Jeff Benton
25 DIME: PHOENIX SUNS
I’m applying my “1-2-3 Cancun” test to this one.
See, several years ago – right before their run of three straight NBA titles – the L.A. Lakers were losing to Utah in the deciding game of a playoff series when they called a timeout late in the fourth quarter. The players broke the huddle with the familiar “1-2-3” chant, only guard Nick Van Exel ended his by uttering “Cancun!” Van Exel knew the game, series and season were over, and his mind was already on vacation.
Well, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Portland Trail Blazers will be having their own “1-2-3 Cancun” moment in Phoenix tonight. Really, other than the New Jersey Nets, I can’t think of a team looking forward to the All-Star break more than the banged-up Blazers (who get six days off after this game). As I noted yesterday in my analysis on the Thunder-Blazers game – when I backed Oklahoma City with a 25 Dime winner – Portland has been ravaged by injuries. This team has lost two centers (Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla) for the season; solid forward Travis Outlaw has missed 43 games with a foot injury; and point guard Brandon Roy – the team’s heart and soul – has missed 11 games in a row and 13 of the last 14 with a hamstring injury, and he won’t be back until after the All-Star break (if then).
Adding injury to insult, last night forward Martell Webster (averaging 10.8 points and 4 rebounds per game) got undercut near the basket and fell hard to the floor, injuring his back. He walked off under his own power and missed much of the rest of the game. Though Webster is expected to play tonight, who knows how effective he’ll be, as back injuries are killer for athletes.
Regardless of how effective Webster will be, how tough a spot is this for Portland, which has lost three in a row and seven of 11 (all without Roy)? The few Blazers who are healthy expended a ton of energy last night, as they fell behind 14-2 to start the game, battled back to tie it at 41-41 at halftime and took a two-point lead into the fourth quarter … only to completely run out of steam over the final 12 minutes, as the Thunder outscored Portland 30-16. Here’s how bad things were last night: Four Blazers – Webster and guards Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Steve Blake – missed a combined 19 of 22 shots and finished with a combined eight points as Portland finished with its lowest point total since scoring 76 points at the Lakers on Opening Night … of LAST season!
Now, after an overnight flight to Phoenix, the Blazers limp right back onto the court 24 hours later. They also have to face a Suns team that: A) has won and covered five games in a row; B) has been resting since Friday, when it capped a perfect four-game road trip with a 12-point win at Sacramento (its last three wins on the trip – at New Orleans, Denver and Sacramento – came by 9, 12 and 12 points); C) is 18-6 at home this year; D) will push the pace all night long (the Suns average 110 ppg overall, 113 ppg at home and they’ve topped triple digits in 11 straight games and 23 of the last 24); and E) has defeated Portland nine straight times in Phoenix.
Not only have the Suns won nine in a row against the Blazers at US Airways Center, but those nine wins came by an average of 16.9 points per game. And I guarantee you this: None of those nine games were played under the kind of circumstances that surround this one, circumstances like Phoenix coming in off of four days rest and playing very confidently during a five-game winning streak; Portland traveling after a rough home loss the night before in which it scored its fewest points in 154 games; the Blazers coming in battered and bruised and without their best player for a 12th straight game; and the All-Star break looming for both teams (Phoenix is eager to take a six-game winning streak into the break; Portland is just eager to get some time off).
Throw in the fact that the favorite is on an 18-7-1 ATS run in this rivalry, the home team has cashed in the last five, the Suns are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 games against the Blazers, and Portland is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Phoenix, and this is an absolute no-brainer! Lay the chalk with the Suns, who should enter the fourth quarter with a 20-point lead and cruise home from there.
KELSO
25 Units UTEP -3.5
15 Units Clippers -1.5
10 Units Jazz -5
5 Units Arkansas -6.5
4 Units Charlotte +9.5
3 Units Pacific -5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Ohio State/Indiana Under 138
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Coming off another outstanding performance, Evan Turner looks to lead the 13th-ranked Buckeyes to an eighth straight Big Ten victory Wednesday night as they visit the struggling Hoosiers.
