Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 8,2010

David Malinsky

4* MISSOURI over VANDERBILT

The first true road game for any team can often provide a difficult challenge, especially when it is a young team having to break in some new faces. But playing a revenge-minded Missouri team on this court goes above and beyond for Vanderbilt, and we see the Commodores wilting over the course of these 40 minutes, which will feel more like 50 or 60 to them.

Missouri has gone 17-7 ATS as home chalk the last two seasons, many of those games tickets going into our pockets, as we take advantage of the fact that the markets continue to under-value Mike Anderson. Yes, there is a recognition for that “40 minutes of hell” that his teams bring, pressing all over the floor from start to finish. But the Tigers also do that with a great deal of savvy, not just frenetic energy, and once again we see those elements in place, with all five starters averaging in double figures, and they are #12 nationally in TO margin. They play hard, but they also play smart. They also come in under-valued here off of back-to-back ATS failures vs. Georgetown and Oregon in which big leads got away, but when we go inside the numbers it is a marvel that the Tigers were as close to the spread as they were, after those two opponents shot a remarkable 25-56 from 3-point range, and 38-43 at the FT line. If those percentages are anywhere near normal, this line is at least a basket higher.

The matchup brings major issues for a Vanderbilt team that won despite having all kinds of struggles vs. this defensive pressure at home LY, with an ugly ratio of 24 TO’s vs. only 13 assists. But the Commodores had A. J. Ogilvie inside (25 points), and Jermaine Beal on the perimeter, to steady things enough for an 89-83 escape. Those two have departed, and they will also be without Andre Walker tonight, a much more key cog than most will appreciate. Walker had 12 rebounds, six points, four assists, three blocked shots and two steals in LY’s win, and he has been putting up similar numbers across the board this season, but is out because of a bout of mononucleosis. His defense and ball-handling will be badly missed, especially since he was one of only two players in the rotation with a positive assist to TO ratio. Getting most of his minutes will be FR Rod Odom, who has nine TO’s vs. only one assist, and that forces Brad Tinsley to have far too much of a ball-handling role, which will limit his effectiveness as a shooter. Vandy simply is not built well to withstand a press on the road, and after turning the ball over 20 times vs. Beltmont and 23 vs. Western Kentucky at home last week, look for the Commodores to lose contact here as the home team generates a few spurts off of TO’s.