Jeff Benton
20 Dime - LA Lakers
10 Dime - SL Cardinals
Lakers
I said it yesterday in my analysis on the Celtics, and I’ll say it again here with respect to the Lakers: nothing changes. Even though – like Boston at Cleveland in Game 1 – L.A. barely missed getting the spread-cover against the Jazz in their series opener, it doesn’t change the fact that the Lakers SHOULD have covered that number in Game 1. And to be getting L.A., which continues to have huge matchup edges against Utah, at a reduced price in Game 2 is a gift I’m not going to pass up.
Look, if you watched Game 1 you know I was spot-on with my analysis that the Jazz just cannot handle the Lakers’ size up front. Pau Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and five blocks in the 104-99 win, while Andrew Bynum (eight points, 10 boards in less than 25 minutes of action) and Lamar Odom (nine points, 12 rebounds in 31 minutes) nearly had double-doubles, as L.A. had a 14-point lead at one point in the first half and was still up double-digits in the third quarter.
L.A.’s problem – and it’s been a problem the entire playoffs – has been its bench. The big lead evaporated when Gasol and Kobe Bryant (31 points) went to the sidelines. And beyond Odom, four other Lakers contributed just 13 points in 35 minutes of action, and when those four players were on the court, L.A. got outscored by 13 points. After the game, Gasol, Kobe and Lakers coach Phil Jackson pretty much called out the bench in the media and told them to step up. I expect a positive response to that challenge tonight.
I also expect Jackson and Bryant to make the necessary adjustments to at least slow down Jazz point guard Deron Williams (24 points, 8 assists in Game 1). You’re not going to stop Williams as he’s just too good of a player (and he’s been outstanding this entire postseason), but you can bet the All-Star will see some different looks tonight.
Finally, even though the Jazz got inside the number in Game 1, they still lost for the 19th time in the last 25 meetings with the Lakers. They’ve still lost nine of the last 12 playoff games to the Lakers. They’ve still lost 15 straight games in Los Angeles. And they’re still just 9-15-1 ATS during this 25-game stretch of games with the Lakers, including 4-11 ATS in the Staples Center.
What’s more, Sunday’s result was only the second time in those 19 losses to L.A. that the Jazz fell by fewer than seven points. And it was just the fourth time in those 19 contests that the Lakers failed to win by double digits.
One last thing: Do you know how many times in their 6-19 funk against Los Angeles that the Jazz covered the spread in back-to-back meetings? Twice. You know how many times they’ve covered in consecutive games in L.A. during this stretch? Never. In fact, you have to go back to the 2004-05 season for the last time Utah got the cash in back-to-back visits to Staples. And in the last two playoff meetings with the Jazz, the Lakers won Game 2 at home by near identical scores: 120-110 in 2008, 119-109 last year.
Big-time statement game from the world champs here. Lay the chalk and look for an easy double-digit win!
Cardinals
First off, let’s face facts: The Cardinals (18-8) are a better team the than the Phillies (14-11) right now. St. Louis is better on the road (8-5) than Philly is at home (5-5), and the Cardinals’ pitching (2.52 starters’ ERA; 2.74 bullpen ERA) is vastly superior to the Phillies’ (4.11 starters’ ERA; 4.46 bullpen ERA).
Tonight is another case of a massive pitching mismatch. Oh sure, the names on the backs of the jerseys – Wainwright and Hamels – suggest this is an even contest on the mound, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA; Hamels is 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Wainwright has allowed 34 baserunners and one home run in 38 innings; Hamels has allowed 45 baserunners and seven home runs in 30 2/3 innings.
Wainwright has pitched at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts since last season, and even better than that, he’s had 24 quality starts in his last 25 games since the middle of last June, giving up two earned runs or fewer 22 times.
Hamels has just one quality start in his last 12 trips to the mound, and during this stretch, the lefty has given up at least four runs eight times and pitched less than six innings seven times.
The Cardinals have won 37 of Wainwright’s last 52 starts overall, 20 of his last 26 starts on the road and 15 of his last 18 against N.L. East teams. The Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels’ last seven starts at home.
Lastly, I look for Wainwright to have a LITTLE extra motivation tonight. That’s because after dominating the Phillies in three starts in 2007 (he went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA), he got knocked around the yard exactly one year ago by Philadelphia, giving up seven runs in six innings of a 10-7 home loss. It was Wainwright’s worst start of 2009, and you KNOW he hasn’t forgotten it.
