dodgers come into this one just 1-9 in their last 10 posted as a dog, and the D-Backs are a perfect 5-0 behind Haren in his last 5 posted as a favorite. Arizona gets the nod.
Dave Cokin
Solid Gold Play
Matchup: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CUETO, J vs. (R) MORTON, C
Play: Cincinnati (ML -120)
The Pirates are actually within hailing distance of being .500, but don't be misled. This is a bad baseball team, and the run differential on the season tells a more accurate story of their true level. But because the overall record isn't awful, the result is that there are some reasonable prices in games where the Bucs would seem to be at a distinct disadvantage. Tonight is one those scenarios. Johnny Cueto has turned into a six-inning pitcher, but with a decent bullpen to finish things up, Cueto can garner his share of wins if he's just keeps his side in the game. He's flashed his best form of the season lately, so this is not a bad time to back Cueto, especially against a soft attack that he's handled well throughout his career. Charlie Morton has saved his spot in the Pittsburgh rotation with a couple of okay efforts, but I'm not at all convinced he's turned the corner. I also like the fact Evan Meek worked a couple of innings in relief on Monday. He's been the best bullpen component for the Bucs but does not figure to see action tonight. The price here is not bad at all, and I'm backing Cueto and the Reds to earn the victory.
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Matchup: Washington at N.Y. Mets
Listed pitchers must go: (L) OLSEN, S vs. (L) NIESE, J
Play: Under (8.5 -110)
A pair of hot pitchers along with two spotty offenses and the right umpire add up to a Total selection in tonight's Nationals-Mets hookup. Neither Scott Olsen nor Jon Niese are going to be anything other than spectators come All-Star time. But both are in solid form right now. Olsen nearly no-hit the Braves last outing, and he's allowed just one earned run in his last 20 innings. Niese has come on nicely and has pitched exceptionally well at home so far this season. Neither offense is exactly sizzling right now, and John Hirschbeck and his generous strike zone are a pitcher's best friend. I don't see many runs going on the scoreboard this evening, so the Nationals-Mets play in on the Under.
James Patrick
Matchup: Boston at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland (-7.5 -110)
Boston vs. Cleveland 8:00 p.m. est. TNT (Series tied at 2-2)
The Cavaliers fill a couple of great situations in Game #5 of this Eastern Conference Semi-Final series. Home Teams,(Cleveland), off a road loss to an opponent of (10) points or more and are installed as home favorites are (74-38) ATS for an outstanding (66.1%). Also Home Teams, (Cleveland), where the Total is between (190 to 199 1/2) points, revenging a straight-up loss versus an opponent as a favorite, against an opponent off a home win by (10) points or more are (30-11) ATS for (73.2%). The numbers don't lie so It's All for One and One for All with the Cleveland Cavaliers for us here.
5* Pot of Gold #734 Cleveland Cavaliers
DAVID MALINSKY
4* NY YANKEES/DETROIT UNDER
A cool, perhaps even cold, night in Detroit with the wind blowing in from left rarely brings this kind of Total into play. But that is what happens with the starting pitchers show tags of 1-3/9.78 and 2-3/7.50. But neither Javier Vazquez nor Rick Porcello are going to remain anywhere near those production levels, and that gives us excellent value to step in here.
Vazquez is coming off 10 straight seasons in which he has made at least 30 starts, with half of them resulting in an ERA of less than 4.00, and his 2.87 ERA and 9.8 K’s per 9 were career bests LY. So it is not as though he is going to fall off the table. We can anticipate an ERA climb as he goes from a favorable park for a flyball pitcher in Atlanta to Yankee Stadium, and some tougher A.L. ballparks for his style, but we will also see that same pop from his arm, and note that even in the disastrous bottom line so far he has recorded 20 K’s in 23 IP. Now he has been skipped for a start to get his head back in order, and the combination of tonight’s weather, and a Detroit offense that is tied for 24th in the Majors in home runs, bodes well for his correction to begin. And with no fatigue issues for any key bullpen arms the latter stages are in good hands.
Then there is Rick Porcello. To go from the 14-9/3.96 of his rookie to season to the current 2-3/7.50 looks like a precipitous drop, but take a closer look. In 2009 he had 2.74 W’s per 9, that has only gone to 3.0. In 2009 he had 4.69 K’s per 9, that is actually up to 5.70. In 2009 he allowed 1.21 HR’s per 9, that is down to 0.9. And once again he is keeping the ball down in the strike zone, with 2.42 ground ball outs for every fly-out. So what has gone wrong? A little bit of baseball geometry. There are 123 pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings, and his BABIP sits at #3, a .398 rate that will play back in his favor in the innings ahead. Behind him is a bullpen that has been the best in the Major Leagues so far in 2010, and with only Joel Zumaya carrying a fatigue rating there are plenty of good options for Jim Leyland in the end-game.
PHILLY-CONNECTION
3* TB RAYS -120
NYC Sports
3 Units Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
We are not backing the Phils with Halladay blind, we see a lot here. Firstly, let’s get the pitching out of the way. Halladay (6-1, 1.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .224 BAA) who doesn’t need more accolades, shutout the Rockies allowing 2 hits in his only career appearance against the Rockies. On the other hand, Cook (1-3, 6.03 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .267 BAA) has performed horribly versus the Phils (1-5, 5.85 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 3.23 BAA). The Rockies will be without two of their best position players, Carlos Gonzalez (last day of bereavement leave) and Troy Tulowitski (thigh muscle strain) who will sit due to the expected cold weather tonight. The Phils, winners of 8 of their last 10 overall, are 13-3 against the Rockies last 16. Our only concern is that they get the full nine innings in tonight as snow is forecast late.