Turner is averaging 26.0 points on 58.8 percent shooting with 6.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists in his last three games, and Ohio State coach Thad Matta doesn’t believe there is anyone playing better.
“If there’s one out there better than him, then I look forward to seeing him,” Matta said. “Because he’s playing really well right now.”
It's important to point out though that Ohio State has seen the total go "under" the posted number in six of ten vs. conference opponents this season and in four of six when playing against a team with a losing record.
On the other side of the court: Indiana (9-13, 3-7) is in the midst of its second straight rebuilding season under coach Tom Crean.
The Hoosiers dropped their fourth in a row Sunday with a 78-61 loss at Northwestern, and snapping this skid isn’t going to be easy.
After this game, Indiana visits No. 11 Wisconsin on Saturday followed by a home game against 10th-ranked Michigan State on Tuesday. The Hoosiers have played two games against ranked teams this season and have dropped 11 straight to Top 25 opponents since a 77-68 win over then-No. 14 Purdue on Feb. 19, 2008.
A sputtering offense is one of the big reasons the Hoosiers have had so much trouble. They shot 35.3 percent Sunday and are averaging 62.3 points on 38.0 percent shooting during their skid. Against Ohio State last month, Indiana shot 34.0 percent and was 4 of 18 from 3-point range.
Bottom line: When taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
6* UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Lakers +5
The Lakers will look to avenge an 8-point loss suffered two months ago here in Utah when they take on the Jazz at the Delta Center this evening. Los Angeles enters tonight fray knowing they are 9-0 ATS as dogs against unrested opponents, including 7-0 SU and ATS the last five years. With Utah just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in this series when going into same season revenge. look for Kobe and company to get their revenge here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on the LA Lakers.
Ron Raymond
New Jersey -155
Law of average pick here, Flyers won the 1st of the home and home series, Devils should take this one. When NEW JERSEY team played as a home team - Before a non conference game - With 1 day off - Coming off vs Atlantic division opponent the Devils are 11-3 SU in this role. Take New Jersey.
Tony George
Baylor -2.5
While Nebraska claims the spot as one of the best defenses in the Big 12, the last 5 games they have allowed 67 pgg, the same total as Baylor in their last 5 games. NU is 1-7 straight up their last 8 games, and in their last 5 games have managed 59 ppg on offense. Do the math. Baylor can light it up, are simply a far better team and explosive at times on offense. Baylor off a brutal loss at Texas AM on Saturday, I do not see them losing 2 in a row here against the worst team in the Big 12, even on the road. Play 2 Units on Baylor.
Rocketman
New Orleans +4
Boston is 2-9 ATS this year after an upset loss as a favorite. New Orleans is 133-87 ATS since 1996 after a non-conference game. New Orleans is a solid 16-8 SU at home this year. Celtics are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Celtics are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Celtics are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Celtics are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Celtics are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Hornets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hornets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll play New Orleans for 4 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
Detroit -3.5
Both of these teams played last night on the road and won, but it took a little longer for the Kings, who need OT to outlast the Knicks in a 118-114 effort. Sacramento rallied from as many as 15 down to put an end to its six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Detroit was able to coast to a relatively easy 93-81 win at division rival Milwaukee, holding the Bucks to just nine first quarter points. The key here will be who can turn around in less than 24 hours and put forth a second consecutive winning effort and we say its the Pistons due in large part to the Kings previous efforts on the non-conference road. Indeed, last night's win in the Big Apple snapped an eleven-game road losing streak (1-10 ATS) vs. the Eastern Conference that saw Sacramento losing by an average of better than 13 points per game. We don't like their chances at all of a sudden turning things around as they are now allowing nearly 106 PPG away from Arco Arena and have just three wins total in 2010. One was against Denver without Carmello Anthony. The other was against Golden State sans its leading scorer Monta Ellis. That's a 3-17 SU record over 20 games and with such a short number here, they become impossible to back. Take Detroit.
