Don Wallace Sports
10* Orlando -7.5
NSA
20* Celtics +7
20* Tigers -140
20* San Jose - 140
10* Montreal +140
10* Yanks-190
10* Magic/Celt Under 189
KELSO
10 Units Orlando Magic -7
ATS Financial
3 Units Orlando/Boston Over 188.5
Andy Iskoe
Angels at Rangers
Pick: Under 8.5
Jered Weaver has clearly been the Angels' most effective starter this season as has C J Wilson been for the Rangers as he's made a very successful conversion from reliever to starter. Both offenses have not been as potent as expected, especially Los Angeles, and this game should be played along the lines of last night's 4-3 game won by Texas. Both starters are capable of going deep into this contest and it would not surprise if this game was another tight contest with a "blowout" being no more than a 5-2 type final. More likely this game falls between a 6 and a 7.
David Malinsky
4* SAN DIEGO/SAN FRANCISCO OVER
To see a “6” posted for a Total on the MLB Diamonds is the kind of rarified air one usually associates with a climb into the Himalayas, and not a Jonathan Sanchez/Matt Latos matchup. But the oddsmakers were forced into a short range because these two starters have hooked up in a pair of 1-0 decisions already, and the markets are naturally using that recent history to trickle the line even lower (you can find some Over 6 at low vigorish). That brings the kind of value to get us into play as the pendulums begin to swing the other way.
Yes, these two have dominated the lineups that they are going to face tonight. But there is absolutely a diminishing returns aspect, especially since a lot of baseball geometry has been in play. When it is the third time around against a particular starter this early in the season, especially in a second quick look after Sanchez and Latos hooked up in San Francisco last week, it means that the hitters have pretty much seen the entire repertoire from both arms. And while the swings have been feeble so far, they will get better. First let’s note the favorable rides these two moundsmen have had. There are 137 pitchers that worked at least 30 innings so far, and Latos checks in at #136 and Sanchez at #134 on BABIP. And in terms of difficulty of batters faced, it is #129 for Sanchez and #115 for Latos. Their head-to-head encounters carry a lot of weight in those tables, of course, and the BABIP numbers for each could easily finished 60-70 batting average points above their current levels.
Note that if we take away the two starts vs. San Francisco it has been a 1-3/5.27 for Latos this season, in line with his 4-5/4.62 of LY. A third look in less than a month gives a significant adjustment advantage to the Giant hitters, and while added plate appearances are not as big of an edge against the heat that Sanchez brings from a contact standpoint, the Padres can be counted on to bring more patience to the plate, making his mediocre control (20 W’s in 44 IP) an issue. It does not take much to get over this low speed bump, and this time around the hitters can bring that production.
JOYCE STERLING
10* Orlando -7.5
At home the Magic are averaging 104.9 scoring, and holding teams to 92.9 points scored on defense.
On the road, the Celtics are averaging 98.4 scoring.
Orlando will now have to overcome a loss for the first time in more than six weeks when the Magic face the resurgent Celtics in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals tonight.
It was a good wake up call.
The Magic, swept Atlanta and Charlotte in the first two rounds, haven't lost consecutive home games all season. They're banking on that streak continuing heading into Game 2, or their hopes of redeeming last year's NBA Finals loss to the Lakers could be crushed
Boston Blackie
5* Celtics/Magic Over 188.5
Dave Cokin
Solid Gold Play (12-3)
Matchup: N.Y. Mets at Atlanta
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) SANTANA, J vs. (R) MEDLEN, K
Play: Atlanta (ML +105)
Johan Santana looked more like his old self last time out for the Mets. And the star southpaw also owns a nifty 2.21 career ERA against the Braves. But Santana has had absolutely not luck other than lousy against this opponent, which explains his stunning 1-5 lifetime ledger against Atlanta. The Braves are starting Kris Medlen, who I'll be counting on for a decent five or so innings before he turns matters over to the bullpen. The main focus here is on value. Yes, it's Santana for the Mets but they're an awful road team. Going back to last season, they're a pitiful 17-42 away from home. The Braves have been playing good ball at home. This is another example of an overadjusted price based solely on the starting pitchers, and it's where I become compelled to grab a very advantageous price with the underdog. Go with the Braves to get past the Mets tonight.
Wunderdog
5 units Celtics / Magic Under 189
We were on the UNDER in game one and that bet was a victory by the end of the first quarter and we are on it again tonight. I expect the Magic to come out on a mission tonight. The Magic turns to defense when the games begin to get important, and are 26-9 to the UNDER after a straight-up loss and 38-12-1 to the UNDER after an ATS loss. Boston is now 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 Conference Finals, and eight of the last nine between these clubs have failed to reach the total. Im on the UNDER here.
