The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB NBA PLAYOFF PAYOFF
Dallas -3.5
Teddy Covers
Dodgers
Astros
Mavericks
The Duke's Sports
San Antonio Under (194') for 3 Units
As an "under" player, you can be comfortable knowing that veteran defensive minded coaches Popovich and Carlisle have had 2 days to make adjustments consequently, the Mavericks will want to push the ball up the floor - utilizing their speed and fast break potential while the Spurs will be more focused on stopping transition by getting back quickly on defense and turning this into a half court game. We'll look for the latter to unfold tonight after all, Popovich is 1-4O/U on 2 days rest and 2-8 O/U after allowing 100 or more points previously. The Spurs are also 7-17 O/U as a road dog in this spread range. The Mavericks, on the other hand, are 1-6-1 O/U in their last 8 at home. And consider this: in the last 5 games of this series at Dallas, the average score was 183 ppg; furthermore, the highest score of those was Sunday (194), and we're including the OT score earlier in the season (November 18th) that combined for 183 points. With the playoff atmosphere at a fever pitch involving two well disciplined teams, we'll stay "under".
Jeff Benton
15 Dime San Antonio Spurs
So far, the old “zigzag” theory has applied to four of the six playoff series that have completed two games. The Thunder, Suns, Bulls and Jazz have all bounced back from Game 1 non-covers to cash in Game 2 (and in the case of the Suns and Jazz, they won outright after losing Game 1). Expect this trend to continue tonight in Dallas, as San Antonio will finish the job it failed to finish in Game 1.
On Sunday, the Spurs gave the Mavericks a 48-minute battle, but fell short 100-94 as a 4½-point underdog. When you look inside the boxscore, three things stand out: 1) Dirk Nowitzki was unconscious, going 12-for-14 from the field for a game-high 36 points; 2) Dallas shot a whopping 20 more free throws than San Antonio and were +13 at the foul line for the game (in fact, San Antonio had four more field goals and shot better from the field and lost by six); and 3) the Spurs got absolutely nothing from anyone beyond the Big Three of Tim Duncan (27 points), Manu Ginobili (26) and Tony Parker (18). In fact, George Hill (who started over Parker despite the fact Hill is bothered by a sore ankle) contributed zero points and zero assists), while Richard Jefferson had just four points on 1-for-4 shooting).
Look over those three key points again, and realize that despite all that, the Mavericks still only won that game by six points (and only covered the spread by 1½ points – and had the Spurs corralled a couple of rebounds in the final 45 seconds and/or fouled down by eight points after not getting those rebounds, the spread-cover easily could’ve gone the other way).
Here’s the point: Nowitzki is great, a Top 10 player in this league, but there’s no way San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich is going to allow him to go for 36 points on 12-for-14 shooting again tonight – no way in hell. On top of that, even though Dallas is at home again, I cannot fathom we’re going to see the kind of free-throw discrepancy we saw in Game 1. Finally, I’ll be shocked if Parker doesn’t start this game, and I’ll be equally as shocked if San Antonio doesn’t get some more production from its role players (Hill and Jefferson in particular).
One last point to make: Yes, the Mavericks – one of the worst spread-covering teams in the NBA all season long and THE worst spread-covering team at home – has cashed in all six games during its current six-game winning streak, including three straight covers at home (with two of those coming against San Antonio). It’s the first six-game ATS run for Dallas since the start of the 2006 playoffs – a total of 367 regular-season and postseason games.
Well, the law of averages are bound to work against the Mavericks, and it’s going to be tonight. After all, you have to go back to December 2001-January 2002 for the last time the Mavs cashed in seven straight times. We’re talking 798 regular-season and playoff games! I’m sorry, but I’m playing the percentages here. Take the points with the veteran, playoff-savvy Spurs, who are still on an 18-8 SU and ATS dating to the end of February and who haven’t suffered three straight losses since the end of January.
MICHAEL CANNON
25 DIME Dallas Mavericks
10 DIME Chicago White Sox
James Patrick Sports
5* Spurs
King Creole
2* Spurs Over 194
Executive
250% Magic
Wunderdog
4 Units Boston Bruins -125
5 Units LA Kings +1.5
Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
NY Yankees w/Hhughes -148
JB Sports
3* San Antonio
3* Portland
The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections
NBA TRIPLE PLAY PLAYOFF WINNER
Charlotte +9
Street Rosenthal
*200 Milwaukee Brewers -131
*200 Philadelphia Phillies -144
*200 New York Yankees -145
DB SPORTS CONSULTANTS
3* Pittsburgh +122
2* Chicago White Sox -110
2* San Antonio +3.5