Jeff Benton
25 Dime Illinois
10 Dime NJ Nets
ILLINOIS
Both North Carolina and Illinois stumbled through incredibly disappointing seasons last year, with both winding up in the NIT. Well, through the first three weeks of this season, it’s apparent that one of these storied programs is poised for a huge bounce-back season … and it’s not North Carolina!
After opening up with easy wins over Lipscomb and Hofstra, the Tar Heels suffered consecutive upset losses to Minnesota (72-67) and Vanderbilt (72-65) in Puerto Rico, then returned to Chapel Hill and barely got past UNC-Ashville (nearly blowing a 22-point lead) and College of Charleston (UNC gave up 19 offensive rebounds and needed a 12-2 second-half run to put Charleston away 74-69, falling way short as 14-point home favorite).
North Carolina’s problem? It is relying heavily on a bevy of freshmen that form a recruiting haul that’s widely considered one of the best ever. Well, talented as they may be, freshmen are still freshmen, and it takes time for them to adjust to a higher level of play. Just ask Harrison Barnes, not only the most highly-touted youngster in Roy Williams’ stable but so good that he was tabbed a preseason All-American (the first freshman to ever earn such an accolade). Barnes missed on nine of 12 field-goal attempts and finished with just eight points against Charleston on Sunday, dropping his shooting average to 35.2 percent.
Meanwhile, Illinois has a team that’s got just as much talent as North Carolina, but has a ton more experience and a lot more depth. Take senior guard Demetri McCarney, who averages 15 ppg, leads the nation with 54 assists and is averaging nearly four assists to every one turnover. Fellow guard Brandon Paul is averaging 11.4 ppg and leads the team with 16 steals.
McCarney and Paul are two of five players who are averaging more than 10 ppg for Illinois, which has slipped up just once this season (a 90-84 overtime loss to Texas in the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden last week). Illinois followed that defeat with three straight wins, and of the Illini’s six victories this season, five have been by 14 points or more (including four by 20-plus points).
Illinois has won 16 straight regular-season non-conference home games, including four wins this year by an average of 35 ppg (80-55) while shooting 53.1 percent and holding visitors to just 34.4 percent (26 percent from three-point range).
Bottom line: At some point this season, North Carolina – which was ranked as high as No. 8 two weeks ago and is no longer in the Top 25 – very well may pull it together and be a force come March. But right now, the young Tar Heels are not ready for prime time. Throw in the fact that UNC has failed to cover in 11 of its last 15 games as an underdog and nine of its last 11 as a road ‘dog of less than seven points, and I’ll confidently side with the more talented and experienced home team in this one.
NETS
Give the Knicks credit, as they’ve ripped off six wins in their last seven games to pull even on the season at 9-9 (and they’re on a 7-1 ATS run, too). However, New York’s hot streak comes with an asterisk, as the six victories were all by nine points or fewer (average margin of victory of 6.3 ppg), including Sunday’s 125-116 double-overtime win at Detroit.
In fact, the Knicks have played 11 straight games decided by single digits, and – what do you know – the underdog is 10-1 ATS over this stretch, with New York going 1-4 SU and ATS as a favorite (the Knicks have actually lost five of six outright as a chalk). The visitor is also 9-2 SU and ATS in the Knicks’ last 11 games, and for the season New York has lost five of seven at The Garden (2-4-1 ATS).
The Nets come into this one off Sunday’s impressive 98-96 upset win over the Blazers as a four-point underdog, giving them four spread-covers in their last five games and nine in their last 14 (going 9-3 ATS as an underdog over this span). And aside from a 102-86 loss in Philadelphia in its last recent game on the highway Friday night, New Jersey has been quite competitive on the road this year, with outright wins at the Cavs and Clippers, along with a six-point loss at Boston, a four-point loss at Denver and a five-point loss at Sacramento.
These neighboring rivals split their four meetings last year, with New Jersey cruising to outright upsets at home (104-95) and at The Garden (113-93). That puts the underdog at 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head series clashes. Chalk another up to the puppy tonight, as the Nets not only cover, they get the outright win.