Erin Rynning
Magic Under 189
The Duke's Sports
Boston Under (189) for 3 Units
This series has gone 1-8 O/U in its last 9 games and value remains with the "under". In Game 1, the Celtics shot a healthy 45% from the field, including 20 points on fast breaks; they connected on 43% from beyond the arc and made 77% of their free throws - healthy shooting numbers. On the other hand, the Magic shot a respectable 42% from the floor, made 73% of free throws, but fell flat from the perimeter at 23%. By comparison, these shooting percentages were similar to Game 1 of the Suns/Lakers Western Conference Finals yesterday. And we know that game soared over the posted total; however, the Suns /Lakers got 206 shots off compared to just 187 shots off by the Celtics/Magic. And both teams went to the charity stripe in similar fashion - low 50s. Point being that the Celtics/Magic series is at a much slower pace and should slow down even more tonight; after all, the Magic doesn't take lightly the 20 fast break points given up on their home floor. The Magic are 18-40 O/U vs a team with a winning % above .600. Boston is 2-8 O/U in the Conference Finals. "Under" the call.
Matt Fargo
10* Magic -7.5
Bob Balfe
Phillies/Pirates Under 8.5
If this game is not rained out, this is a very high total for these two quality pitchers. Zack Duke has struggled this year but, in cold and sloppy weather conditions, the ball should stay inside the ball park. I do not see a lot of runs being scored on such a miserable day. Pittsburgh will be lucky if they can put up more than one run in the entire game. This total has tremendous value, being at least 1.5 runs too high. Take the Under.
Jeff Benton
20 DIME: ORLANDO MAGIC
I’m going with the old NBA Playoff zigzag theory. Not only do I believe the Magic will show up with a much better (and complete) effort than they did in Game 1, but I expect an emotional letdown from Boston, which has to be feeling pretty good about things right now after knocking off LeBron and the Cavaliers and stealing Game 1 in Orlando.
Besides, when you look inside the boxscore of Game 1, you see that Orlando played about as poorly as a team can play through three quarters (the Magic were down by 20 points at one point in the second half and trailed 74-58 going into the fourth) and yet still only lost by four points. The Magic ended up with just one less field goal than Boston overall (33-32), one less three-pointer (6-5) and one less free throw (20-19). And Orlando actually dominated the glass (45-38 rebounding edge overall; 15-7 rebounding edge on the offensive end), had more blocked shots (8-5) and more points in the paint (44-38).
So how did the Magic lose Game 1 – their first loss since April 2 and just their fourth loss in their last 29 games? Turnovers. They committed 18 of them (the vast majority in the first three quarters). I chalk that up to two things: 1) rustiness (they had six days off between sweeping the Hawks and Game 1 against the Celtics), and 2) overconfidence (they had rolled through their first two playoff opponents, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, and they had won 14 in a row overall, going 13-1 ATS). In Game 1, Orlando finally got punched in the mouth and didn’t immediately know how to react.
Well, the Magic clearly got over the rustiness in the fourth quarter Sunday, and the Celtics clearly have their attention. And the bottom line is if the Magic play with the intensity, focus and sense of purpose for 48 minutes tonight they way it did in the final 12 minutes in Game 1, this is going to be a double-digit rout.
A few things to keep in mind: Orlando is still 41-9 SU in its last 50 games, including 28-4 in its last 32 (23-8-1 ATS). The Magic are still 17-2 in their last 19 home games (13-5-1 ATS), including 11-1 in the last 12 (8-3-1 ATS). During their 41-9 run, they haven’t once had consecutive defeats, and only once in their 28-4 run have they had consecutive non-covers.
Additionally, while the Celtics have won four in a row SU and ATS, you have to go back to late November/early December for the last time Boston won five straight games (that was an 11-game winning streak). And the Celtics’ last five-game ATS winning run came early on in that 11-game winning streak (from Nov. 27-Dec. 4).
Finally, if you believe Orlando is going to win this game but you’re a little skittish about whether the Magic will do so by margin, consider this: The winner has covered the pointspread in 22 consecutive Boston games (including all 12 playoff games) and the winner is 16-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 17 games.
Lay the chalk, and look for the Magic to improve greatly on their 5-for-22 three-point shooting effort in Game 1 and roll to a 15-point win.