MustWinSports
5 DIME KENTUCKY/CONNECTICUT OVER
Jim Kruger
4 Units Warriors / Nets: Over 218.5
Eric Degarde
3* Houston Over 194
1* George Washington -1.5
Alex Smart
Missouri State: -16.5 / 4 units
Gonna continue to kick on the Skyhawks while they’re down. Tenn Martin has been bad in all facets of the game to date. While they rank above average offensively (#190 @ 69.3 PPG), their defense is a complete sieve as it’s allowed opponents to score an average of 80 PPG (#330) and shoot 49.3% from the field (#331). If that’s not enough, they’ve also allowed opponents to shoot at a 41.2% clip from beyond the arc (#330).
As for their opponent tonight, the Bears have been nothing short of sensational to kick start their ’09 campaign. They come into tonight’s contest a perfect 7-0 SU and have gone a $$$-making 5-2 ATS along the way. They’ve already cashed once for us this season when they went in ARK-LR and cruised to the 75-62 road win as 3.5-point chalks. They also have a solid outright home win against CUSA rep and conference title contender Tulsa. G Adam Leonard and F Kyle Weems lead the nation’s 141st ranked scoring offense (72.3 PPG) and 39th best shooting team (48%). If that doesn’t get you excited, the Bears are limiting opponents to just 59.4 PPG (#40) and a paltry 40.1% from the field (#89).
Though it failed to cover its last time out against Air Force, the Bears “D” more than held its own limiting the Falcons to just 48 overall points. Look for the offense to have a big night again in this spot against a Skyhawks “D” that’s been gouged by every one of its opponents. Take solace in the fact that Mizzou State is a stellar 10-2 ATS when they score 75-80 points in a game since 1997. With UTM allowing 80 PPG overall, look for that trend to improve by one after tonight!
Ball State: +12.5 / 3 units
The young Cardinals suffered an embarrassing home defeat to Butler their last time out in a game they shot just 31.7% from the floor and managed to tally just 38 overall points. They also turned the ball over 18 times, which made it close to impossible to compete against the Bulldogs. I’m looking for them to come out strong tonight against a Sycamores club taking the court for the first time in 10 days. Like the Cardinals, Indy State has a rough time scoring as well (68.1 PPG), and I really feel they’d have to shoot well above their seasonal mark from the field (45.1%) to cover a number of this magnitude. Ball State has taken on a tougher slate of competition, and I believe that will carry them towards the ATS victory in this spot. Making this position that much sweeter is the fact that BSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road off a home loss the L/3 seasons.
Fairway Jay
4 Units Hornets / Timberwolves Under 196.0
DC Riley
5 Units Milwaukee Bucks -3
Matt Fargo
5 Units Minnesota Timberwolves: +4
The last time I ventured out on Minnesota was on Saturday and that resulted in an outright victory over Utah and this team is definitely turning a corner. After defeating Denver as 14.5-point underdogs on the road at the end of November, they have put together a five-game cover streak and this is significant since Minnesota went on a 1-10 ATS run prior to that. That included a 0-6 ATS mark at home but a loss to Memphis by a bucket on Wednesday ended that string as well and it has now covered two in a row at the Target Center. Timberwolves forward Kevin Love made his season debut against the Hornets seven weeks after he broke his left hand in a preseason game. He delivered an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double while playing half the game off the bench. His return is big as it adds more depth to the frontcourt and actually makes it a strength now. In three games he is averaging 15.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Last night Minnesota was stung with a bad shooting night as it shot 36 percent including 30 percent (3-15) from long range. Those nights are going to happen. New Orleans has no business laying wood on the road. The Hornets are 1-9 away from home this season and the lone victory came in Los Angeles against the Clippers and not the Lakers. In 20 games, the home team is 17-3 in New Orleans games this season so it is obviously that the host has had an edge all season. The linesmakers have no choice here but to make the Hornets a favorite and despite being 9-11, they are somehow still a very publicly backed team and that is certainly the case again tonight as the betting action is all over New Orleans early in the cycle. As a favorite of three points or more, the Hornets are 1-5 ATS on the season and this includes a cover loss just last week at home against Minnesota. The Hornets were favored by 9.5 points in that game and based on the venue switch and simple math, they should be favored by a point and a half at the most. The last meeting in Minnesota came last January and the Timberwolves were favored by a point in that game. Since then, Minnesota has remained pretty level while the Hornets have digressed considerably. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and this season they are 0-3 ATS against teams that have a winning percentage below .250. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. 5* Minnesota Timberwolves
LT Profits
4 Units Western Michigan -2.5
3 Units Cavaliers / Houston Rockets: Under 194.5
Ron Meyer
10* WiscGreen Bay (+5) over Wisconsin
5* Saint Josephs (+15½) over Villanova
20* Connecticut (-1) over Kentucky
Alex Smart
4 units Buffalo: +8.5
RAS
San DIEGO +5.5
Providence +2
BUFFALO +9
BOISE ST +1.5
BEN BURNS
CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH!