Crown City Sports
3* Atlanta/Colorado under 5.5
3* Wake Forest +2
3* Syracuse -17
3* Mississippi +3
ANTHONY REDD
20 Dime Eastern Washington
2 MINUTE WARNING
10 Dime Indiana Pacers
CHUCK O'BRIEN
20 Dime Cornell
10 Dime Ohio State
10 Dime Michigan
BRETT ATKINS
20 Dime LA Lakers
DEREK MANCINI
20 Dime Florida State
JOEL TYSON
20 Dime Boston Celtics
10 Dime Northwestern
JAY MCNEIL
10 UTEP
TRACE ADAMS
1000* Wake Forest
MATT RIVERS
200,000* Ole Miss
BIG AL
CBB GOM - Eastern Washington
Tim Trushel
20* Sacramento Kings Under
Sam Clayton
3* UNC at Illinois -5
If I've argued it once, I've argued it a thousand times: I'm confident that I know this Illinois basketball team better than almost anybody. They were fantastic fade materal two years ago and if you remember correctly, I said last season that the Illini were on the cusp of something special in 2010-11 --- and the time is now. Bruce Weber has one of the deepest, most talented and experienced teams in the entire country, yet nobody is talking about them. All I hear is Ohio State this, Michigan State that. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge advocate of the conference as a whole, but l cannot fathom this line or the underration of the best Illinois basketball team since their national runner-up season six years ago. Weber returns all five starters from last year's ballclub and Bill Cole is now seeing lesser minutes because of the insertion of Brandon Paul into the lineup and the emergence of freshman Jereme Richmond. It didn't take long for Weber to find fluidity with the rotation as he uses nine players, five of which are averaging double digits.
Meanwhile, in the blue corner, stands one of the most overrated teams in college basketball. Sure, on paper, all the McDonald's All-Americans and ESPN Top 100 recruits look immensely intriguing. Still, you simply cannot trust this unproven ballclub at one of the country's toughest venues against an upperclass-heavy Illinois team. These aren't the Tar Heels of 2005 or 2009 and while they aren't in full re-building mode, they are not ready to compete and hang with any Top 20 team. This opening number is nothing more than respect for Carolina, a program that has produced two national championships in the last six seasons. And boy is this bunch a far cry from those teams.
First off, the Heels don't even have a true go-to scorer. Tyler Zeller is averaging 15.5 points per game, but against who? How many true centers has he faced in Carolina's early going? The raw Nigerian kid from Vanderbilt that had ZERO footwork? The poor sophomore center from UNC-Asheville that played alongside four guards and got no defensive help on the low block? Pleaaase. Then there's pre-season All-American Harrison Barnes. Yes, he's really lived up to his hype scoring 11 points a game on 35 percent shooting . . . yawn. Illinois' sound backcourt will offer plenty of athleticism and length to counter Barnes, I can assure you that. You have to believe the Illini coaching staff has been studying film from the Minnesota game wherein Tubby Smith crafted a defensive game plan targeting Barnes (he scored 6 points). I'm not doubting Carolina's talent or speed because there is tons of potential. But this team is not executing, they aren't taking care of the orange and they are not going to cruise by a defensive-minded Illinois team at the Assembly Hall.
From a matchup standpoint, I love the way the Illinois guards matchup with the Tar Heel backcourt, especially at the point guard position. Demetri McCamey has transformed into one of the most versatile pointmen in America while his counterpart Larry Drew II is struggling to execute and make plays for his offense. He's still playing timid, he wants absolutely no part in scoring the rock (3.8 ppg) and his 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio is faaaar from special. Still, like most Illinois games, this one will be decided defensively, where I trust McCamey, Richardson, Paul and defensive specialist Cole to make things difficult for Barnes and Dexter Strickland.
In the trenches, Carolina has zero bangers on the low block. Zeller is an adept shooter, but a physical player he is not. Then there's John Henson, who is lucky to weigh 200 pounds dripping wet. The Carolina bigs will have a very difficult time establishing position on Mike Tisdale (7-1, 250) and Mike Davis (6-9, 225) not to mention Weber has the luxury of inserting Meyers Leonard (7-0, 240) into the fold to make the battle even harder. Illinois knows that defense --- notably winning the Windex --- will be the key. It's no coincidence the only game the Illini dropped this year was against Texas at the Garden where the orange and blue split the rebounding column and fell apart defensively in the second half letting the Horns shoot 44 total free throws.
Home court and team depth cannot be underestimated. Illinois has all the ingredients for a deep run in the NCAA tournament and they play exceptional basketball in Champaign. In past Big Ten/ACC Challenges at home, the Illini have knocked off higher ranked teams in 2002 (92-65 win over #12 UNC) and 2005 (91-73 W over #1 Wake) and ironically enough, the player matchups and personnel are eerily similar. Then there's the fact that the Illini bench has outscored the opposing bench by an average 15 points. Illinois is a very smart, very fundamental basketball team. They have an exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio, they are long and athletic on the defensive side of the ball and on offense they work the ball around for high percentage shots. I like a very decisive win for Illinois in front of a crazy, orange clad Assembly Hall.
