Chip Chirimbes
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles' Dan Haren had a great outing in his first start of the season going seven innings and allowing only one run while striking out six without walking a batter get the start at Tampa Wednesday afternoon. Haren is 5-2 lifetime over the Rays with a career ERA of 2.74 in over 62 innings. Tampa is just not the same with all the defections and Longoria's absence won't help.
Totals 4 U
Top Plays
LAA/TB OVER 7.5
NYK/Phil UNDER
NJ/Det UNDER
Houst/NO UNDER
Regular Plays
Wash/Ind UNDER
LAC/OKC OVER
Sac/SA UNDER
LAL/GS OVER
Pitt/Cards UNDER 7.5
SF/SD UNDER 6.5
NYM/Phil OVER 9.5
RSox/Clev OVER 9.5
Platinum Plays
Top Play
Det Pistons
Medium Play
Dall Mavs
Regular Plays
Ind Pacers
Lakers
WSox
SF
Rocketman
5* Tigers
Jimmy Boyd
5* Philadelphia -4.5
Ben Burns
I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. Both teams are off losses last night. The Leafs' loss, which came in a shootout, officially killed their postseason hopes though, something which had already happened to the Devils on Saturday. Having been officially eliminated, after an excellent effort just to get back in the race, the Devils followed it up with a loss. I expect the same thing to happen to the Leafs tonight. After last night's loss, Toronto goalie James Reimer noted: "We played our hearts out, we did everything we could. We've fallen short right now but I'm proud of the way we battled for the last couple months ... " Having "played their hearts out" for months, its only natural for Toronto to experience a "letdown" here. (Its also worth noting that the Leafs are just 15-29 the past few seasons, when playing the second of back to back games.) The Devils, who haven't lost three in a row since early January, have now had time to "recover" from falling short of the playoffs. I expect them to be the team which has more energy tonight and for that to translate to two points.
I'm playing on the Isles and Bruins UNDER the total. These teams last met here in December. That game had an O/U line of five. Today's line is 5.5. While the difference might sound marginal, I feel that it provides us with very fair value. Note that the UNDER is 14-8 in games here which had an O/U line of 5.5. Also, with the Bruins off a 5-3 loss, note the UNDER is 10-5-2 when the Bruins were off a loss by two or more goals. Even with that high-scoring result, Boston's last five games are still averaging only 5.2 goals per game and the Bruins home games are averaging 5.3 goals on the season. The Isles are off a 4-2 loss vs. Carolina. That's noteworthy as they've seen the UNDER go 17-10-2 after allowing four or more goals and 13-8-1 when off a loss by two or more goals. With both teams determined to bounce back with a better defensive showing, I look for those stats to improve here as this one proves lower-scoring than expected.
I'm playing on LA KINGS. The Coyotes won the first three meetings this season. However, the Kings have won each of the last two and I expect them to salvage the series split tonight. Both teams are battling for the 4th spot in the West, which means this could be a possible 1st round playoff preview. The winner of this game will officially clinch a playoff spot and will be alone in fourth place in the West with just two games to play. While there hasn't been that big a difference in the Coyotes home/road play, the Kings have been better at home. I expect them to really go all out here, in an effort to try and help secure home ice advantage for the first round. While both teams are off losses, I like the fact that the Kings were "embarrassed" in their last game, as it should add some extra incentive to bounce back here - not that they should need any more motivation. Defenseman Matt Greene noted: "It's a good lesson late in the year that you are never as good as you think you are. Especially if you're going to give a good team the opportunity to beat you like we did. We weren't up to par or anywhere close to where we need to be to get into the postseason." The Kings are 12-7 (+2.5) after a loss by two or more goals and 14-8 (+2.9) the last 22 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of five or less. During that stretch, the Coyotes were only 10-18 (-4.6) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. Playing on home ice, I expect the Kings to bounce back and earn the important two points.