I'm laying the points with ARIZONA. The Bulldogs come in as the 'hotter' team. However, in my opinion, the Wildcats are still the much 'better' team. The fact that LA Tech enters tonight on a winning streak, while Arizona is on a losing streak, has worked in our favor in two ways. For starters, its helped to keep tonight's line relatively low, as it could easily be much higher. Additionally, it should provide the Wildcats with plenty of motivation.
Yes, LA Tech brings an impressive 7-1 record to the table. However, when compared to Arizona, the Bulldogs have played a very soft schedule. Give the Bulldogs credit for scoring a minor upset vs. TCU, as that was somewhat impressive. However, the only time that they really stepped up to face an opponent of this level (at New Mexico on 11/21) they were crushed by a score of 81-52.
Arizona, on the other hand, has faced Wisconsin, Colorado, Vanderbilt, UNLV and Oklahoma in its last five games. That's a major difference. In other words, while the Bulldogs will be stepping up in class, the Wildcats will be stepping down.
Despite their strong start, the Bulldogs are still just 1-2 ATS in their road lined games. Conversely, despite their slow start, the Wildcats are a profitable 3-1 ATS when listed as favorites. The only time that they didn't cover was vs. UNLV - and that was 2-point loss in overtime. Looking back further and we find the Wildcats at a highly profitable 13-4-1 (16-2 SU) the last 18 times that they were laying points.
New coach Sean Miller has plenty of talent on his team with numerous scoring options. I expect them to show off that talent tonight, putting it all together en route to a double-digit victory. *10 CBB Blowout GOM
Mike Rose
5* HOFSTRA -8
LT Profits
4* VALPARAISO/PURDUE UNDER 147.5
TEDDY COVERS
Manhattan: +7.5 3 units
There’s not a whole lot separating Manhattan and Hofstra these days in terms of talent. These New York City schools have faced off against one another in each of the last three years. The final scores of those games? 65-61, 73-71 and 79-77, with two of the three going into overtime. Clearly, recent series history tells us to take a good, hard look at the underdog.
We cashed a ticket betting against Hofstra last week, as home chalk against Fairfield. That was certainly not the Pride’s first failure as home favorites this season. We saw them lose outright at home to Charlotte, and failed to cover the number as eight point home chalk against Yale. As a team, Hofstra is shooting just under 43 percent from the floor; and under 29 percent from three point range; not atypical of teams that lack any sort of dominant low post presence.
Hofstra’s shooting woes aren’t going to be helped by the Jaspers intense defense. For the season, Manhattan has held foes under 37 percent shooting from the floor, while holding teams to an 0.76 assist-to-turnover ratio. Manhattan has proven they can win in hostile environments, fresh off a 14 point victory as road underdogs at Cansius in a very similar price range (+6 there). Expect this meeting to be every bit as competitive as the games from each of the last three years. 3* Take Manhattan.