KB Hoops
5* Pistons UNDER 198 *POD*
4* Celtics -5
4* Bulls +5
4* North Carolina +6
4* Ohio State -10.5
The Duke's Sports
Richmond (+5') for 2 Units
Richmond has consistently been playing well throughout the season with marquee wins over Mississippi State, Missouri, Florida and last Saturday over #21 ranked Temple. Back-court play has been outstanding with PG Anderson and SG Gonzalvez leading the modified old Princeton style offense RI likes the up-tempo game and if Richmond is successful at slowing down their attack, the Rams may have trouble defending the back-door cuts and kick-outs that fuel the Spiders' game. Richmond HC Mooney has done a great job in preparing the Spiders defensively and we'll look for them to continue to be disruptive vs the Rams. The Spiders are 13-5 ATS as a road dog and 18-7-1 ATS on the road vs a home team with a home winning % above .600. The dog in this series is 5-2-2 ATS. The Rams are a mere 8-20-1 ATS as a home favorite and just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite in this spread range. Richmond the call.
RAS
UC Irvine Ov 137
King Creole
2* Phoenix -8.5
While doing research for the PLAYBOOK basketball newsletter, I came across some strong REST Systems that collide on Wednesday night. The System pertains to teams playing with NO REST that will be off for the next 5 days (usually the All-Star break). And we'll be fading three such teams this evening.
23-48-3 ATS since 2001: All NBA road underdogs playing with NO REST.... before a break of 5 or more days. Our 'play against' qualifiers are the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Portland Trailblazers... who ALL played last night.
Larger Underdogs of 8 > points (Blazers) have gone 1-14 ATS vs any team playing off a SU ATS win (like PHOENIX).
20-8 ATS: All NBA home favs playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT SU win... before 5 or more days rest (SUNS). Non-division teams in this situation have gone 15-4 ATS.... and a PERFECT 13-0 ATS as favs of points playing off BB double-digit SU losses (Blazers).
0-4 ATS since Jan: All NBA road teams after scoring < 80 points at home (Blazers).
16-7 ATS: All WESTERN CONFERENCE home teams playing off 4 or more SU and ATS ROAD wins (SUNS). If the line in these games is < 12 points, these HOT hosts have gone 11-1 ATS!
Larry Ness
Eastern Conference "TOM"
Philadelphia/Toronto Over 208.5
The resurgent Philadelphia 76ers hope to secure a season- high sixth straight win tonight but it won't be easy. Eddie Jordan's club faces a surging Toronto Raptors team in search of their eighth consecutive home win tonight. The Sixers are coming off a 119-97 thrashing of the Minnesota Timberwolves in snowy Philadelphia last night. Andre Iguodala scored a game-high 24 points, and Elton Brand added 21 points and seven rebounds in that one. Both teams had come in with season-high four-game winning streaks, but it was the Sixers that continued to turn the corner in an otherwise disappointing season. Lou Williams helped the cause with 16 points and seven assists off the bench, while Thaddeus Young and Willie Green each scored 15 points for Philadelphia, which made 61.4 percent from the field in the first half to build a 22-point halftime lead (note: the total has in fact gone "over" the number in four of Philadelphia's last give overall). The Raptors, meanwhile, continued their dominating play on their home floor on Sunday when Chris Bosh poured in 36 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, helping Toronto to 115-104 win over the Sacramento Kings. Andrea Bargnani contributed 22 points and eight boards, while Hedo Turkoglu returned to the court and added 16 points after missing time with a fractured orbital bone. Rookie DeMar DeRozan also returned from a balky ankle to score seven points (note: the total has gone "over" in six of Toronto's last seven overall and in five of its last five at home). Both teams are playing great offensively and will look to finish strong heading into the All-Star break; play on the OVER.
3G Sports
10* Georgia Tech
Fairway Jay
20* Clemson Under