Throw in the fact that Hamels has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in his last five starts against St. Louis spanning 25 innings (5.04 ERA), and the Cardinals offer tremendous value tonight at this dirt-cheap price.
Jimmy Boyd
5* LA Lakers
4* Mets Under 9
3* Tampa Bay Rays
Tim Trushel
20* Red Sox Under
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Jazz +6
5 Units Padres
4 Units Blue Jays
Al DeMarco
15 Dime 2-Team Teaser Los Angeles and Orlando
5 Dime Boston Red Sox - 1.5
Nelly
Jazz / Lakers Under 199.5
Both Utah and Los Angeles have been ‘over’ teams so far in the playoffs but the ‘under’ had hit in seven straight meetings between these teams before sneaking just ‘over’ in game 1. The ‘under’ is 12-5 in the last 17 home games for Los Angeles and the Lakers do not get enough credit defensively. Los Angeles allowed just 96 points per game for the season and the ‘under’ was 25-19-1 in Los Angeles this year. Los Angeles had some defensive lapses in meaningless games to close the regular season so the numbers should actually be even stronger towards the ‘under’. Los Angeles had a very efficient offensive game in game 1 and the defensive intensity should be turned up a notch on both sides. Utah has scored 100 points against the Lakers just once in the last eight meetings between these teams and there has been curious adjustments on this total line, giving more credence to the possibility of a low scoring game
KELSO
10 Units Orlando Magic -9
3 Units Utah Jazz +5.5
Jimmy Boyd
5* LA Lakers
4* Mets Under 9
3* Tampa Bay Rays
Disregard, not today's plays.
Jimmy Boyd-CORRECT PLAYS
5* under/ Lakers
4* Phillies
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Cardinals -105
The Cardinals have been on fire to start the season, particularly due to great pitching from Wainwright. Philadelphia has a good pitcher in Hamels, but he clearly has faded since his dominate performances in the World Series a few years ago. Look for the Wainwright to pitch another gem and Hamels to struggle against a potent Cardinal offense. Take St. Louis.
SUPER SPORTS GROUP
9* Braves -108
8* Tigers +123
7* Detroit/Minny Under 9.5
1* 3 Team Parlay
Royals+169
Mets +122
Cleveland +112
Tony George
1 Unit San Diego Padres
Teddy Covers
Royals
Astros
Jays/Indians under 8.5
The Duke's Sports
Houston (-114) for 2.5 Units
Houston, one of the lowest run producing teams int he league, should snap out of their funk here against Yankees' cast-off - Ian Kennedy. Kennedy won last week at Chicago. It was his first win as a starter in years, and he gave up 4 earned runs in the process. We'll look for Houston to jump on him and the sluggish AZ bullpen (6.25 ERA last 10). The D'backs will have a hard time producing runs vs Roy Oswalt; after all, Oswalt is 10-1 in team starts vs AZ with a 1.96 ERA; moreover, at home vs Arizona, Oswalt sports a dominant 0.87 ERA. Oswalt has given up no more than 3 runs in each of his last 5 starts this season. He is also 10-4 following a quality start in his last outing. With AZ a sluggish 0-5 in game 2 after a win, this is a good spot for Houston to get untracked.
Scott Delaney
10 Dime Lakers
Upon winning Game 1 of this series, the Lakers upped their dominance of this team to 19-6 the last 25 meetings, and they've now won 15 straight inside of Staples. Los Angeles has also gone an impressive 38-7 at home, outscoring the opposition by more than eight points per game (103.5-94.8).
It's that type of stifling defense that has impressed me with this Lakers team, as it's been incredibly tenacious and dominating because of the transitional effects it can have. Los Angeles' defense held the Jazz to one field goal in the final 4:10 of Game 1, while Showtime pulled away to secure the win.
I see the Lakers doing much of the same tonight, that they've done all season to dominate this team, and move out to a 2-0 series lead.
Checking the betting numbers, the Jazz are on ATS slides of a meager 2-6 as road underdogs, 4-8 on the road against teams with winning home records and 5-18 as underdogs in this range.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are on a 12-6 ATS run in conference semifinal games, and have now won three straight playoff contests (2-1 ATS), and it are 4-0 at home in the playoffs (3-1 ATS).
Lay the chalk here.