I'm playing on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES. The Mets got grabbed yesterday's series opener, as they beat up on Cole Hamels. Through four games, both teams are now 3-1. Today, the second game of the series, features Pelfrey vs. Blanton. While the Phillies are still medium-sized favorites, this is the "cheapest" that we'll see them in the series. Yesterday, with Hamels on the mound, they were much larger favorites - and with Halladay slated to go tomorrow, that'll certainly be the case again for the finale. That said, I believe that today's matchup provides us with the best value. Blanton hasn't had the kind of longterm success that Philadelphia's "Big 4" (Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt) has had. Therefore, he doesn't get much attention. Those guys have all been "aces" though and Blanton is actually a very capable pitcher, in his own right. Indeed, he's arguably among the best "5th starters" around. Blanton's coming off an extremely solid spring, one which saw him go 2-1 and record a 3.19 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, over 31 innings. During that stretch, he walked only four batters, striking out 18. Anxious to prove that he deserves to be in the same rotation as the other four, I expect him to get off to a strong start. Note that Blanton enters the season having allowed four earned runs or less in 16 straight starts, dating back to last July. He went a minimum of six complete innings in 13 of those starts. The Phillies are 10-2 his last 12 starts and 10-1 his last 11 home starts. Blanton's teams are also a perfect 4-0 in his home starts (3 at Philly, 1 at Oakland) vs. the Mets. Blanton went a minimum of seven complete innings in ALL four of those games and he allowed only four combined runs. His teams won those four games by a combined score of 17-7, including a 2-0 shutout victory where Blanton got the better of Johan Santana. Pelfrey had won his first game in five straight seasons. That didn't happen this year though, as he got rocked in his first start, giving up five runs, four hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings. He's likely going to have to wait for that victory as this is clearly no easy venue. Note that the Mets are only 6-12 in Pelfrey's last 18 starts, 7-13 his last 20 on the road. In fact, they're only 1-7 his last eight road starts. I actually played against Pelfrey in his lone start at Philadelphia in 2010 and it ranked among my easiest winners of the entire season. Pelfrey got rocked and the Phillies won 10-0. It may not be quite that "easy" this time, however, I expect the end result to be the same.
I'm playing on BOSTON. Enough is enough. Expected to be a World Series contender, the Red Sox are off to an 0-4 start. There's no reason to panic though - and I feel that tonight will prove to be the perfect time to step in and back them. Matsuzaka gets the call and he's dominated the Tribe. He's 3-0 his last three vs. the Indians. The Red Sox won those games by a combined score of 16-5 with "Dice K" allowing only three combined runs in 22 innings. His last start here at Cleveland saw him allow a mere four hits over eight shutout innings. On the other hand, Talbot got hit hard in his lone start vs. Boston. He's got a combined 7.71 ERA in one start and one relief appearance against the Red Sox. The Red Sox are 125-84 (+8.1) the last 200+ times that they were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. That includes a respectable 21-13 (+2.9) mark in that role the past 2+ seasons. With Matsuzaka 5-1 last season when they were off a loss, I look for them to bounce back and finally enter the win column.
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While they may not have Kevin Love, I like how this one sets up for the T-Wolves. Both teams lost close games on the road yesterday. While they're both now in a back-to-back spot, the T-Wolves had the previous two nights off, having not played since 4/2. Meanwhile, the Suns played on 4/3. That means that they're playing their third game, all on the road, in the last four days. Neither team will be making the playoffs. The T-Wolves have known this for ages though, while the news is still relatively recent for the Suns. With Phoenix off back to back games against top tier "playoff teams" (San Antonio and Chicago) and with games vs. the Hornets and Mavericks on deck, it may be easy for them to "go through the motions" a bit against a "non-playoff team" which they have dominated. The fact that they've been dominated by the Suns in recent years should provide the T-Wolves with some added motivation here. Playing at home, I believe this game will mean more to them than it does to the Suns. Note that the teams play again at Phoenix on 5/11. That's more likely to be the game that the Suns really care about and it means the T-Wolves better "hold serve" on their homecourt, or likely get swept in the season series, once again. The T-Wolves covered the spread in the game at Phoenix and are now 2-0 ATS the last two in the series. I look for them to be the "hungrier" and "fresher" team here and for that to lead to at least another cover.
