Chris Jordan
200* Houston/Brewers Over
100* Blue Jays
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Chi. White Sox at Cleveland
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PEAVY, J vs. (R) TALBOT, M
Play: Chi. White Sox (ML -125)
I think you would have to classify Jake Peavy's season to date as a disappointment. But the hard throwing righty has thrown it better lately and he's in good position to snare a win tonight. Mitch Talbot has done some good work for the Indians, but his peripheral numbers indicate strongly that he'd due for a big crash. Talbot has a disturbing 24/20 BB/K ratio in his 53 innings of work. That's a fairly high BB rate combined with an inability to get punchouts. So he's survived but his strand rate is due for a bump, and I expect the losses to start piling up. This is basically a top of the rotation guy against one from the back end. Beyond that, the Indians are an incredibly bad team. Going back to last season, they have now dropped 53 of their last 76 games, and they're on a 2-10 skid at home. The Chisox are no bargain on the road, but they own plenty of edge tonight and should get the win.
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Matchup: L.A. Lakers at Phoenix
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Tue)
Play: L.A. Lakers (PK +101)
I was on the wrong side of the Game Three contest between the Lakers and Suns. I'll admit to being surprised at how soft the Lakers were on defense in this game, pretty much allowing the Suns to dictate the tempo on their home court. That's a good way to guarantee a loss, and that's precisely what happened to the Lakers. Lesson learned, or at least I'm expecting that to be the case. The Lakers do not want this to turn into a tense two out of three series, so they will treat this as their single biggest game of the season. The Suns have the guts to stay with LA, but not the height nor the ability to get the big stops. I don't see any way the Phoenix side will lay down here, as they have momentum and confidence. But look for the class to show tonight, and back the Lakers to notch the vital Game Four win and cover.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Los Angeles (-1) over Phoenix
Los Angeles has won 19 of the last 20 games when playing on a Tuesday and they have also won 17 of the last 20 games when the total posted is greater than 210 points. Los Angeles has won 13 of the last 14 games coming off three or more OVER the totals and they are averaging over 116 points a game on offense over the last 5 games.
Bobby Maxwell
300 Units NY Yankees
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Suns
FoxSheets
Super Situations
Play Against - Home teams (MINNESOTA) poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
72-42 since 1997. ( 63.2% | 35.6 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.6 units )
Play Against - Road teams (OAKLAND) after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, in May games
49-21 since 1997. ( 70.0% | 26.9 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% | -3.6 units )
Situational Power Trends
TEXAS is 79-43 (+39.4 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (6.0) , OPPONENT (5.2)
Super Situations
LAL at Suns
Play Under - Any team after 5 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game
125-71 since 1997. ( 63.8% | 46.9 units )
12-6 this year. ( 66.7% | 5.4 units )
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (PHOENIX) good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots
124-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.0% | 52.9 units )
36-10 this year. ( 78.3% | 8.9 units )
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games
398-256 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.9% | 116.4 units )
43-39 this year. ( 52.4% | 0.1 units )
igz1 sports
3* Florida -130
NSA
20* Lakers -1
20* Yanks -120
20* Rays -120
Stephen Nover
15 Dime Suns
10 Dime Arizona
Anthony Redd
15 Dime Lakers 1st half
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Chi White Sox
Brian Edwards
Lakers at Suns
Pick: Under 222
I had the 'under' in Game 3 and it appeared poised to cash in the final minute until Jason Richardson shot a three early in the shot clock that caught nothing but the bottom of the net. Then all we needed was a Lakers' miss as they started their possession with 25 seconds left. If they miss, Phoenix runs out the clock for an 'under' winner. Instead, Pau Gasol gets a putback and the 'over' hits for the the third time in this series. With the total now up to 222 from 210.5 in Game 1, we think it's 'under' time again. This time around, however, we're going to be correct with a winner.
Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd
5* Game 4 *BEST BET* on Lakers -1
We cashed in with the Suns in Game 4 in their return home as I expected them to play better defense and to feed off the energy of their home crowd. That's exactly what happened, but there were some aberrations in Game 3 that lead me to believe that the Lakers will win tonight. First off, Robin Lopez scored 20 points, nearly 12 above his average. Secondly Amare Stoudemire scored 42 points, nearly 19 over his average. Lastly, the Lakers committed 17 turnovers and the Suns only committed 7. I don't expect Lopez and Stoudemire to have the same kind of nights in Game 4 and I don't expect the Suns to win the turnover battle so convincingly. With these numbers returning closer to normalcy tonight, I think the Lakers will prevail. Remember, LA has had the Suns' number, winning 11 of 15 meetings over the last 3 seasons and covering the spread in 10 of those games. I addition, Nash played a few more minutes that he is accustomed to playing and he was further banged up in Game 3, suffering a broken nose. I don't see him being quite as fresh and effective tonight either. The favorite has covered the number in the last 4 meetings and I look for this trend to continue.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Suns +1.5
4 Units Red Sox +105
4 Units Twins +105
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units LA Lakers/Phoenix Over 221
1 Unit LA Dodgers +105
1 Unit Boston/Tampa Under 8