SportsKingz
Ohio St. -4
Lenny Del Genio
Boston -6.5
This is an excellent spot to play on the Celtics, who come in with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-4 SU (tied with Orlando). Back on October 27th, they lost here in Cleveland as they found themselves in a far less fortuitous situation. They had just beaten the Heat on opening night the night prior and were facing the Cavs in their home opener. Not surprisingly, because this is the NBA, they lost 95-87 as four-point favorites. Tonight, they come in well rested as they have not played since a 110-101 victory over Toronto last Friday, their third straight win overall. One of the best times to jump on Boston is when they are playing with revenge, particularly when on the road. They are 21-7 ATS the last two-plus seasons away from Boston and seeking revenge, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when the prior loss came on the road as it did here. Surprisingly, the Boston offense has been quite potent the last two weeks with four games of 110 or more points scored. Not surprisingly, the defense has also been solid as in the two games prior to Friday's win over the Raptors saw the team surrender just 76 and 83 points. In fact, with the exception of a pair of games vs. Toronto, the last four games has seen Boston allow an average of just under 83 PPG. This is not good news for a Cleveland team whose only two victories in the last six games have come by a combined eight points over Memphis and Milwaukee, the latter coming on a buzzer beater. Without LeBron, this team just doesn't score much, averaging a terrible 91.9 PPG at home this season. Speaking of LeBron, the Cavs will be pointing towards a Thursday night showdown on TNT vs. Miami here at home in what will be James first return 'home.' Looking ahead is not what you want against a revenge-minded Celtics team. Boston is our 15* Revenge Game of the Week.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Pacers / Kings Under 190.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
The Pacers have seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of 15 to start the year including in 4 of 6 on the road; on the 28th they upset the Lakers on the road 95-92, the total staying well below the number of 204.
Over the last 2-seasons the Pacers have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in 30 of 57 when playing the roll of favorite.
On the other side of the court: The Kings have seen the total go "under" the number in 9 of 15 games to start the year including in 6 of 9 in front of the home town crowd; last time out they lost at home to Chicago 96-85, the total staying below the number of 191 1/2.
Keep in mind that over the last 2-seasons this team has seen the total go "under" the number in 18 of 31 when playing with 2 days of rest; also in 13 of 18 after scoring 85-points or less.
Bottom line: It must also be noted that in 7 of these teams last 10 played at ARCO Arena the total has indeed also gone "under" the number.
"This is a big win for us to come into L.A. and beat the world champions on their home court," said Pacer Danny Granger. "It gives us a lot of motivation and confidence on this West Coast road trip."
Indiana will look to continue its dominant defensive play tonight against a struggling Kings side.
No need to overanalyze this selection...
6* play on the UNDER!
Rocketman
3* Indiana State +16.5
I feel like this will not be a high scoring game giving the double digit underdog a very good chance of covering. Sycamores are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. I currently use 6 different sets of my own unique power ratings to handicap College Basketball. My power ratings for this game has Notre Dame winning by only 15.19 points, 8.67 points, 10.34 points, 16.36 points, 9.4 points and 15.48 points for this one. We'll play Indiana State as a Double Dime tonight!
The Duke's Sports
Ole Miss (+3) for 2 Units
The Rebels have a good recent history of performing well early in the season under Kennedy and we'll grab the points here. The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 on the road, including 4-1 ATS as a road dog. They're also 6-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. They've got a good core group which went to the Final Four of the NIT last year. Senior PG Chris Warren is solid at dribble penetration and either finding one of his solid supporting players or taking a high percentage shot. Ole Miss has surprisingly good depth --Gaskins stepped in the other night for Buckner and delivered --, respectable defensively at this stage of season, and make better decisions with the ball than Miami U, which has had some turnover problems early. The 'Canes are just 3-13 ATS on Tuesdays and won't have an easy time with the Rebels tonight.
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia +3.5
Florida St +4
KELSO
25 UNITS OLE MISS +3
10 UNITS WESTERN CAROLINA -3
10 UNITS INDIANA -4
10 UNITS INDIANA UNDER 190
5 UNIT PARLAY INDIANA & UNDER
3 UNITS IOWA -2
Stephen Nover
UTEP
Helmut
Northwestern Over 136.5