DR BOB
NBA Opinion
L.A. Lakers (-5 ½) over MEMPHIS
The Lakers have lost consecutive games for the second time this season, but I expect them to bounce-back against the 7-10 Grizzlies. Los Angeles is 37-12 ATS when not laying 11 points or more against teams with a win percentage of less than .450, including 2-0 ATS this season, and they should be focused for this game after dropping two straight contests.
College Opinions
Florida Atlantic (+10 ½) over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mississippi State had the luxury of having shot blocking stud Jarvis Varnado patrolling the paint for them the last few years, but Varnado left for the NBA and so did the Bulldogs’ defense. It’s tough to replace a guy that swatted 4.7 shots per game while leading the team in scoring while shooting 58% from the field and also pulled down 10.3 rebounds per game. Through 4 games Mississippi State’s compensated defensive efficiency went from 0.11 points per possession better than average to slightly worse than average this season and that’s a difference of about 8 points per game. The Bulldogs’ average game rating so far this season has actually been about 9 ½ points worse than their rating last season, but I actually expect them to be better than that going forward. Florida Atlantic is a decent Sun Belt team and the Owls apply to a very good 87-20-3 ATS situation tonight. My ratings using this year’s games only would favor Mississippi State by only 9 points, but my actual ratings, which take into account variance and certain expectations on team performance, favor the Bulldogs by 11 ½ points. The difference is that the loss of Varnado and point guard Dee Bost should have made the Bulldogs 6 ½ points worse based on their statistics instead of 9 points worse than last season’s rating and I’m more inclined to think the difference is variance. With that being the case, I think the line is a bit lower than it should be and I’ll only lean with FAU at +10 ½ points. However, I’d take Florida Atlantic in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more.
PORTLAND (-4 ½) over St. Louis
Portland has covered the spread all 4 times that they’ve been favored this season and the Pilots are now 20-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 12 points or less. St. Louis, meanwhile, is 0-12 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games away from home. I’ll lean with Portland based on the team trends.
Tommy Gun
2* Blazers -3.5
2* Spurs -4
Joe D'Amico
2* Celtics -7
2* Spurs -4.5
2* Syracuse -17
Larry Ness
8 Portland U
8 New Mexico State
8 Missouri
7 Michigan
10 Lakers
8 Spurs
8 Celtics
PPP
3 Celtics
3 Portland U
4 Georgetown
EZ Winners
2 Illinois -6
ASA
3 Blazers -3.5
3 Indiana State +16
3 New Mexico State +4.5
California Sports
3 New Mexico State
3 Long Beach State