RAS
Cal Poly -2
Northern Iowa -1
George Mason -12.5
Jimmy Boyd
5* Minnesota +10.5
3* LA Clippers +7.5
3* Creighton +8
Chris Jordan
300* George Mason -12
Crown City Sports
2* Columbus /Nashville Under 5
Don Wallace
Orlando +2
Denver -8.5
Utah -8
Ben Burns
10* Heat -12
10* Clippers +7
9* Lakers / Rockets Over 205
8* Wild
David Malinsky
4* DALLAS over MINNESOTA
Efficient markets adjust. When the proper price is not placed on a commodity it does not sell, so the price must be adjusted until it reaches the proper level. And many times when we find an extreme situation, the markets adjust too far, giving away something valuable at a bargain rate. That is what we have here. Any play on the Mavericks as a home favorite will appear to be running into a wall, given the 13-34 ATS tally in the last 47 in the role. But tonight’s line is a prime example of the markets being efficient, and taking full account of that trend in the setting of the line, instead of focusing on the true abilities of the two commodities.
At 13-4 the Mavericks are an elite team. They are the only team in the NBA to rate at #8 or better on both our Offensive and Defensive ratings, and are also #11 in rebounding. They have size, depth, experience and chemistry, and the more that Caron Butler (42 points in the first two games of this home stand) and DeShawn Stevenson (shooting 50 percent from 3-point range) show on offense, the more room that Dirk Nowitzki finds to operate. Meanwhile the additions of Tyson Chanlder and Brendan Haywood have made it an entirely different defensive presence around the basket.
So consider these matchups. The #6 offense vs. #27 defense. The #8 defense vs. #29 offense. A team that is #6 in assists vs. a defense dead last at #30 in allowing them. A team at #6 in point differential vs. one that is also dead last in the most important category of all. And we could go on and on. Yet we are only looking at a -10 here, after the Timberwolves were in the range of +16.5 at Miami, +18 at Orlando, and +16.5 against the Lakers on the road earlier, and were +9 vs. the Lakers and +7.5 vs. the Spurs at home last week. And it all has to do with not the true quality of these teams, but rather that Dallas well-known ATS mark as a home favorite. But we sense the Mavericks ready to turn that around at the very time that the markets are adjusting too far. It has been a 2-0 ATS run as a home favorite on this home stand, and both games were much better than the final score can show. They beat Miami by 11 in an awful setting, playing the 4th game in five nights, and coming off of a draining road win vs. rival San Antonio the previous evening. On Monday they covered vs. Houston without trying much at all in the second half, building a lead of 22 points, and with no starter even reaching 30:00 of court time. It is the fact that the starters played so little that night, with Rick Carlisle giving them much of the evening off after that tough schedule cycle of last week, that sets this up so well. Now they actually get a chance to put a game plan together for the hapless Timberwolves, while also having tomorrow off, which means the focus and energy to throw a KO punch. It translates to easy scoring opportunities vs. a witless defense that can be broken down, and an explosive performance that renders this spread as being quite short.
John Ryan
Game: Florida at Central Florida
Prediction: Central Florida
25* graded play on Central Florida as they take on Florida set to tip at 7 PM EST. This game is being played in the Amway Arena in Tampa, Florida serving as a neutral court venue for both teams. UCF is a very good and vastly unknown shooting team. Few people have ever heard of Central Florida, but they will after this game. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a strong hot at winning this game. UCF is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. Florida does not have the personnel to match up and defend the UCF offense. The model shows a high probability that UCF will shoot between 46 and 53% from the floor. Florida is just 4-13 ATS the last three seasons when allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 108-53 making 55.2 units using the money line since 1997. Play on neutral court teams after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games and with all five starters returning from last season. Here is a second system that has gone 51-51 making 41.4 units since 1997. The average play has been an impressive 181 dog. Play on neutral court dogs using the money line and are good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game on the season and after allowing 55 points or less. The UCF Knights are 5-0 and have shot better than 50% in four of the five games played. Head Coach has some strong ties to Gainesville having spent 11 years in Gainesville as an assistant under Billy Donovan and helping the program claim back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007. UCF gets on the radar with this game. Consider an alternative wager placing a 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. Take UCF.
Rocky Sheridan
New Orleans -8
Columbus -149
St Louis +127
Jason Johnson
St Marys vs San Diego State
Pick: St Marys +6.5
Despite the loss of some talent to graduation, St. Mary's is still a team that I think can find themselves in the tournament come March. The Gaels are off a one point loss to BYU, a top 25 team, and knocked off Texas Tech just a few days earlier. And when I say knocked off, I mean a 20 point win.