I'm playing on the Clippers and Thunder to finish OVER the total. These teams have both been involved in a number of 'unders' recently, including one against each other at LA last week. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a lower O/U number to work with. I believe it will prove to be too low. While LA road games are averaging 201.3 points, Oklahoma City home games are averaging a high 207.8. The OVER is 23-15 here. With both teams having played yesterday, note that the OVER is 30-20-1 the past few seasons, when the Thunder were playing the second of back to back games. During that stretch, the OVER was 38-25 when the Clippers played the second of back to back games. The Clippers have seen the OVER go 15-9 the past few seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. Going back further finds the OVER at a lucrative 66-41-2 their last 109 in that role. Both 2011 meetings have had O/U lines of at least 205. Tonight's was lower to start with and has come down from its opener. With both teams off low-scoring wins last night, which may cause them to "relax" a little defensively tonight, I look for this one to prove the highest-scoring of the season series.
Sean Higgs
5* Angels/Tampa UNDER
Going UNDER here. Both these teams haven't scored much. The Rays have looked terrible at the plate. They send out Hellboy this afternoon looking for their first win. I expect him to build on the success he had at the end of 2010. Haren should be able to keep this lineup in check and I would go under 4 runs here. Not much offense this afternoon.
4* Mariners
I'm back. I took the M's the last 2 days. Why wouldn't I take them here with at Top 5 pitcher. Texas is hot, but I will take King Felix here. Felix 4-1 at Texas and 7-3 overall vs the Rangers. Take them here as a pup.
4* White Sox/ Royals OVER
Going OVER the total here. Both these teams have been killing it lately. Bullpens used last night in a slugfest. Buehrle wasn't sharp in his last outing, but I can see him giving up 3 or 4 here. And there is not a snow ball chance in hell that Jeff Francis is giving up 1 run in 7 innings to this lineup. Welcome to the AL Jeff. Over has cashed 6 of the last 8 overall and 4 of 5 here in KC.
5* Tigers
Taking Detroit here. I will lay the small line here with Verlander. Again, we are getting a top tier arm going against a 4 or 5 starter. Verlander 7-0 his last 7 starts vs the O's and 4-0 last 4 starts in Baltimore.
4* Oakland
Taking Oakland here. Small play here on the A's. I like to come back and play teams after committing 3 errors in a game. These guys are pros and that is flat out terrible. It also cost them the win. This is one of top defensive teams in the league and it looked like amateur hour last night
Lenny Del Genio
15* White Sox
Larry Ness
10* Hornets
10* Tigers
8* Phillies
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Mavericks -4.5
3 Units Magic -6.5
Keith Glantz
25* Orioles
25* Phillies
25* Hornets
25* Raptors
Brandon Lang
20 Dime Braves +100
Chris Jordan
Athletics +105
Timberwolves +3.5
Lakers/Warriors Under 202
Joseph D'Amico
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +11
As you all know, Oklahoma City has clinched a playoff spot while L.A. is out. These two teams met on Saturday with the Clipper’s beating the Thunder, 98-92. That victory gave Los Angeles 2 wins in the teams 3 meetings this season. It doesn’t look like OKC can improve on their playoff situation. The team seems to be in line to face Denver in the first round. Blake Griffin is from Oklahoma City. I expect the standout Forward to dazzle his hometown crowd tonight. Griffin and Guard Eric Gordon have had much success this year vs. the Thunder. Kevin Durant is leading the NBA in scoring with 27.8 PPG. However, against the Clipper’s, the Forward has averaged 20.0 PPG and 35% shooting. Laying DD’s is not something that OKC has been successful in doing as they are 1-3-1 ATS their L5 laying 10+ points. This is way too many pints to be giving to a Blake Griffin-led Clipper’s squad. L.A. is 10-2 ATS their L12 games played at OKC, 17-7 ATS their L24 overall vs. OKC, and 6-2 their L8 vs. teams with a winning record. OKC is 3-7-1 ATS their L11 vs. the West, 1-3-1 ATS their L5 at home, and 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. the Pacific. Take Los Angeles.
Tim Trushel
20* Mavs Under