The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
MUST GO 2-0 BASEBALL PARLAY OF THE DAY
CHICAGO CUBS w/SILVA -110
NY YANKEES w/SABATHIA -175
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
STAT MASTER WIZARD BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
NY METS and ATLANTA BRAVES UNDER 7.5
Teddy Covers
Bos/Orl Over
Tex/LA Under
Executive
250% Magic
300% Rangers
250% Padres
Anthony Redd
15 Dime Celtics
Tim Trushel
20* Oakland Under
Phillies Under
Cubs Under
Magic Under
Scott Rickenbach
8* Philadelphia / Montreal Under
The first game between these teams snuck over the total but, keep in mind, Montreal was shutout and the Flyers only had 25 shots on goal in the entire game. In other words, it was somewhat of a “fortunate” over and we feel that is giving us some line value with the under here in Game Two. For one thing, we fully expect the Canadiens to tighten things up in goal after that horrific performance on Sunday. Note that Jaroslav Halak was absolutely a key performer in goal for the Habs when they rallied to upset the Capitals in the first round and the Penguins in the second round. Also, Montreal is 15-9 to the under this season when they are off of a game where they allowed four goals or more. Additionally, the Canadiens are 4-2 to the under this season when they are trailing in a playoff series. Also, though you might expect their offense to bounce back after being shutout on Sunday, note that Montreal is 12-7 to the under this season when they were held to one goal or less in their prior game.
As for the Flyers, will their offensive “flurry” continue after their huge performance in Game One? The odds are against it. Note that Philadelphia is 18-12 to the under this season when they are off of a game where they scored four goals or more. Also, Flyers goalie Michael Leighton has simply been superb since taking over for the injured Brian Boucher in Game Five of the Flyers series with the Bruins. Note that Leighton has a 1.11 GAA so far in this postseason and he is a stellar 9-2 in all his games in Philly this season. Look for another strong performance from the Flyers netminder and look for the Canadiens netminder to get right back on track. Halak is 4-0 and has allowed a total of just 7 goals the last four times he’s lost in these playoffs. In other words, in the game following a loss, Halak and his Habs teammates have absolutely beared down and come up with a strong effort and we expect no less here. The end result should be a tight-checking, low-scoring game here. Play UNDER the total in Philadelphia as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* Orlando / Boston Over
The first game in this series stayed under the total but the teams combined for 107 points in the 2nd half. Don’t be surprised if some of that “pacing” carries over to this 2nd game in the series. Also, we expect the Magic to shoot much better and push the tempo much more than they did in Game One when they were held to just 41.6% from the field. Also, the 22.7% that the Magic shot from three point land in Game One is highly unlikely to be repeated. Orlando is known for knocking down their threes and this is especially true at home. It seems like there was some rust from the Magic in Game One (as we expected – we played Boston) and Orlando is likely to shoot much better in Game Two. Also, the Magic did grab 15 offensive rebounds on Sunday and those second chance scoring opportunities are going to start to pile up in Game Two as a result of Orlando’s aggression on the glass. The Magic are fired up and ready to respond after losing Game One and, recent history shows, that is likely to result in an over. The Magic are 7-4 to the over this season when they are revenging a home loss. Also, Orlando was 5-1 to the over in the conference finals before Sunday’s game stayed under the total.
As for the Celtics, they are 3-1 to the over this season, and 70-48 to the over since 1996, when they are installed as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points! Orlando is going to respond here and, while the Celtics defense is solid, Boston is going to face a flurry of shots as the Magic know that they must “force the pace” if they’re going to even this series up at a game apiece. The Magic found out in the first half of Game One that they can’t afford to allow Boston to slow things down, dictate the pace, and turn the match-up into a half-court game. The Magic have to run and create opportunities in transition as they know that is the best way to give this Celtics defense some match-up problems. Look for a huge effort from the home team in this one but, note that Boston has averaged 99 points per game in their last 11 games in this post-season. Rajon Rondo has proven to be a very valuable asset and this has added to the Celtics Big Three of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce. That means another big offensive performance is on tap from the Celtics here and, with a faster pace being played all the way through game two (unlike game one where the pace didn’t quicken until the second half) this one is destined to fly over the total. Play OVER the total in Orlando as an *8* Regular Play selection
ASA
3* Atlanta -105 vs. NY Mets
Johan Santana is often considered one of the better pitchers in baseball but so far this season has not looked the part. His road ERA this season is 5.09 and while that number is inflated based on one awful outing in Philadelphia he has been far less dominant overall than expected. His strikeout numbers are down a bit from his normal averages and his ERA in night games in 5.82. While Santana still has to be considered a quality pitcher he is not living up to his valuation, and the Mets lineup is often not there to support him.