St. Mary's has covered all three of their lined games this season and they topped San Diego last season by 22 as six point favorites.
Take the points in a close game.
DAVID BANKS
THUNDER
HEAT
SPURS
CENTRAL FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
MEMPHIS
DUKE
AL DEMARCO
15 DIME UTAH JAZZ
Jeff Benton
30 Dime UNLV
15 Dime LA Lakers
UNLV
No question we’re dealing with line inflation here, as UNLV is off to a 6-0 start and the Rebels have caused the oddsmakers to adjust their numbers. Trust me, I live in Vegas and follow this program closely, and I can tell you that while most observers believed UNLV would be very solid this season, no one envisioned that the team would’ve cracked the Top 25 before December 1.
Well, the ranking is justified, as the Rebels are playing well on both sides of the court, averaging 77.5 points per game on 55.1 percent shooting and allowing just 57.8 ppg on 35 percent shooting (the latter figure ranking among the best in the nation. And unlike most teams at this point in the season, UNLV has actually scheduled some quality competition so far. Its last four games were against Wisconsin, Tulsa, Murray State and Virginia Tech. And only one team (Wisconsin, which lost 68-65 in Vegas) has come within nine points of the Rebels.
Illinois State is 5-1 on the season, but look at the Redbirds’ schedule: something called SIU-Edwardsville, Tennessee State, Arkansas-Little Rock (loss), South Dakota, Louisiana-Monroe and Jacksonville State. Translation: There’s no way Illinois State can be ready for what’s about to hit them tonight! And as it is, the Redbirds barely got past Tennessee State (73-68) and UL-Monroe (59-55), both at home. Make no mistake, this is going to be a long year for Illinois State, which lost its top three scorers from last year’s team that went 22-11.
Even though this is UNLV’s first true road game, it’s in a gym that seats less than 5,000 (meaning Illinois State’s home-court advantage will be significantly mitigated). Also, the Rebels cashed in nine of their last 11 roadies last year. Meanwhile, Illinois State is in pointspread funks of 1-7 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-5 in non-conference play, 0-5 after a SU victory and 0-4 against winning teams.
Bottom line: Normally, I’d be very hesitant to lay this many points with a team that’s A) coming off an impressive tournament victory and B) playing its first road game of the season. But I’m a big fan of Rebels coach Lon Kruger, and I don’t doubt for a second that he’ll have his players ready to go from the opening tip. If I’m right and UNLV avoids the pitfalls of a “trap game,” than Illinois State is in big trouble because the Redbirds – who have lost 20 in a row to ranked opponents since 1987 – simply don’t have the horses to run with the Rebels.
LAKERS
There’s no way the Lakers are losing their fourth game in a row tonight – no way in hell, not against a Rockets squad that’s just 5-12 on the season, including 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games.
To recap the Lakers’ slump: They fell 98-96 at Memphis last night, which came after narrow, last-minute losses at Utah (102-96) and to the Pacers at home (95-92). It’s just the second time since Pau Gasol arrived in L.A. in February 2007 that the Lakers dropped three in row, and you have to go back to the end of the 2006-07 season – we’re talking three full seasons – for the last time Los Angeles lost four in a row. And Kobe Bryant isn’t going to allow that streak to end tonight.
So assuming a Lakers victory tonight, the question becomes can they cover this pointspread? Well, for one thing you know Bryant is all about making statements and building confidence within his teammates, so he won’t be shy about pouring it on if given the opportunity. Also, L.A.’s last five wins were by margins of 7, 28, 17, 13 and 11 points, and they’ve already posted eight double-digit wins this season.
Meanwhile, the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing an average of 106.4 points per game on 46.5 percent shooting. That’s got to be uplifting to Bryant, Gasol and the rest of the Lakers, who have been held under triple digits in four straight games (scoring 96, 92, 96 and 98) after cracking the century mark in 12 of their first 13 games (and scoring 99 in the other contest).
Two final points to make here: 1) The SU winner has covered the spread in nine of L.A.’s last 10 games, while the winner has cashed in 12 straight Houston contests and 15 of the Rockets’ 17 contests this season; 2) the Lakers have cashed in five of their last six games when playing on back-to-back nights; and 3) Houston have failed to cover in 23 of their last 33 home games.
L.A. rolls and rolls big – by at least 15 points – over the Rockets, who are still without their two best players in big man Yao Ming and point guard Aaron Brooks (both injured).
Mike Lineback
4* Memphis
4* Oklahoma City/New Jersey Under 194.5
4* Charlotte/New Orleans Under 186.5
Wayne Root
Millionaire - NC St
Billionaire - UC Irvine
No Limit - Iowa St