Great Lakes
4* Cavs
4* S Diego
3* KC
3* T Bay
Trace Adams
1000 Units Cavs
500 Units Indians
Anthony Redd
30 Dime Boston Celtics ( 1st half )
20 Dime Boston Celtics
JR O'Donnell
3* Red Sox/Toronto Jays Over 10.5
Jr. O is red hot and we will break down this baby to go over as huge power rating variance of 13 runs tonight shows a 2.5 run over lay. Toronto Jays hurler Dana Eveland will get bombed tonight in Boston as the bats are getting hot in Bean town. We note that D Eveland has been toasted in all four games against the Red Sox, going 0-2 with an 18 + ERA. We also note that the boys from Bean town are in nasty mood after that Yankees series and we will look for them to continue hitting the rock ,Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-1, 9.90 ERA) will not be the stopper tonight as the Jays will get to him. The Red Sox own a terrible bullpen 5.15 ERA among the bottom 5 in the Bigs!
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Phily -1.5 -115
1 Unit Washington +130
1 Unit Florida +105
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Celtics +7.5
5 Units Rays
4 Units Blue Jays
4 Units Cubs
Billy Coleman
3* New York Mets
3* St Louis/Houston Under 8
4* BlackHawks
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Cleveland -7.5
Scott Rickenbach
8* Vancouver vs Chicago Over
Vancouver was able to slow things down in Chicago on Sunday and they got the 4-1 win in a game that stayed under the total. We used the under in that game and we weren’t surprised by the success the Canucks had in that one as their focus was on slowing things down and they changed up their strategy plus got a huge game from goalie Roberto Luongo and that led to the win. We do not expect a repeat of that tonight. We’re not saying the Canucks won’t win but what we are saying is that we fully expect a return to the high-scoring ways that had been commonplace so far in this series. Look for the Blackhawks to make some adjustments to counterattack the new strategy that the Canucks employed in Game Five to slow down Chicago. Now, with the Hawks making the proper adjustments to free up their highly skilled forwards, and with the Canucks feeling the impact of the Sami Salo injury for a full game, look for things to return to “normal” for Vancouver in this one.
”Normal” for Canucks playoff games this post-season has been high-scoring! Vancouver’s under on Sunday was their first under since April 15th. The Canucks had gone 7-0-2 to the over prior to Game Five of this series. Also, the Blackhawks were on a 5-0-1 run to the over prior to Sunday’s loss where Chicago managed just one goal. Note that the Blackhawks are still 5-3 to the over the last three seasons when they are leading in a playoff series. Also, Chicago is 7-3 to the over in the second round of the playoffs over the last three seasons. As for the Canucks, they are 3-1 to the over the last three seasons when they are trailing in a playoff series. Also, Vancouver is 7-3 to the over in the second round of the playoffs the last three seasons. Overall, the Canucks enter this game on a 31-17 run to the over and we have seen goalie Roberto Luongo often follow up a stellar performance with a subpar one and we also know that the Blackhawks goaltending situation is far from solid. Chicago has allowed 4 goals or more in 6 of their last 11 games! Play OVER the total in Vancouver as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Kansas City vs Cleveland Over
The reason we are not specifying pitchers here is because there is a minimal chance that Jake Westbrook may not get the start for the Indians. He’s been dealing with back spasms and very nearly did not make his last start. You might remember that one from a week ago. We had a big *10* Top Play on the over in Cleveland and Westbrook struggled and the over 8.5 ended up with 13 runs! A similar run tally in today’s game would not surprise us in the least! Westbrook has a 5.74 ERA on the season and he’s only completed six innings in two of his six starts this season. He’s still trying to come back from Tommy John surgery and his back problems aren’t helping matters. Westbrook walked five batters in less than five innings in his most recent outing. Also, the Indians bullpen, likely to be very involved here, has a BAA that has it ranked 24th in the majors. Even though the reliever’s combined ERA ranks them in the middle of the pack, the opponents batting average shows that they’ve been far from dominant. The Royals have been a solid hitting team at home in recent seasons and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Westbrook and the rest of the Indian hurlers in this one. The trouble for Kansas City is their own pitching.
Brian Bannister is expected to get the start for the Royals here and he’s 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA so far this season. He’s also been hit at a .306 clip in his two home starts this season. His most recent outing, on the road, saw him allow seven earned runs in just three innings of work. Also, Bannister has as many walks as strikeouts in his last four starts. So far this season, Bannister has looked more like the 2008 version than the 2009 version as the home run ball has also been an issue for the right-hander. Bannister is supported by a Royals bullpen that ranks among the worst in the league so that is bad news as well. The Indians full season batting stats may not impress you but they have been swinging the bats better recently after a cold start to the season. The Indians suffered a two-hit effort on May 3rd but, other than that, their other 9 games in their last ten saw them average 10.6 hits per game. In fact, Cleveland enters this game having gone over the total in four straight games. Kansas City has only stayed under the total in two of their last six games. Also, the Royals are 11-3 to the over in divisional games this season and they come into this game having averaged 10.3 hits per game in their last six games. Both teams hitting well and neither team’s pitching situation looks good at all. Play OVER the total in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play selection.