New York enters this game with a 5-12 road record yet will play as favorites in this match-up due to the valuation of Santana. While the general public might view this match-up as a cheap price on Santana, in reality it is a very favorable price to take the Braves. Atlanta is 10-6 at home and after early season struggles on offense The Braves are putting it all together. In the last nine games Atlanta has scored 57 runs and the wins are piling up as the team has climbed back into the NL East picture. In home games the Braves are hitting .270 compared with the Mets hitting just .218 in road games this season.
While the Mets swept the first series between these teams in 2010, the Braves dominated the series last season. Atlanta closed 2009 having won eight consecutive games against the Mets and the Braves beat Santana twice last season. The Mets won all three games in the first series between the teams in New York but the Mets scored just nine runs in those three games. The Mets are hitting just .244 against right-handed pitching in the last ten games and New York entered this series having lost seven of the previous eight games despite being favored here.
Kris Medlen is a highly regarded young pitcher for Atlanta and while he has made just one start this season he has pitched extremely well in mainly a relief role. Medlen has struck out 20 while walking just three and his ERA is 2.35. The Atlanta bullpen has performed admirably this season and this should be a good situation for the Braves to bounce back after a narrow loss on Monday. New York had just five hits last night but still managed to win as Atlanta burned scoring chances by hitting into three double plays.
Cincinnati Kid
Celtics +7
Coming right back with the Celtics in Game 2 as the Game 1 OUTRIGHT win was no surprise...history books indicate the Host will have lingering effects from their 8 game post-season winning streak snapped...Dogs in Game 2 are 22-13 ATS on the blind adn 8-4 ATS off BB SU wins...Clubs clinching a Conf Finals ticket on the road (Round 2 win away from home) are 3-11 ATS in Game 2 as hosts and 4-10 ATS off a DD ATS loss in Game 1...Eastern Conf clubs are 4-12 ATS as Hosts in Game 2 of the Conf Finals and 1-6 off a DD ATS loss - Boston 4-1 in Round 3 vs. non-division clubs and clubs off a Dog role in Game 1 - a Fav role and a Dog role in the previous round are 10-2 ATS S'92 including 6-0 ATS dogs of 6 or more points...not to mention HF's scoring less than 90 in Game 1 are 2-7 ATS in Game 2...teams favored in their L3 games and playing Game 2 Rou~nd 3 are 2-10 ATS and 1-7 ATS off a DD ATS loss..
Marc Lawrence
3* Orlando Magic -7.5
POWER PLAY WINS
Texas Rangers -125
YOUNG GUNS SPORTS
4* Boston Celtics
Dwayne Bryant
Boston +7
The Celtics are simply "in the zone" right now. They finished off King James and the Cavs with three straight wins and they stunned Orlando in Game 1 of this series. Boston has allowed no more than 88 points on this four-game win streak while allowing 40.4% shooting in the four games combined. The Celtics are playing top-notch defense and I always like backing a solid defense in the NBA simply because shooting comes and goes.
The betting public will be all over Orlando tonight with the thinking that they must win this game. And while the Magic very well could win tonight, they'll need to get a bit of a margin to cost us this play. Considering how well Boston is playing right now, I don't see the Magic being able to pull away tonight. The C's have that championship look and I don't expect any let up by them tonight. Take Boston.
HOT SHOT SPORTS
3* Boston Celtics
4* KC Royals
3* NY Mets
3* Seattle Mariners
3* Boston Red Sox Over
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
XXXXX-LARGE NBA PLAYOFF OFFSHORE LATE STEAM WINNER
Boston +7
XXXX-LARGE PRIVATE PLAY MLB TOTALS TERMINATOR
LA ANGELS and TEXAS UNDER 8.5